I’d bet any amount of money the Chicago Bulls never envisioned how critical this Monday night matchup would be.

Coming off three straight losses and going 2-8 over their past 10, the Bulls are suddenly just 1.5 games away from falling back into the play-in tournament.

While the Raptors are certainly punching above their weight class, there’s no denying how well-deserved their recent wins have been.

If it wasn’t for an overtime loss against the Lakers, Toronto would be riding a seven-game win streak. All those victories came against opponents vying for a play-in berth or better. 

Judging by their momentum and recent form, here are some of my best bets ahead of tonight.

 

Raptors +4

I think there’s a very good chance this ends up being a one-possession game.

Take the points.

These two teams are trending in opposite directions so drastically, it’s hard to expect things to reverse without any catalyst.

Patrick Williams returns for his first game since a 65-game layoff.

Gary Trent Jr. misses his first game since January.

Is that enough?

The Bulls haven’t played since Friday, while the Raptors are flying from Philadelphia to Chicago on the second night of a back-to-back.

But guess what? Toronto is 10-5-0 this season ATS with no rest. They’re 9-6-0 ATS when at a rest disadvantage.

Since the All-Star break, Toronto has a 0.2 net rating over 14 games while Chicago is -7.2 over 11.

The better team is getting points and their floor general, Fred VanVleet, is back.

Don’t overthink it.

 

Total under 220.5

Over Chicago’s past 11 games, they’ve gone under the total nine times.

Over Toronto’s past 11, they’ve gone under eight times.

Interestingly, they’re both failing to hit the number for similar reasons: three-point shooting.

Prior to the All-Star break, Chicago ranked last in three-point attempts and that hasn’t changed this month. But they’ve gone from shooting one fewer three per game behind the worst team to 4.3 fewer since the break.

They’ve only averaged 8.8 threes made per game while the league average has been 12.6.

Three-point volume has dropped off for Toronto. Here are the Raptors’ splits:

Pre-All-Star three-point stats: 34.8 three-point attempts, 35.4 per cent

Post-All-Star three-point stats: 30.6 three-point attempts, 33.4 per cent

While DeMar DeRozan’s shooting efficiency has come back down to earth, the supporting cast hasn’t been helping.

Nikola Vucevic is shooting 20.5 per cent from three post-ASW. Alex Caruso returned four games ago, but his impact is on the defensive end. He’s shooting 37 per cent from the field.

While Toronto’s been winning games, it’s their defence that’s made the leap into the top-10. The Raptors’ offensive rating post-ASW sits at 22nd in the league.

 

Pascal Siakam over 23.5 points

Siakam deserves a lot of the credit for Toronto’s recent success. Fans who’ve watched him since the G-league days know, this is easily the best version of him we’ve ever seen.

His shooting splits over the last seven games are 51-48-78.  He’s averaged 25.6 points per game during this period and covered the number in five of seven games.

Defensively for Chicago, they don’t have a single player who matches up well with him. Williams would be their best stopper, but it’s his first game in five months.

The Bulls rank as the 10th worst defence in the association and with Trent Jr. out in addition to OG Anunoby, the usage should continue to fall onto Siakam’s lap.

Add in the fact that Siakam is averaging 6.9 free-throw attempts in March (the most all year), the environment is conducive for him to lead Toronto’s offence.