Setting The Pick – Western Conference Gauntlet

We’re in the doldrums of silly season right now where half the games are barely watchable.

This current period is the reason why discussions about shortening the NBA regular season exist.

For the purpose of this article, we won’t be brainstorming revisions for the NBA.

Instead, I’m here to direct your attention to two Western Conference races that are still in progress with 10 or so games to go.

The upcoming playoffs out West are going to be a dogfight from the play-in tournament onwards.

No team will be an automatic out.

Beyond the top spot, there are still multiple fights for seeding across the board and FanDuel conveniently has markets for us to capitalize on them. 

OKC’s first, who’s second?

It’s been a rotating carousel for the 2-seed out West all season.

Given that it’s still up for grabs, FanDuel has built a special market for it.

Houston Rockets (48-26) -150

Houston’s season has been a roller coaster ride but currently find themselves two games clear of third with eight games to go.

This is theirs to lose.

They’ve won 11 of their last 12 games as many of their core players returned from injury.

But just like all roller coasters, at some point, a drop is coming.

Outside of the Utah Jazz, all seven of their remaining opponents are Western Conference contending teams.

OKC is the only team at risk of resting their players with the top seed clinched.

Here are their other six opponents:

Mar 30 at Phoenix Suns

Mar 31 at Los Angeles Lakers

Apr 4 at Golden State Warriors

Apr 9 at LA Clippers

Apr 11 at Los Angeles Lakers

Apr 13 vs. Denver Nuggets

If we’re being generous and giving Houston an automatic nod over Phoenix, that leaves them with six games where they might be listed as underdogs.

With only a two-game lead, I’m not convinced they’re a minus-money bet.

The kicker? Their final game comes against Denver who are right at their heels.

The winner of that game earns the tiebreaker should those two finish with the same record.

Denver Nuggets (46-28) +175

Denver also has eight games left and definitely has what it takes to make a run.

With Nikola Jokic returning from a five-game absence, that could be all they need to chase down the Rockets.

The reigning MVP returned at full strength, dropping a 39-10-10 triple-double in their win against Milwaukee.

As they look to build momentum into the playoffs, I don’t expect them to rest these next two weeks.

The Nuggets only have two games where they project to be heavy favourites (Utah and San Antonio).

Just like the Rockets, they have meaningful games in April.

Apr 1 vs. Minnesota Timberwolves

Apr 4 at Golden State Warriors

Apr 6 vs. Indiana Pacers

Apr 9 at Sacramento Kings

Apr 11 vs. Memphis Grizzlies

Apr 13 at Houston Rockets

As you can see above, every opponent has something on the line.

If we’re being generous with Houston against Phoenix, Denver deserves the same grace versus Sacramento.

Their strength of schedule is comparable, but it’ll come down to that final game of the season.

If that’s the dealbreaker, I’d take Denver over Houston in a one-off game.

They have the second shortest odds to win the West for a reason (+600).

Can Clippers claw back?

Prior to LeBron James’ injury this month, the Clippers got as long as +10000 to win the Pacific Division.

Then, the King strained his groin in Boston, they proceed to lose four straight and suddenly Kawhi Leonard and company find themselves back in the fold.

Sitting 2.5 games back, the Clippers have shortened to +470 to win the division, a 17.5 percent implied probability.

They got here by winning six of their last seven with their only loss being a two-point defeat at the hands of OKC.

Leonard might’ve missed most of the season but looks to be peaking just in time for playoff basketball.

His shooting splits over this stretch (58/52/87) should have the Western Conference concerned.

James Harden has also been heating up, making 3.7 threes a night on 44.1 percent shooting.

They are fully healthy and have owned the second-best net rating over this span.

Unfortunately for the purpose of this bet, the Lakers own the tiebreaker.

The Clippers would need a few good bounces to finish with one more win than the Lakers.

But what they have going in their favour is strength of schedule.

Brooklyn, Orlando, New Orleans and San Antonio are still on the schedule.

Three games against Dallas and Sacramento could be competitive but still project as wins.

Cleveland, Houston and Golden State are the three most likely losses.

A 7-3 finish would require the Lakers to wrap 3-5 for this bet to cash.

On the LeBron side of this, they have two wins essentially locked up against New Orleans and Portland.

The rest of their schedule isn’t as comfortable.

They have four more games against the top two Western seeds, one against divisional rival Golden State, and Luka Doncic’s return game in Dallas.

I’m not suggesting that’s six losses above, but every one of those games will be hard fought.

It’s a testy final stretch for the Lakers, a team that’s still building chemistry with all their new parts.

Between taking the Lakers at -300 or Clippers at +470, I’d much rather take a swing at the Clippers.

I think with Leonard having played just 29 games, they’re being slept on.

They have two hall of famers, a deserving 6MOY player in Norman Powell, a Top-3 defence and one of the smartest tacticians in Tyronn Lue.