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Setting The Pick – NBA Award lock meter
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One quarter of the regular season remains in the NBA.
Playoff basketball is right around the corner.
Every team has played over 60 games this season and it’s a notable milestone considering the rule changes implemented this year.
The NBA instituted a 65-game minimum to qualify for all NBA awards, excluding Rookie of the Year.
As frontrunners approach that threshold, the odds on FanDuel for each trophy favourite continues to shorten.
Which awards are out of reach?
Who is capable of sneaking in as a longshot?
I’ll go through each award and rate the chalk option on a lock meter from 1 to 10.
Nikola Jokic, Most Valuable Player – 7 out of 10
Three months ago, I pitched Shai Gilgeous-Alexander as a worthy longshot for the Michael Jordan Trophy this season.
He was +900 at the time and has moved up to No. 2 on FanDuel at +250.
The Canadian has done everything in his power to justify his stake as the league’s best player.
He’s helped OKC evolve from a 24-win team two seasons ago to half a game out of first in the Western Conference this year.
He’s second in scoring, first in steals, and improved in essentially every stat category while playing less minutes year-over-year.
In that article above, I tried to be controversial by suggesting Jokic wouldn’t get it done.
Unfortunately, much like the Sun, the NBA revolves around his brilliance.
He is the unstoppable force of the association, a player that everyone schemes to beat, the one that all of his peers cannot help but respect.
There are two ways I see him losing MVP:
Scenario No. 1 – SGA and the Thunder go on a blazing hot run to close the season and finish atop the West with multiple games to spare.
At the moment, there’s a four-team pack chasing the top seed.
OKC needs to fully separate from this group and be the undisputed alpha dogs of the West as Boston is out East.
Scenario No. 2 – Jokic falls victim to injury luck, missing 16 of the remaining 19 games.
That’s not happening.
At this point, between OKC finishing atop the West (+185 on FanDuel) and SGA winning MVP (+250), betting on the Thunder to sneak in as the 1-seed is my pick of the two.
Victor Wembanyama, Rookie of the Year – 9.5 out of 10
This is the one award where the game minimum doesn’t apply.
Without that bailout option, this award is a closed book.
Those supporting Chet Holmgren will scream about his efficiency and impact on winning.
Both arguments are valid when comparing these two rivals.
I just can’t imagine a scenario where Wemby gets snubbed considering his future value for the NBA.
Even though Holmgren is a unicorn as well, the gap in stats will be tough to supersede:
Wembanyama – 20.7 points, 10.3 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 1.3 steals, 3.4 blocks, 47-37-82 shooting splits
Holmgren – 17.2 points, 7.9 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 0.7 steals, 2.5 blocks, 54-39-79 shooting splits
OKC’s big man undeniably shoots with greater efficiency than Wemby, but he has two elite playmakers in SGA and Jalen Williams sharing defensive attention.
In San Antonio, Devin Vassell is Wemby’s most dangerous teammate – a huge gap.
According to NBA.com, Holmgren has been wide open on 27.5 per cent of his shots this season compared to 16.7 for Wembanyama.
When you’re getting roughly 65 per cent more open looks than your rival, it’s easy to cite efficiency.
Bet at your own risk, but this award has already been decided.
Rudy Gobert, Defensive Player of the Year – 9 out of 10
Even though Gobert didn’t open the season as the betting favourite, he’s held the chalk position essentially end to end.
By the first week of November, Minnesota owned the top defensive-rating in the NBA and never looked back.
As of today, they hold a 2.2-point gap over the Celtics who are second on that list: that’s the same delta between the next six teams.
If you look at the track-record of DPOY, it almost always goes to a player who anchors a top-3 defence.
Like Jokic, the only way Gobert loses this award is if he suffers a season-ending injury.
The potential four-time DPOY winner is four games away from hitting the minimum requirement.
Tyrese Maxey, Most Improved Player – 7 out of 10
Similar to Gobert, Maxey wasn’t the preseason betting favourite, but after his first game, he jumped into the lead and never looked back.
With James Harden refusing to play for Philly, Maxey got a major narrative bump for carrying the load left behind by The Beard.
Maxey dropped 31 points on Opening Night and followed that up with 34 points a game later.
Statistically Maxey is having an incredible year and is a deserving candidate.
The challenge with MIP is quantifying the criteria.
For now, let’s do a straight up comparison of his stats versus his closest competitor, Coby White.
Maxey:
2022-23 – 20.3 points, 2.9 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 48-43-85 shooting splits
2023-24 – 26.0 points, 3.7 rebounds, 6.3 assists, 45-38-87 shooting splits
White:
2022-23 – 9.7 points, 2.8 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 44-37-87 shooting splits
2023-24 – 19.7 points, 4.8 rebounds, 5.3 assists, 46-39-84 shooting splits
The Chicago guard has essentially doubled his stats year-over-year and has done it on improved efficiency.
Maxey’s counting stats have improved, but his shooting has tailed off, especially with Joel Embiid out of the lineup.
This longshot bet will have less to do with White and more to do with Maxey.
The first-time All-Star is currently out with a concussion. If he misses significant time, that could open the door.
If the Sixers freefall below Chicago in the standings, who are only 4.5 games behind, White likely has a 50-50 chance of taking this award away.
Stephen Curry, Clutch Player of the Year – 5 out of 10
Knowing exactly how this award is decided remains a mystery.
Like the six other awards, these are all voted on by a panel of 100 media members.
While it’s somewhat formulaic in nature, there isn’t a defined equation that constitute who wins.
The inaugural winner of the Jerry West Trophy was De’Aaron Fox last season, who had a few memorable game-winning daggers for the Sacramento Kings, a team that broke a 16-year playoff drought.
He received 91 first-place votes and was a landslide winner.
Well, did his clutch stats mirror his narrative?
In 39 registered clutch time games, Fox guided the Kings to a 22-17 record.
He led the league with 194 total clutch time points on 52.9 percent shooting from the field, 31.8 from deep and 86.0 percent from the line.
He averaged 1.21 points per minute, the only player amongst the finalists to be above 1.00.
The only questionable note from his stat line was his plus-24 net rating. That didn’t even crack the top-50 last season.
As it stands, Curry is the favourite for this season at -250.
Like Fox, he leads the NBA in total clutch points and has shot 49.5 percent from the field, 46.7 from deep, and 94.6 from the line.
Those percentages are all well above his season and career averages.
There are two flaws to his case which I think might garner attention come voting time:
- Golden State is just 18-16 in clutch games
- Curry has a plus-3 net rating
If there’s anyone I’m eyeing, I’m paying attention to DeMar DeRozan who’s +500 on FanDuel.
At the end of February, DeRozan was 25:1 for this award but has been steamed up to the second choice behind Curry.
Over the past two weeks, he’s registered 39 total clutch points, almost double the next closest player (Malik Monk).
In that period, Curry didn’t score a single clutch point.
DeRozan now sits second in total clutch points with 147.
Curry remains first at 165.
Here are the current arguments for DeRozan:
- Chicago owns a 20-14 record in clutch games
- DeRozan is shooting 50.6 percent from the field and 50.0 percent from deep (both better than Curry)
- He owns a plus-72 net rating, third best in the NBA only behind his teammates White and Nikola Vucevic
It’s not Curry’s fault Golden State is winning games by large margins during their recent hot streak.
But the reality is, there’s some uncontrollable variance with clutch time production.
With 20 games to go, if Chicago finds themselves in more clutch time scenarios with DeRozan maintaining his efficiency, he could easily jump ahead of Curry in total points.
Mark Daigneault, Coach of the Year – 6 out of 10
This award traditionally goes to a candidate whose team overachieved the most against preseason expectations.
Mike Brown won last year as the Kings broke a 16-year playoff drought.
Monty Williams won in 2021-22 with the Suns winning eight more games than the next best team in the league.
This year, OKC has most of the attention from the NBA media.
They’ve sat atop the West on multiple occasions this season.
I mentioned it above in the SGA blurb, they’ve gone from 24 wins to 40 last year, and are now projected for 57.
That type of leap almost always gets rewarded via COY.
A team I believe deserves more attention for their turnaround is the Orlando Magic.
Their preseason win total on FanDuel was 37.5 games.
They’re one win away from cashing the over – the first team to beat their number this season.
They’re fourth in the East and defensive rating, have been decimated by injury all season, and are led by a trio of players aged 22 or younger.
If this award is about rewarding overachievement, head coach Jamahl Mosley deserves way more respect than his price at 45:1.
The Magic have the 10th easiest schedule remaining and have a longshot chance at dethroning Cleveland in the third seed, 3.5 games ahead.
Donovan Mitchell and Evan Mobley are both out. A few more losses from the Cavs and we’ll be asking why Orlando isn’t getting more praise.
Malik Monk, Sixth Man of the Year – 8 out of 10
Going back to the article above, I gave Monk as a solid 6MOY pick at +900.
He’s currently -340 on FanDuel to lock it up.
My arguments back in December remain consistent today, he’s the most important bench player to his team.
The challenge with his case relates to team record.
If you exclude 6MOY staples Lou Williams and Jamal Crawford, almost all other winners played for top-seeded teams.
The previous three winners all helped their teams win the No. 1 seed in their conferences.
While Monk is the most impactful bench player this year, Sacramento is destined to finish in the play-in tournament.
If so, will voters change their tune?
Of the next four choices on FanDuel, all of them play for a team in the top half of the playoff mix.
But not a single player averages more points or assists than Monk.
If you want to throw a dart, Naz Reid at 16:1 could move up the board if he goes above and beyond filling in for Karl-Anthony Towns who went down with a season-ending injury this week.