Mar 8, 2021
Simmons vs. The Spread: NCAA conference tournaments primer
With March Madness around the corner, conferences begin tournament play on Tuesday and while some basketball teams are just playing for seeding, other teams view these games to mean everything. As a result, there are a few sleeper picks to keep your eye on as you consider the favourites.
It’s that time of year again – when every game in NCAA college basketball matters with March Madness right around the corner.
With the regular season wrapping up in the major conferences on Sunday, the conference tournaments begin on Tuesday. For some teams, playing tournament games are just for seeding purposes. But for others, these games mean everything and some college careers will sadly come to an end this week.
ACC Preview
This is not your typical ACC season as it’s been a down year for perennial powerhouses North Carolina and Duke, which is likely on the wrong side of the bubble after losing to the Tar Heels on Saturday.
Florida State, for my money, is the best team heading into this tournament despite being the No. 2 seed. While they did not show up Saturday against Notre Dame, they have been the best team from start to finish in the conference. Keep an eye on Ryerson Rams transfer Tanor Ngom coming off the bench for the Seminoles. The 7-foot-2 centre provides a lot of size and is the rare USPORTS to NCAA transfer.
Virginia is the No. 1 seed and the Cavaliers are also a pesky team with their tough defensive style and lack of offensive firepower.
There is some value here on Georgia Tech as the Yellow Jackets are on a six-game win streak heading into the tournament.
The Favourite: Virginia +255
My Pick To Win: Florida State +275
Sleeper Pick: Georgia Tech +2500
Big 10 Preview
In recent years, we have seen a trend develop with schools hiring high-profile alumni as head coaches. Whether it was Chris Mullin at St John’s or Patrick Ewing at Georgetown, this strategy has not had great success.
However, that is not the case at Michigan as Juwan Howard has done a terrific job so far with the Wolverines, who are the No. 1 seed in this tournament and for good reason. The combination of star freshman Hunter Dickinson and senior Isaiah Livers have led this team to a 19-2 record and they can lock up a No. 1 seed in the big tournament with a win here.
This conference, however, is no cakewalk. Ohio State played Michigan down to the wire, and the Iowa Hawkeyes are led by likely player of the year Luka Garza, who can score at will.
Illinois is also a team to watch as the Fighting Illini beat the Wolverines by 23 points last week and that was without Ayo Donsunmu who returned from injury on Saturday.
The Favourite: Michigan +150
My Pick To Win: Michigan +150
Sleeper Pick: Illinois +350
Big 12 Preview
Baylor is simply one of the best teams in the country, if not the best. The Bears have been a dominant force all season long and are the best three-point shooting team in the United States. The one loss they suffered is even more impressive considering the strength of this conference.
Kansas has played well down the stretch, including the Jayhawks’ win over Baylor this season. The West Virginia Mountaineers also took Baylor to the wire in a thriller last week.
Oklahoma State is a team to keep an eye on, value wise, as well. Cade Cunningham is the projected first pick in the 2021 NBA Draft, but he missed the season finale with an ankle sprain. If Cunningham is a go, nobody wants to play the Cowboys because when he’s on his game, this team can beat anybody.
The Favourite: Baylor +120
My Pick To Win: Baylor +120
Sleeper Pick: Oklahoma State +400
Big East Preview
The last week in the season was an interesting one in the Big East to say the least. Villanova was the best team all season, but the Wildcats were dealt a devastating blow when star forward Collin Gillespie tore his ACL against the Creighton Bluejays last Wednesday.
The new betting favourite after Gillespie’s injury became Creighton, which is currently without head coach Greg McDermott who’s on administrative leave for delivering a racially insensitive postgame speech to his team.
This opens the door for the UConn Huskies, who are a different team when star James Bouknight is healthy as he is the best player in the conference. Since his return from injury in mid-February the Huskies are 5-1, with the lone loss coming to a fully healthy Villanova team.
The Huskies are solid bet to win the Big East. If you want to take a flier, the St John’s Red Storm might get all-conference player Posh Alexander back from injury.
The Favourite: Creighton +200
My Pick To Win: UConn +235
Sleeper Pick: St John’s +2000
Pac-12 Preview
The Pac-12 has been the weakest of the major conferences this season, so it’s a wide-open tournament.
USC looked like it was the best team heading into March, but has lost three of its last four games. The Trojans do possess the best NBA prospect in the conference in Evan Mobley, who will likely be a top-5 pick in the upcoming draft.
However, Colorado beat the Trojans by double digits in their last meeting. Although Mobley is the best NBA prospect, the Buffaloes have the best college player in the conference in Mckinley Wright and have as good a chance as anyone in this tournament.
The best play here, in my opinion, are the Oregon Ducks. Led by the Canadian duo of Chris Duarte and Eugene Omoruyi, the Ducks have shown they can beat anyone. Duarte is a streaky shooter but if he is on, watch out.
The Favourite: USC +185
My Pick To Win: Oregon +300
Sleeper Pick: Colorado +275
SEC Preview
Alabama finished the Southeastern Conference season strong with a nice comeback win over Georgia. The Crimson Tide rely heavily on shooting the three ball as they have the second-most three-point attempts in all of college basketball.
Coach Nate Oats believes in threes and layups/dunks and nothing else and it has worked for them this season. Keep an eye on Toronto-born Joshua Primo who, like a lot of players on this team, can light it up from beyond the arc.
But Alabama can be beaten as Arkansas showed them a few weeks back. Coach Eric Musselman brought the ‘Muss Bus’ to Fayeteville and while he’s generally known for recruiting transfers, he was able to keep the best local recruit at home in freshman Moses Moody who is the Razorbacks best player.
I like the Razorbacks here as they have the easier side of the bracket. Kentucky, however, has had an unheard of down year and will need to win this tournament to qualify for March Madness. The Wildcats have improved as of late and might be worth a flier here as they will be desperate and have NBA-calibre talent on their roster.
The Favourite: Alabama +225
My Pick To Win: Arkansas +300
Sleeper Pick: Kentucky +1600