Setting The Pick – Injected Life

This year’s trade deadline reshaped the NBA landscape on a level we rarely see. 

An unexpected byproduct has been the revitalization of the league’s aging hall of famers.  

LeBron James, Stephen Curry, and Draymond Green have found themselves back in the circle of championship contenders, a reality that felt like days gone by.  

Instead, both the Los Angeles Lakers and Golden State Warriors have emerged from the deadline with 10-2 records, catapulting LA from fifth to second and Golden State from tenth to sixth out West. 

The championship odds for both teams have shortened drastically on FanDuel.  

The Lakers are currently +1300 after getting as high as +5500 in late January.  

The Warriors sit at +2500 after being +12000 prior to the trade. 

Going purely off the eye-test, all three of these legends are playing at a speed and intensity we haven’t seen in months.  

It’s great entertainment for fans.  

It also opens the door for betting opportunity as FanDuel tries to keep up with their newfound form.  

Here’s how I’d be approaching the three. 

LeBron James 

James looks faster and more intense these past 11 games than I can remember in years.  

The arrival of Luka Doncic looks to have injected newfound optimism; a greater hope exists for a fifth Larry O’Brien Trophy.  

Take a look at his averages before and after the trade:  
 
Pre-trade - 24.5 points, 7.8 rebounds, 9.0 assists, 2.2 threes made, 0.9 steals, 0.5 blocks 

Post-trade – 27.5 points, 9.5 rebounds, 6.4 assists, 2.9 threes made, 1.1 steals, 1.0 blocks 

The changes to his stat profile are clear and he’s admitted as much himself.  

“I’m a natural-born wide receiver, and he’s (Doncic) a natural-born quarterback, so it fits perfectly,” said James in a post-game interview.  

Playing alongside an elite playmaker like Doncic, James is finding himself more open than ever taking 4.1 catch-and-shoot three-pointers after attempting just 2.7 before the trade. 

His efficiency on those has also ballooned going from 40.8 percent to 51.1.  

The Lakers have also seen a slight uptick in fast break point frequency moving up from 12th to 7th after Doncic’s arrival.  

It’s clearly something they look for if you watch their games; one more outlet for James to up his scoring.  

Until the books take away his value, betting LBJ’s overs on threes is my best suggestion with points being a close second.  
 
The increased volume and shot quality seem sustainable.  

The pick: James over threes 

Stephen Curry

After failing to register a single 40-point performance over his first 42 games before Jimmy Butler’s arrival, Chef Curry has cooked up two in the past 12 games.  

He’s averaging 30.3 points per game, a significant leap compared to his 22.7 ppg prior.  

Even if you remove those two ‘anomalous’ 40-plus point games, he’s still averaging four more ppg than his pre-trade stat line.  

One thing that’s caught my eye is how Golden State’s rotations have changed, particularly in the first quarter. 

Curry has gone from 4.8 first-quarter points to 7.1 alongside Butler.  

Previously, Curry would occasionally get an earlier rest and rejoin the game with the bench squad at the end of the quarter. 

In 12 games post-trade, he’s never left the first and came back.  

Butler is the one who gets substituted early and rejoins the bench unit to close out first quarters.  

Curry has gotten extended run along the starters and seen his shooting efficiency skyrocket.  

He’s up to 54.5 percent in the first quarter over these 12 games versus 39.3 pre-trade.  

While his point and three-point props might be void of value, there’s still some untapped opportunity in his first-quarter scoring props given these rotation changes.  

The pick: Curry over first-quarter points 

Draymond Green 

While Green has also experienced a jump in offensive production, what stands out to me post-trade is how effective the Warriors have been at limiting centres without a traditional big man.  

Listed at 6’6”, Green is their centre with Butler the only starter taller, listed at 6’7”.  

Even though it’s a vertically challenged starting five, they’ve been extremely effective at limiting scoring around the rim.  

Here’s a list of traditional big men who’ve played the Warriors post-trade with their respective season averages:  

Nic Claxton – 8 points (10.1 ppg) 

Mark Williams – 12 and 12 points (15.5 ppg) 

Wendell Carter Jr. – 9 points (9.0 ppg) 

Domantas Sabonis – 14 points (19.5 ppg) 

Alperen Sengun – 10 points (19.3 ppg) 

As you can see, no one has gone above their season scoring average.  

Golden State allows the third-lowest shot frequency at the rim and second-least points in the paint.  

It’s resulted in them registering the third-best defensive rating post-trade.  

Butler’s defensive smarts afford Green more leeway to stick to his player in the paint.  

Moses Moody and Brandin Podziemski have proven to be capable young defenders. 

The sample size is large enough – Golden State’s defence has a clear strength that can be capitalized on given the right matchup.  

The Pick: Under points for opposing traditional bigs