Setting The Pick – Five instant opening night reactions

Every NBA team has officially taken the court and now’s the time to act on all your observations.

Season awards are on the move, player props are being adjusted, and injuries are already becoming a factor just one week in.

There’s still plenty of runway to apply your preseason leans but know that with each game you’re on the right side, FanDuel’s traders will be following suit.

I encourage you to be mindful of rotation decisions and stylistic changes applied by both existing and new coaching staffs.

Here are my five most noteworthy observations from this week:

1) RAPS SETUP FOR FAILURE EARLY

With Immanuel Quickley out, four of Toronto’s seven best players find themselves on the bench.

The concern with their 28.5-win total was always about late-season tanking but with all these injuries to open, even more pressure is being applied to this number.

The Raptors simply don’t have the depth to stay afloat if their core players are injured.

To make matters worse, Toronto’s schedule to start might be the worst in the NBA.

Thirteen of their first 15 games come against opponents who were in the play-in tournament or better.

Charlotte and Detroit are the only games in this stretch where Toronto might be listed as favourites, and that isn’t even guaranteed with their current injury report.

In a month from now, Toronto could be staring at a 2-13 record.

That would be a public relations disaster getting butts in seats, but from a front office standpoint, it may be what’s needed to justify a full-blown rebuild.

I’m not discounting the talent level of this team when healthy, but that’s unfortunately become a factor right from the get-go.

I’d consider the under on their win total for now and hope for a better number in the middle of November if you’re bullish on this team.

2) ZERO CHAMPIONSHIP HANGOVER FOR BOSTON

It’s not often you see a defending champ open the following season as motivated as this Boston squad.

Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown both have grievances from the off-season they want to act on.

Tatum was benched by head coach, Steve Kerr, during Team USA’s gold medal run. He was also snubbed for both the Larry Bird and Bill Russell trophies last playoffs.

Brown comes in angry after believing he was due to replace Kawhi Leonard on the American Olympic roster. Ironically, that spot was filled by his own teammate, Derrick White.

Whether there’s merit or not to their frustrations, these two look to be in mid-season form just two games in.

One way to capitalize on this is to cherry-pick individual three-point props for their core players.

The Celtics closed last season with the best offensive rating in NBA history and that was achieved by leading the league in three-point volume (42.5 per game).

Through two games this season, they’re up to 53.0 three-point attempts per game.

That offensive philosophy spills into another bet worth monitoring.

Head coach, Joe Mazzulla, has jumped into pole position for Coach of the Year at +800 on FanDuel.

With all his media availabilities, his personality and philosophies have made him a visible candidate for voters.

If Boston can put together another 60-win season with Kristaps Porzingis missing nearly half of the regular-season, Mazzulla will have a strong case come April.

3) OKC MIGHT GO FOR 60

Speaking of 60, the Oklahoma City Thunder look like a team poised for 60 wins.

FanDuel has their win total set at 57.5 and they’re +210 to have the league’s best regular-season record (odds tied with Boston).

With newly acquired centre, Isaiah Hartenstein, out for their opening contest versus Denver, I was concerned their lack of size could compromise them.

Instead, they put together a masterclass two-way performance in a 15-point victory over the league’s reigning MVP Nikola Jokic.

On a night where the Thunder shot 22.2 per cent from deep, OKC displayed their versatility getting 19 fast-break points while holding Denver to 35.7 per cent from the field.

They went nine-deep in their rotation and outscored Denver’s bench unit, 25 to 16.

They are one of the most balanced teams in the league and Thursday’s opening game confirmed that.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (+390) is the head of this monster and deservedly only sits behind Luka Doncic (+300) in MVP odds on FanDuel.

4) CHET HOLMGREN FOR DPOY AND MIP

The noise coming into this season was Victor Wembanyama taking over all the NBA awards.

He opened at -155 and +650 as the favourite for DPOY and MIP respectively.

After opening night, his rival Chet Holmgren is demanding your attention.

In a matchup against the world’s best player, Holmgren put together two steals, four blocks and 14 rebounds, anchoring an OKC defence that held Denver to under 100 points.

Last year, the Nuggets failed to reach that mark just eight times.

This Thunder roster is littered with defensive stoppers on the perimeter and will get added reinforcements when Hartenstein returns.

What jumped out Thursday night was Holmgren’s interior offensive game.

He went 11-for-13 on twos and displayed a lot more skill getting buckets off the dribble.

The way he was utilized offensively is worth monitoring as it opens the door to 20.0 ppg upside.

His defensive abilities are well-known, but if the offence catches up, going from 16.5 ppg to a 20+ ppg player puts him in All-Star territory.

5) NO ONE SHOULD BE FAVOURED FOR ROTY

At the start of this season, Canadian Zach Edey was the favourite to win Rookie of the Year priced at +290.

After the first slate of games, it’s fair to say, no one deserves to be the front-runner.

Of all the rookies in this year’s class, not a single one scored more than 12 points.

Edey himself had a miserable debut, fouling out in 14 minutes posting a measly five points and rebounds.

He was one of three rookies to open as a starter, Bub Carrington and Alex Sarr of the Wizards were the only other two.

The good news for bettors? A lot of value remains on the table if you can spot the winner.

Last season, Wemby was already minus money before playing a single minute.

With no clear candidate, there is room for a longshot to emerge.

The biggest mover on Opening Night was New Orleans centre, Yves Missi, who recorded 12 points, 7 boards, 1 steal and 3 blocks.

He was priced at +7000 coming into the season on FanDuel and now sits at +1700.