Powered by:
Setting The Pick – Win total risers and fallers
Published
This is the time of year when team’s start deciding if it’s their year or not.
Every NBA team has played at least 20 games and has a good sense of their direction.
Some teams have overachieved and might take a swing for a deep playoff push while others have fallen too far down and might need to accept their fate.
Let’s use FanDuel’s win totals to evaluate the biggest over and underachievers thus far and assess whether there’s opportunity to pick a side.
Cleveland Cavaliers, 1st in the East (20-3, 87.0 win%)
Preseason Win Total - 48.5
Current Win Total - 59.5
The Cavs are unquestionably the biggest overachievers this season.
Win total deltas aren’t needed to qualify that.
As current owners of the best record in the NBA, they’ve earned this spot with impressive wins over Boston, New York, Golden State and Denver – all Top-10 choices to win the title.
With so many teams making offseason acquisitions, continuity has been a major part of Cleveland’s success this year.
The only major change they made was Kenny Atkinson, the runaway favourite for Coach of the Year on FanDuel (-120).
Over the past three seasons, the Cavs have been known as a stout defensive team consistently finishing with a top defensive rating.
What Atkinson’s brought to them this year is a newfound energy on the offensive end.
They currently own the third-best offensive rating after finishing 16th last season.
Take a look at some of the key metrics they’ve improved on:
| Metric | 2023 ranking | 2024 ranking |
|---|---|---|
| Effective field-goal percentage | 13th | 1st |
| Pace | 24th | 6th |
| Turnovers | 19th | 7th |
| Points off turnovers | 12th | 2nd |
They’re taking care of the ball better and punishing teams off of turnovers.
Circling back to their win total, they’d need to win 40 of their next 59 games to hit the over.
That doesn’t feel like a stretch since they’re on pace for a 71-win season.
In the immediate future, they continue to have a soft schedule with games against Charlotte, Miami, Washington, Brooklyn before a back-to-back against underachieving Milwaukee and Philadelphia.
The toughest remaining game this month will be on the road in Denver on the 30th; that’s seven games away.
It’s not unreasonable to envision them being on a 10-game win streak going into that one.
The Pick: Cleveland over 59.5 wins
Los Angeles Clippers, 6th in the West (14-10)
Preseason Win Total – 35.5
Current Win Total - 44.5
I bet you’re as shocked as I am to see the LA Clippers second on this list.
Their success has been very quietly covered by the media and their leap on FanDuel can be credited to how low the bar was to begin with.
After losing Paul George to free agency, no team entered the year with a lower win total drop other than the Brooklyn Nets (37.5 to 19.5).
Considering that Kawhi Leonard has yet to play a game, the Clippers currently sitting in the sixth-seed might be the season’s biggest shock.
Their preseason win total projected them to finish 13th in the West.
Who’s responsible for this performance?
Two players on LA deserve praise for stepping up this season.
Norman Powell is LA’s top candidate to win Most Improved Player.
FanDuel has him listed as the seventh choice to win the award (+3000) and quite frankly that feels like value with Leonard’s health status still up in the air.
Powell has posted career-highs in almost every stat category:
| Stat | Total | Previous Career High |
|---|---|---|
| Points Per Game | 23.9 | 19.0 |
| Field Goal Percentage | 50.5 | 49.5 |
| Three-Point Percentage | 50.7 | 43.5 |
| Assists Per Game | 2.4 | 2.1 |
Getting a chance to start for LA after doing so just 13 times over his past 141 games, he’s capitalizing on the opportunity which is leading to wins for the Clippers.
Ivica Zubac is the other players who has taken a leap and provided stability during an uncertain season.
After never averaging more than 29 mpg in his nine-year career, Zubac is averaging 32.3 minutes this season and putting up career-high numbers like his teammate Powell.
His averages in points, rebounds, assists all dwarf his previous bests and he’s been an anchor for this defence that ranks sixth in the NBA.
While LA still struggles offensively, head coach Tyronn Lue has them playing on string defensively.
Even with two of the best two-way wings in the game over the past four seasons, the Clippers never ranked as high as this team’s defence.
If Leonard gives them 30 games, a play-in berth is reasonable to expect.
The Pick: LA Clippers over 44.5 wins
New Orleans Pelicans, 15th in the West (5-18)
Preseason Win Total - 45.5
Current Win Total – 30.5
While I spotlighted the two biggest overachievers for this article, I want to solely focus on the most underachieving team – the New Orleans Pelicans.
Their projection has dropped 15 wins on FanDuel since October which is justified.
No one in their right mind would have predicted eight of their core rotation players to miss a combined 108 out of a possible 184 games.
As it stands, the Pelicans are the second-worst team in the entire NBA.
But brighter days are ahead.
In their most recent game, they eked out a 126-124 victory over the Phoenix Suns with most of their main players back in the fold.
Zion Williamson is the lone starter still inactive.
At their current pace, they’re only projected for 18 wins.
To hit the over on FanDuel, they need to go 26-33 the rest of the way.
This is possibly one of the best buy-lows out there.
It’s hard to ignore their 1-15 drought before Thursday’s win but that’s what happens when you’re forced to play a starting point guard right off the streets in Elfrid Payton.
Now that the roster is near full strength, you have to ignore everything that’s happened prior.
If they were projected for 46.5 wins heading into the season (56.7 win pct%), why are they so far off in their rest of season projections with Williamson the only remaining inactive player?
This was a 49-win team last season that swapped out Larry Nance Jr. and Dyson Daniels for Dejounte Murray (a former All-Star).
While the departure of Jonas Valanciunas has left them forced to rely on rookie centre, Yves Missi, they are loaded on the perimeter and forced to make tough lineup decisions every game.
Trey Murphy III came off the bench on Thursday but would be a starter on the majority of NBA teams.
The question for New Orleans comes down to cohesion – do they have enough time to build up chemistry and claw back into a play-in spot.
Whether they win enough games to get there is one conversation, but they most certainly aren’t a team intentionally looking to tank.
Their team salary sits at $179 million, ranking 11th in the league.
CJ McCollum is the lone rotation player over the age of 30; all their core pieces are in or ramping up to their prime.
This team is motivated to compete and has the talent to do so.
They’re more than capable of being a .500 squad.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
The Pick: New Orleans over 30.5 wins