Setting The Pick – Quarter-Season Review

Now that the NBA has passed the quarter mark of the season, it’s a great intermission to review learnings from the first two months.

This year’s first quarter brought more change than any season in the past (excluding the two pandemic era seasons).

The In-Season Tournament injected some serious life into the early portion of the calendar and produced playoff-intensity level basketball much sooner than fans are accustomed to.

Based on everything we saw; I want to go over some NBA Awards that still have some juice.

For the purpose of this article, I will intentionally overlook the chalk options and make the case for three future picks that sit on the outside looking in.
 

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, +900 to win Most Valuable Player

Here’s my clickbait headline for this article – Nikola Jokic will not win MVP this year.

Since he hoisted the Larry O’Brien Trophy until today, The Joker has been the odds-on favourite to win this award.

He’s currently +200 on FanDuel, not far off his shortest price at +150 earlier this month.

Full disclosure, I don’t disagree with him being the favourite; it’s 100 percent valid.

But I encourage you to look elsewhere because there are too many other capable candidates with legitimate paths to the award at more favourable payouts. Gilgeous-Alexander is somebody who’s price could keep trending up.

SGA was top-5 in MVP voting last year and there were two main knocks on him – the Thunder were below .500, and he lacked the brand name needed to be declared the league’s best player.

After the first quarter of the season, the most casual of fans should be embarrassed if they don’t know his name.

As it stands, OKC is third in the West and own the league’s fifth-best net rating.

SGA is fourth in scoring only behind three other MVP favourites – Joel Embiid, Luka Doncic, and Giannis Antetokounmpo.

I want it in writing here, this is my personal criteria I believe SGA must meet to win MVP:

• SGA has to lead the NBA in scoring
• OKC must finish as a Top-3 seed

It’s a long path to both of those outcomes but looking at their team success, there’s a window coming up this month that could shift the narrative in SGA’s favour.

There are only two Western Conference teams ahead of the Thunder – the Denver Nuggets and the Minnesota Timberwolves.

OKC has three games against those two teams between now and the new year.

Hypothetically speaking, if they pull off the sweep, Oklahoma City could leapfrog into the top spot.

Think of the narrative, ‘sub .500 team from last year skyrockets to the No.1 seed.’

The noise would be undeniable by then and he’d likely find himself permanently on the radar of all NBA award voters.

While you could give the credit to Chet Holmgren for their team’s improved play, SGA has managed to categorically improve while giving up some usage to the rookie.

His scoring is marginally down from last year by 0.4 points, otherwise the arrow is up everywhere else:

Field-goal percentage – 51.0 to 54.6
Rebounds – 4.8 to 5.5

Assists – 5.5 to 6.4

Steals – 1.6 to 2.7

Turnovers – 2.8 to 2.0

He’s not getting enough attention for his improved efficiency and growth on the defensive end and I firmly believe it’s due to brand name.

If the Thunder win these three critical December games, get ready to hear his name everywhere.
 

Tyrese Haliburton, +750 to win Most Improved Player

When this award gets handed out in the Spring, it could be a head-to-head battle between two Tyreses and the parallels don’t stop there.

Tyrese Maxey and Haliburton are both having banner years, but their similarities go well beyond their name.

They were both drafted in 2020, both 23-years-old, both upped their scoring from 20 points per game to 26, and both playing on another tier versus last season.

Here’s how their stats compare year-over-year:

Maxey 2022-23 averages – 20.3 pts, 2.9 reb, 3.5 ast, 2.7 threes, 48.1 field-goal percentage

Maxey 2023-24 averages – 26.1 pts, 4.1 reb, 6.8 ast, 3.2 threes, 46.0 field-goal percentage

Haliburton 2022-23 averages – 20.7 pts, 3.7 reb, 10.4 ast, 2.9 threes, 49.0 field-goal percentage

Haliburton 2023-24 averages – 26.1 pts, 4.3 reb, 12.0 ast, 3.8 threes, 52.0 field-goal percentage

Quantitatively, their stats show a similar degree of improvement.

Where they differ up to this point is their respective narratives.

Maxey opened the season in a chaotic holdout situation with James Harden as the Sixers looked to sort out their roster.

Over the first week, Maxey had three consecutive games above 25 points and earned plenty of recognition for being the solution to Philly’s problem.

Once Harden was shipped off in November, Maxey’s momentum only strengthened.

His MIP odds on FanDuel have been at even money or better since mid-November.

But as we’re at the quarter-mark of the season, we can overlook the month-to-month narratives and evaluate their impact on a more macro-level.

Their statistical improvements are similar, why aren’t their odds?

If I had to construct a hypothesis, I think Haliburton is being penalized for his past success.

The Wisconsin-native was third in MIP pricing only behind SGA and Lauri Markkanen right up until his injury last January.

Playing in his first full season after being traded from Sacramento, he made a quantum leap last year.

If he took such a big jump last season, there’s no way he can do it back-to-back right?

While theoretically that seems unheard of, his stats suggest it has been achieved.

Two seasons ago, he was shooting 47.3 percent from the field and averaging 15.3 points and 8.2 assists.

His current numbers have him in a completely different tier.

Indiana has achieved enough recognition for making the NBA Cup Finals and executing a historically good offence this season.

The main knock on Haliburton’s MIP case is his past success. Just like Gilgeous-Alexander, last season’s runner-up, going from great to exceptional, Hali being in the MVP mix shouldn’t discount him from this award.
 

Malik Monk, +900 to win Sixth Man of the Year

I acknowledge Austin Reaves’s case to be the front-runner for this award – his skill set and impact for a winning team will be hard to overcome in April.

My argument for Monk has more to do with the current price – he deserves more credit than the three players ahead of him on FanDuel.

Immanuel Quickley sits at +750 but has a lot of flaws to his case. An argument can be made that he’s not even the most impactful player off of New York’s bench this season.

Cole Anthony at +650 has earned his price based on his production in the first quarter of the season, but with several Orlando players ready to return from injury, I don’t envision him sustaining his stats for 82 games.

Tim Hardaway Jr. has a valid case at +280. He gets credit for accepting a bench role after starting last season and increasing his scoring by 2.9 points as a sixth man. I do think his one-dimensional role as a three-point shooter alongside Doncic and Kyrie Irving makes him vulnerable.

If you look at how the Kings have performed this season, you can argue that Monk has been their third-best player.

De’Aaron Fox is their unequivocable leader while Domantas Sabonis continues to be one of the league’s most versatile bigs.

Everyone else on the roster has kind of been a letdown.

Father time seems to be catching up to Harrison Barnes with his scoring down by just under four points per game.

Kevin Huerter has regressed experiencing a similar four-point drop-off and losing minutes to undrafted player, Keon Ellis.

Sophomore wing, Keegan Murray, was supposed to take a big step forward this season but has only increased his scoring from 12.2 to 13.8 ppg.

Though Monk plays just 25.1 mpg, he’s second behind Fox in usage rate and third on the team in assists. He’s also shooting a team-best 43.4 percent from deep.

Monk’s path to this award will require Sacramento to improve on their already solid 14-9 record.

He’ll also need the Lakers and Mavericks to regress in order for him to have a fighting chance.

It might ultimately come down to which of these teams finishes with the best record.