Setting The Pick – Don’t resist the tank

The brazen tank jobs being executed by the NBA’s bottom feeders are dominating the general discourse.  

Yes, there is high level basketball being played – we just watched a potential NBA Finals Preview in Boston against Oklahoma City.  

But everyone seems to be crying foul about the slew of bench units closing out games for teams like Toronto, Utah and Philadelphia. 

If you want to discuss wholesale changes to the current system, you won’t hear arguments from me.  

For the longest time, the worst team in the league had a 25 percent chance to draft first overall.  

The NBA Board of Governors amended that to 14 percent across the bottom three teams in 2019.  

As of now, that doesn’t seem enough. 

I don’t have the answers and that’s not what we’re here for in this article.  

We’re here to dissect what these teams are up to and how can we manipulate their intentions for our own gain.  

Just like the tanking teams getting their hands dirty, we need to do the same.  

If you’re betting purely for entertainment, all the power to you.  

This read is unfun.  

Let’s hunt some unders.  

Toronto Raptors 

Jamal Shead, A.J. Lawson, Jared Rhoden, Colin Castleton, and Orlando Robinson. 

That was Toronto’s closing five in the 118-117 loss to Washington where Shead’s buzzer beater was ruled a split second too late.  

Had it not been for that overturned call, the Raptors would be in the midst of a six-game win streak. 

If this was intended to be a tank, the front office must be rolling in their sleep.  

To their credit and head coach, Darko Rajakovic, they’ve done everything in their power to accommodate the tank.  
 
Not a single starter has averaged over 30 minutes, and none have averaged more than six minutes in the fourth. 

Bobby Webster was as explicit as he could be post-trade deadline, “their No. 1 priority is the NBA draft.” 

If you’re unwilling to get your hands dirty, I can’t fault you.  

But if we’re trying to capitalize on all this silly season behaviour, Scottie Barnes is the guy I’d target against Utah.  

His minutes are far below his season averages, this is a game that Toronto would ideally lose, and his shooting has been ice-cold of late.  

Over these five games, Barnes has averaged 16.2 points on 36.7 percent shooting from the field.  

His three-point shot is MIA, hitting just 2-of-13.  

The weakness of Utah’s defence is on the perimeter, but the closer you get to the rim, the more competent they get.  

After getting fined $100,000 for blatantly benching their healthy players, the Jazz will be forced to play Lauri Markkanen and Walker Kessler tonight.  

The Jazz don’t want this win but they’re being scrutinized closely.  

The beauty of taking unders is that if Barnes doesn’t play, your bet becomes void and your money is returned.  

If his finger sprain becomes an issue and exits early, your bet still cashes. 

If his shooting remains cold or has a minutes restriction, money in the bank.  

Lots of ways your under could go right.  

The pick: Barnes under point prop vs. UTA 

Utah Jazz 

No team has been as egregious and unapologetic with their tanking as the Utah Jazz.  

As referenced above, they were slapped with a $100,000 fine for violating the Player Participation Policy. 

Present day, they’re 15-51 with a 2.5 game cushion to remain in the bottom-three.  

They’re on the league’s longest losing streak at seven games. 

Over this stretch, Markkanen has only played one game.  

In a very similar manner to Toronto, Utah has been unusually balanced sharing minutes between the starters and bench unit. 

Markkanen’s point prop is set at 18.5 on FanDuel right now which isn’t far off his season average of 19.2 ppg. 

Reading the tea leaves, he’s their player I’d go after.  

In his return game against Memphis on Wednesday, he finished with 14 points on 28 minutes while shooting 35.7 percent from the field, 33.3 percent from three. 

The 28 minutes is what stands out.  

Let’s be honest, he wasn’t limited due to injury management. His minutes are being capped for the tank.  

There are two bonuses with this under bet:  

His shooting touch has been off since the trade deadline and is likely out of rhythm missing nine straight games. His splits since Feb. 7th are 42.6 / 31.6 / 100.0. 

Toronto’s defence has been dialed in over their six-game stretch. They own the third-best defensive rating during this period and hold opponents to the lowest three-point shooting percentage (30.6). 

The NBA will force Markkanen to play, but they can’t micromanage how many minutes he’s out there.  

The pick: Markkanen under 18.5 points (-102) 

Philadelphia 76ers 

Of all three teams in this article, none have more incentive to lose than the Sixers.  

After coming into the year with a 49.5 win total on FanDuel, they in the midst of a season from hell. 

From championship contenders, they’ve become the punching bag of the NBA with reports emerging of their intentions to trade Paul George in the offseason.  

Joel Embiid, George, and Tyrese Maxey are all but done for the season as they roll out the red carpet for their developmental players.  

The heightened incentive that Philly has?  

If their draft pick ends up seventh or higher, it gets sent to the Thunder as part of their 2020 trade involving Al Horford.  

Talk about the rich getting richer. 

After losing to Toronto on Wednesday night, the Sixers are hanging on by a thread sitting sixth from the bottom.  

But just because they are sixth-worst doesn’t mean they automatically keep their bottom-six pick.  

If the standings remain static, Philly has a 45.8 percent chance to keep their pick.  

If they fall one spot back, that jumps up to 63.9 percent.  

With Brooklyn only a half game behind, the juice is worth the squeeze. 

I’d capitalize on this scenario by parlaying Philly to lose combined with an under on Guershon Yabusele’s threes.  

The Pacers head into town as double-digit favourites.  

They are fighting for seeding and motivated to win. 

While Indiana isn’t exactly a defensive juggernaut, they’ve been aggressively taking away the three-ball from opponents.  

Since All-Star Weekend, they’ve allowed the fewest three-point attempts in the NBA.  

I’m counting Indy to stick with their mandate and Philly to favour younger developmental players like Adem Bona. 

The Pick: Two-leg parlay – Yabusele under 1.5 threes and Indiana first half / full time winner (-104)