Setting The Pick – Fade these season award leaders

The NBA Cup has provided a mini break for fans; a perfect time to reflect on the first third of the season.  

ESPN’s Tim Bontemps has released the first edition of this year’s NBA MVP straw poll, a great predictor of how that award is trending. 

As we bridge the gap between the NBA Cup and the trade deadline, which is less than two months away, several seismic shifts should be expected.  

Here are three awards I expect to be on the move in the weeks to come. 

Play-in for what?  

At the time of writing, the Denver Nuggets sit at 14-11, just one spot out of the play-in tournament. 

They’re coming off a concerning loss to the Portland Trail Blazers, a team that’s projected to finish bottom-five according to FanDuel.  

The last time a player won MVP with his team this far down in the standings was coincidentally Nikola Jokic’s current teammate, Russell Westbrook, eight years ago.  

Whether you agree or disagree, team performance is a major factor in MVP voting.  

Coming into the season, it was always understood that the reigning MVP would be held to unrealistic standards in order to win his fourth trophy in five years.  

Bill Russell and LeBron James are the only other players in NBA history to achieve the feat – sacred territory.  

The Joker has opened the season as the voting favourite in Bontemps’ straw poll with good reason.  

He’s second in points, rebounds and assists – an unthinking feat.  

His averages in points, threes-made, assists and steals are all currently career-highs. 

But if Denver were to fall into the play-in, I fear the voters won’t allow history to repeat itself.  

Both Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Giannis Antetokounmpo have compelling MVP cases. 

SGA has emerged as the league’s top two-way guard and leads an Oklahoma City Thunder squad that is a cut above the rest out West.  

The Greek Freak has put Milwaukee on his back and shepherded them through a tumultuous start.  

His supporting cast is worse than Jokic’s, yet they share the same record.  

Considering The Joker’s current +105 price on FanDuel, I’d rather have my money on either of the two players mentioned above.  

The Pick: SGA MVP, +250 and Antetokounmpo MVP, +500 

Spot the difference – Missi vs. Edey 

Yves Missi is currently the second choice for Rookie of the Year on FanDuel at +280.  

Here’s a comparison of his season averages versus Zach Edey’s.  

Missi – 26.0 mpg, 9.3 ppg, 8.6 rpg, 1.2 apg, 0.7 spg, 1.2 bpg 

Edey – 20.6 mpg, 11.1 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 1.0 apg, 0.8 spg, 1.1 bpg 

At pick 21, Missi was the fourth big man drafted this year, 12 spots behind Edey, the second centre off the board. 

Plain and simple, Edey is the better centre. 

If a big man is to win this year’s Wilt Chamberlain trophy, count on Edey to come through or even Donovan Clingan for that matter who’s priced at +7000.  

I believe Missi’s price is predominantly based on his role in New Orleans’ starting lineup; it’s not skill based.  

Even though Edey has alternated between starting and coming off the bench, his minutes have settling around the mid-20s.  

With the 65-game minimum not a requirement for ROTY, Edey won’t be penalized for his time missed this past month.  

Current front-runner Stephon Castle is by no means a runaway favourite for the award, especially now that he’s coming off the bench again.  

His impact on offence remains limited. I don’t think he can generate the same eye-popping stat lines as Jared McCain did.  

ROTY has been a crapshoot all season and remains open for business.  

Just one week ago, Edey was +7000 for ROTY.  

A tenfold drop in pricing deserves our attention. 

The Pick: Edey ROTY, +700 

What have you done for me lately?  

When April rolls around, how much weight will voters put into the start of this season?  
 
Recency bias is a real thing and as it stands, the Cavs’ 15-game win streak to begin the year remains fresh in our minds.  

But with a gauntlet schedule on the horizon, how quickly will that shine fade?  

Over the next two weeks, five of Cleveland’s next seven games come against championship hopefuls – Milwaukee, Philadelphia, Denver, Golden State and Dallas.  

I’d like to go on record saying, should the Cavs maintain their level of play, Kenny Atkinson is a slam dunk for Coach of the Year (-125).  

He has a great narrative as a first-year coach, one that was undeservingly let go by the Brooklyn Nets ahead of their big three era.  

He’s transformed Cleveland into a league-best offence after they wrapped up last season with the 16th-best offensive rating.  

However at -125, I can’t support the steep pricing. 

Last year’s winner, Mark Daigneault, finished with 89 of the 99 first-place votes.  

His odds didn’t flip to minus money until the last week of February. 

OKC went from a 40-42 team to 57-25 last season.  

With Cleveland’s win total set at 59.5 on FanDuel, they’re projected to improve by 11 games.  

If that’s where they land, Atkinson should hold up for COTY.  

Should the Cavs come down to earth or be forced to endure any prolonged absences, I continue to believe Houston and Ime Udoka will come knocking.  

Like Atkinson and his narrative for improving Cleveland’s offence, Udoka has transformed the Rockets into defensive juggernauts.  

I anticipate the buzz on Houston to continue growing as playoff seeding becomes more solidified.  

Houston was a .500 team last year and sat 11th in the West.  

They currently sit ahead of last year’s Western Conference winners, Dallas, and 2023 NBA Champs, Denver.  

Should they finish with homecourt advantage come April, I’m willing to bet that jump will garner more attention than Cleveland going from fourth to second in the East.  

The Pick: Udoka COTY, +350