Sluggish Oilers plagued by three problem areas
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What’s wrong with the Edmonton Oilers?
It wasn’t 12 months ago that we were asking the same question, culminating in the team waiving its starting goaltender and firing then-head coach Jay Woodcroft. Whether by chance or design, the Oilers subsequently went on an absolute heater, marching all the way to the Stanley Cup Final.
But here we are again amidst another sluggish start. And in a Pacific Division that should offer little resistance to a team as talented as the Oilers (save for those Vegas Golden Knights), Edmonton is again running the treadmill of mediocrity. This 9-7-2 (and -7 goal differential) start is better than the hole they dug themselves last fall, but it’s still quite underwhelming for a Stanley Cup favourite.
So, where can the Oilers improve in the months ahead? Three core issues stand out to me.
The penalty kill
Anyone who has watched an Oilers game this season knows that the moment they take a penalty, an opposition goal is almost certain to follow. The Oilers have given up 16 goals against and counting, with zero shorthanded scoring relief to offset it.
What’s remarkable about the Oilers penalty kill is the underlying numbers are quite good. If you look at expected goal rates in the first 18 games of the season, Edmonton is the league’s best – Evolving Hockey’s expected goal model should have them conceding about 6.3 goals per 60 minutes. Put strong goaltending behind defensive structure capable of limiting chances against like that, and you should have the makings of a great penalty kill.
Off just defensive metrics alone, Edmonton should have a plus penalty kill. But expected goals are blind to goaltending. Once you bring goaltending into the equation, Edmonton’s best-in-class expected goal rates turn into worst-in-class real goals conceded.
That’s what happens when Stuart Skinner and Calvin Pickard combine to stop a staggeringly low 71 per cent of shots faced, and it makes their penalty kill arguably the biggest outlier unit you can find in the league:
Their even-strength goaltending, while nothing to write home about, is markedly better than this. Skinner and Pickard are stopping 90.3 per cent of shots there, right near the league average. That gives you hope the penalty kill is due for some natural positive regression. But make no mistake, this has already cost Edmonton multiple games in the standings.
The 5-on-5 offence
In the Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl era, high-calibre offensive production has been a persistent theme in Edmonton, even when the team’s slumped defensively. In years past, it was the team’s ability to erase mistakes through offensive production that differentiated the Oilers from other contenders.
While the team has made inroads over time defensively, there’s a bit of a concerning trend with how this team is firing right now offensively. Consider how their offensive production at 5-on-5 has trended in recent years – I’ve isolated it to the past six seasons, where scoring has proportionally risen across the league:
I would be remiss to not point out that we have seen a similar drop in power-play scoring, again towards the middle of the pack. I’m willing to be a bit more patient with this power-play group though — this has been an utterly deadly unit in years prior, it’s only 80 minutes of ice time, and some of these minutes were without McDavid as he recovered from an ankle injury.
Performance of depth veterans
It is reasonable to exclude winger Viktor Arvidsson from this group, in large part because his line is still winning despite his own quiet offensive production. And if you want to reasonably grade 39-year-old Corey Perry on a curve, that’s fair.
But Jeff Skinner, Ryan-Nugent-Hopkins, Derek Ryan, Mattias Janmark, and Adam Henrique have left an awful lot to be desired. These five forwards have combined for just seven goals on the season. Or said differently, the same amount as Ottawa’s Adam Gaudette or San Jose’s Fabian Zetterlund. I think that covers it.
The good news for the Oilers? There is still ample time to get things back under control. But six weeks in, this is not the team we expected.
Data via Natural Stat Trick, NHL.com, Evolving Hockey