Phillips and Mitchell make their predictions for the 2021 MLB season

TORONTO — It has amazingly been two full years since we’ve been able to enjoy the excitement of a traditional opening day and all the prognostications that come along with it.

Whether it’s a 60-game sprint or a 162-game grind, one thing has not changed since a unique 2020 season came to an end: The Los Angeles Dodgers are still the favourites and they’re well-positioned to make a run at becoming the first back-to-back World Series winners in more than two decades.

It’s entirely up for debate who the next-best team is, but we get six months of baseball to figure that out this year.

For the Toronto Blue Jays, they won’t have the benefit of the expanded postseason this year, but they’re an improved team with a chance to still be playing baseball in October, no matter the format.

As we’ve done in the past, myself and TSN Baseball Insider Steve Phillips will tackle some key questions when it comes to what needs to happen for the Blue Jays this summer, and take a shot at predicting the next seven-and-a-half months, all the way up to award season in November.

Here we go.

Will George Springer live up to expectations in his first season with the Jays?

MITCHELL: A nagging core injury in March that turned into a Grade 2 left oblique strain might slow Springer at the start, but one of the reasons the Jays handed him $150 million was the consistency he’s shown over the course of his first seven big-league seasons. That won’t change in 2021. As long as he’s healthy for the majority of the season, the typical Springer numbers will be there, and he’ll give the Jays a solid 4-5 WAR season batting out of the leadoff spot most nights in his age-31 year.

PHILLIPS: Many players struggle in their first seasons after signing mega-deals as free agents. They try too hard to live up to the contract. The harder they try, the more they struggle. They need to find a way to maintain intensity without being tense. I don't think this rather common phenomenon will overcome Springer. He is a player who has shown that he is at his best when the lights shine the brightest. His postseason pedigree is well-documented. He has 19 homers and 38 RBI in just 63 postseason games. His .895 OPS in the playoffs is better than his career .852 OPS. I think he will be exactly what the Jays hoped they were getting when they signed him. 

Which homegrown young Blue Jays player makes the biggest jump this season?

MITCHELL: There are lots of options to pick from here and lots of jumps to be made considering none of the kids has even played a full season. It would be easy to pick Bo Bichette and/or Vladimir Guerrero Jr. here and I think both will threaten the .300 mark batting average-wise, which is very tough to do in today’s game. The last time we saw a full 162 games in 2019, only 19 qualified players batted .300. But, for me, the guy who makes the biggest jump is Lourdes Gurriel Jr. in the magical age-27 season. Health issues have held him back, but there’s a monster season coming and a .285 average, 30-plus bombs and a ton of RBI opportunities await hitting in the middle of a potent lineup.

PHILLIPS: Cavan Biggio, Vladimir Guerrero Jr, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Bo Bichette will all show improvement and produce in major ways, but they won't make the biggest jump. This season will be the coming-out party for Alejandro Kirk. I know Danny Jansen is still the starting catcher, but I believe that by the end of the season Kirk will be so good offensively that the percentage of playing time will shift and he will become the more regular starter and Jansen will become the backup. He just needs the opportunity and the at-bats. The more comfortable he gets the more he will become the two-way backstop the Jays need.

Will the Blue Jays’ front office swing a trade for a top-of-the-rotation starter by the trade deadline?

MITCHELL: Defining “ace” or “top-of-the-rotation” guy is sometimes subjective, but yes, GM Ross Atkins will make a big splash, simply because he has to. Where the Blue Jays sit in the standings come July will have a lot to do with the type of pitcher they’re after, but there may be an opportunity to add a starter who could impact the club in 2022, as well, rather than just a rental. Five names to watch: German Marquez, Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray, Kyle Hendricks and Zack Wheeler. Another outside-the-box name to consider is a bullpen ace: Milwaukee Brewers lefty Josh Hader. 

PHILLIPS: In order to make a big deal at the deadline for an ace starting pitcher a club needs both of the currencies in the game: talent (prospects) and money. The Jays have both. I believe the Jays will be in the playoff hunt at the trade deadline. The AL East and wild-card spots may not be determined by the players; it may be determined by the general managers. The race will be close between the Yankees, Jays and Rays. The clubs that improve the most at the deadline will be the ones that make the playoffs.  

What needs to happen for the Jays to make the postseason with the format back to five teams in 2021?

MITCHELL: The offence has to score a boatload of runs, just as it’s expected to do, and averaging five-plus runs per game will have to happen in order to overcome the lack of starting pitching. The Jays sat seventh in baseball at 5.03 runs per clip last year, so that’s doable. The pitching will be a big question in the first half of the season and the Jays will need a couple of pleasant surprises in the rotation from their many reclamation projects, while the bullpen will have to be really good from start to finish. There are talented unproven arms back there in Jordan Romano, Ryan Borucki, Tim Mayza and potentially Nate Pearson in a creative role, but they’re just that — unproven. It’s all about pitching in the first half, and then what the front office does to supplement it from July onward.

PHILLIPS: In order for the Blue Jays to make the postseason, they are going to need their bullpen, offence and defence to support and at times carry the starting rotation. The Jays, as currently constituted, do not have the impact in the starting rotation to win the World Series. They can make the playoffs if a number of things happen: The offence has to consistently hit on all cylinders. The young stars and George Springer need to produce. Nate Pearson has to recover from his groin strain and pitch like a solid No. 2 starter. In addition, they are going to need at least two pitchers to emerge as solid predictable consistent starters from the group of Robbie Ray, Tanner Roark, Steven Matz and T.J. Zeuch. Toronto will need stability in the ninth inning as well. They need to win the games in which they have a lead, particularly early. Late-inning losses can have a detrimental effect on the psyche of a young team. Defence is not necessarily a strength of this team and that is alright; it just can't be a huge shortcoming.  

What will the Blue Jays’ 2021 record be, and will it be enough to make the postseason?

MITCHELL: They’re a year away from being a true World Series threat, falling just short of the postseason — maybe in agonizing fashion — at 86-76. On the bright side for fans, that convinces ownership to allow the front office to go all-in next winter, leading to even higher expectations for 2022.

PHILLIPS: The Jays will finish 89-73, second in the AL East behind the New York Yankees. The Jays will win the second wild card, just barely beating out the Oakland A's.

PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS

AL EAST: New York Yankees (Mitchell); New York Yankees (Phillips)
AL CENTRAL: Chicago White Sox (Mitchell); Minnesota Twins (Phillips)
AL WEST: Los Angeles Angels (Mitchell); Houston Astros (Phillips)
FIRST WILD-CARD: Minnesota Twins (Mitchell); Chicago White Sox (Phillips)
SECOND WILD-CARD: Tampa Bay Rays (Mitchell); Toronto Blue Jays (Phillips)
 
NL EAST: New York Mets (Mitchell); Atlanta Braves (Phillips)
NL CENTRAL: St. Louis Cardinals (Mitchell); St. Louis Cardinals (Phillips)
NL WEST: Los Angeles Dodgers (Mitchell); Los Angeles Dodgers (Phillips)
FIRST WILD-CARD: Atlanta Braves (Mitchell); San Diego Padres (Phillips)
SECOND WILD-CARD: San Diego Padres (Mitchell); New York Mets (Phillips)
 
AL CHAMPION: New York Yankees (Mitchell); Chicago White Sox (Phillips)
NL CHAMPION: New York Mets (Mitchell); Los Angeles Dodgers (Phillips)
WORLD SERIES CHAMPION: New York Mets (Mitchell); Los Angeles Dodgers (Phillips)

AWARDS PREDICTIONS

MANAGER OF THE YEAR: Joe Maddon, Angels and Luis Rojas, Mets (Mitchell); Tony La Russa, White Sox and Luis Rojas, Mets (Phillips)
ROOKIE OF THE YEAR: OF Randy Arozarena, Rays and INF Ha-seong Kim, Padres (Mitchell); OF Jarred Kelenic, Mariners and 3B Ke’Bryan Hayes, Pirates (Phillips)
CY YOUNG AWARD: Tyler Glasnow, Rays and Jacob deGrom, Mets (Mitchell); Gerrit Cole, Yankees and Jacob deGrom, Mets (Phillips)
MVP: OF Mike Trout, Angels and SS Francisco Lindor, Mets (Mitchell); OF Mike Trout, Angels and OF Mookie Betts, Dodgers (Phillips)