Setting The Pick – Midseason Awards Check-In

Of all seven NBA player awards, Victor Wembanyama is the only preseason favourite still favoured to win.

He’s currently -550 to win Defensive Player of the Year on FanDuel after opening the season at -155.

Every other award has seen a new candidate rise to the top – some with shaky cases and some who seem inevitable.

As we approach the halfway point of the season, more and more players are being taken off the board with only the true contenders left.

At this point, there typically aren’t too many surprises with player awards.

Still, I want to run through the chalk options for all seven and walkthrough what the cases are against them.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, -330 to win MVP

The Oklahoma City Thunder exacted revenge on the Cleveland Cavaliers in a rematch of the two conference leaders on Thursday.

After their dominating victory, SGA’s price skyrocketed changing MVP from a two-horse race to a 1A / 1B situation.

I would give SGA a chalk rating of 7 out of 10.

Case against SGA:

Nikola Jokic seems like the only true contender to take away SGA’s MVP crown.

Giannis Antetokounmpo’s price at +4000 is enticing, but too many circumstances are required for him to usurp them both.

For Jokic to win his fourth MVP in five seasons, it was always going to require indisputable results.

So how is he in the running this year?

He’s averaging career-highs in four stat categories – points, assists, steals, three-pointers.

If we’re solely comparing stat lines, Jokic is more deserving. But there’s more to MVP than simply stats.

Two things need to happen for Jokic to reclaim the trophy:

1. Denver cannot finish worse than the fourth seed (where they currently are)
2. OKC needs to start losing games and finish with a three or four game gap over the second seed

If SGA and OKC finish in a tier completely removed from the rest of the West, their team success will be difficult to overcome.

Alexandre Sarr, +155 to win Rookie of the Year

Remember I said to expect few surprises at the halfway mark?

This is the one award where I firmly believe a dark horse candidate could still swoop in.

If Sarr wins this award, he’ll own the second-lowest scoring average of any ROTY in the 21st century at 11.8 ppg.

But playing for a Wizards team that is currently 6-33, his case is as thin as ice on a warm Spring day.

Chalk rating – 2 out of 10

Case against Sarr:

The No. 2 pick is essentially the front-runner of ROTY by default.

He hasn’t earned it. He’s simply the best of a bad class.

Unlike the other awards, ROTY does not require the 65-game minimum so there’s a world where a rookie could emerge with a hot run down the stretch and leapfrog the entire group.

In a hypothetical scenario, if No. 3 pick - Reed Sheppard, or No. 8 pick - Rob Dillingham, were suddenly given 25 – 30 minutes a night, they have the skillset to put up stats and exceed Sarr’s production.

This award has been a roller coaster - six different players have been the favourite at one point in time this season.

ROTY will remain wide open until game 82.

Victor Wembanyama, -550 to win Defensive Player of the Year

This one was locked by Opening Night.

The only thing stopping him was injury. After finishing runner-up last year, I can’t imagine the voters going another direction given his alien-like gifts.

Chalk rating – 9 out of 10

Case against Wemby:

He’s only missed five games thus far but if one bad injury gets him, the 65-game floor would be in jeopardy.

The only other threat would be if voters get fixated on San Antonio’s defensive rating which is currently 13th in the NBA.

Historically, team defensive rating is a critical factor in who wins DPOY. The winner usually requires a Top-5 defence.

Wemby is the exception.

Cade Cunningham, -135 to win Most Improved Player

The steam has been coming in hot on Cunningham and deservingly so.

He’s ticked three main checkboxes:

• First-time All-Star nod coming? Check.
• Across the board statistical leap? Check.
• Team success jump? Check.

The season-ending injury to Jaden Ivey should only help his case as more usage will fall on his shoulders.

Chalk rating – 5 out of 10

Case against Cade:

A No. 1 overall draft pick has never won this award since its inception in 1986.

Will voters factor that in or will they accept his jump in production as being sufficient?

It’s been five straight seasons that the MIP winner made their first All-Star Team the same year.

Given that precedent, I think an Evan Mobley, Tyler Herro or Jalen Williams would require that nod as well to remain in the hunt.

If any of these contenders were to miss out on All-Star Weekend, I’d almost say they’re guaranteed eliminated.

Of everyone in the chase pack, Mobley and Williams’ case is the most intriguing to me.

They have both made noticeable improvements and have been key cogs in the success of their respective conference-leading teams.

Team record doesn’t always factor into this award but their impact on winning might have voters favouring them as opposed to players like Norman Powell who has taken a 10-point leap in scoring production.

Payton Pritchard, -195 to win Sixth Man of the Year

It was only a month ago that Pritchard was -500 to win 6MOY.

His price has slipped slightly as other contenders have emerged of late.

Some All-Star players have found themselves relegated to the bench which has added new contenders into the mix.

Chalk rating – 5 out of 10

Case against Pritchard:

I have previously written this in an article - can Pritchard win 6MOY if he’s not even their best player off Boston’s bench?

Now that weeks have past, I’ll accept that he gives them the most pop of their reserves.

But in games against the best, he’s had some rough performances.

The Celtics recently had a four-game road trip against Minnesota, Houston, Denver and Oklahoma City.

Pritchard averaged 8.0 points, 2.5 rebounds and 2.8 assists on 21.8 minutes.

Horford off the bench played 31.0 over that same trip.

If he continues to go cold in games that matter, there are still a ton of capable candidates that have been thriving off the bench.

Kenny Atkinson, -450 to win Coach of the Year

With a win total of 48.5 coming into the season on FanDuel, oddsmakers were telling you they expected more of the same with Cleveland.

Fast-forward to the halfway mark this year and they’re on a 70-win pace.

Unless the Cavs eat some bad luck injuries or regress to a sub-60 win season, this award is Atkinson’s to lose.

Chalk rating – 8 out of 10

Case against Atkinson:

If you’ve been reading this column, you know I’ve been banging the Houston Rockets drum.

Head coach, Ime Udoka, got down as low as +300 for this award on December 12th when Houston rose up to the second seed.

How’ve they done since?

They’ve gone 10-5 and have maintained the same position albeit with more injuries.

Jamahl Mosley and Udoka would be deserving winners in any other season given what they’ve established in Orlando and Houston.

Unfortunately, we’ve been waiting for the Cavs to fall off and they simply never did.

Atkinson earned it.

It would take extreme circumstances to alter the narrative.

Nikola Jokic, -105 to win Clutch Player of the Year

Unless there is a paradigm shifting change in criteria, this award has become about total production during clutch minutes combined with wins and losses.

That’s how the award has been handed out since it’s inauguration.

As it stands, Jokic is second in total clutch points, first in rebounds, second in assists and leading Denver to a 10-7 record.

His price reflects FanDuel’s expectation that Denver will continue to be in close games with Jokic leading them to victory.

Chalk rating – 6 out of 10

Case against Jokic:

With Denver getting healthy, what if they start ramping into championship form and blow out teams more frequently?

Less clutch minutes, less production for Jokic.

This award is more cumulative than any of the others and the total production by game 82 is what dictates the winner.

The biggest fear you should have if you own a Jokic ticket is if the voting criteria quietly changes.

If so, a player like Darius Garland at +1500 holds a compelling case.

Even though he’s 11th in clutch scoring at the moment, he owns a 65.5 field-goal percentage (best amongst the Top-30), hasn’t missed a free-throw, and has helped Cleveland to a 14-2 record in clutch games.

Should team success suddenly weigh more in the third year of this award, that would take away from Jokic who leads based off of the original voting metrics.

If things remain ceteris paribus, Jokic’s consistency should hold up.