Baseball wins with Ohtani, Judge having seasons for the ages

This baseball season has had so many great storylines. As is always the case, there are positive and negative ones.

On the negative side, the World Series champion Texas Rangers have struggled, as have other teams with big expectations like the Toronto Blue Jays, Seattle Mariners and Atlanta Braves.

We also have a chance to witness history this year as the Chicago White Sox are 31-104 and on pace to finish 38-124, which would replace the 1962 New York Mets (40-120) as the worst record ever.

The AL Central has been a positive surprise, with great seasons from the Minnesota Twins, Kansas City Royals and Cleveland Guardians. The Royals were 56-106 last season, and are already 75-60 this year. The Baltimore Orioles and New York Yankees are heavyweights battling atop the AL East. The Philadelphia Phillies have led the NL East most of the year and seem determined to avenge last year’s collapse at the hands of the Arizona Diamondbacks in the NLCS. First-year managers in Cleveland (Steven Vogt), San Diego (Mike Shildt), Milwaukee (Pat Murphy), and Houston (Joe Espada) all have their teams in playoff positions.

Two of the best stories this year are the performances of the leading candidates for MVP: Shohei Ohtani of the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL and Aaron Judge of the Yankees in the AL.

Ohtani is on pace for the first 50-homer and 50-stolen-base season in baseball history, while Judge is on pace to surpass his record-setting 2022 season in which he hit 62 home runs.

It raises the question: Which should be considered the better season?

Obviously, both players are having phenomenal years. There has never been a player who managed a 50/50 season. Barry Bonds, Mark McGuire, and Sammy Sosa are the only three players who have hit more than 62 homers in a single season, but they have all been attached to performance-enhancing drugs.

Judge is currently the AL single-season home run leader, and leads the league in almost all offensive categories (on-base percentage, slugging percentage, wins above replacement, home runs, RBI, and so on.) But very few of the stats take into account the impact of stolen bases and baserunning.

Ohtani is on pace for 50 stolen bases and has only been caught stealing five times. That is a net of 45 extra bases (Judge has seven stolen bases). Ohtani is also one of the fastest baserunners in the game, and he is among the leaders in extra bases taken while being on base. The impact of the stolen base is greater than just the extra base itself.  The stress and attention deficit it causes the opposing pitcher is impactful, as well. If one were to add the total extra bases taken because of Ohtani’s speed, it significantly closes the gap with Judge’s OPS.

Overall, Judge is having the better season because he is playing centre field every day, while Ohtani is only serving as a designated hitter. I actually believe Ohtani’s potential record-setting offensive season is slightly more impactful, but it’s close.

Baseball the big winner 

The fact that Judge is a Yankee and Ohtani is a Dodger is so good for the game.

Baseball is consumed regionally by fans, but Judge and Ohtani are iconic stars with iconic franchises who draw even more attention to the game.

The health of baseball is always at its best when the large markets are thriving. Fans are drawn to the brand names and the superstars. The Dodgers and Yankees are first and second in home attendance and first and third in road attendance, respectively. They have viewing power in person and on television.

In some ways, Ohtani and Judge can be motivated by the attention they get, but it also adds to the pressure they feel to perform. It makes what they are doing that much more impressive. They are always on display and are held accountable for their performances by all of the fan and media attention.

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Francis finds his game

We have had so many cases over the last decade where pitchers have been in line to throw no-hitters and managers have opted to remove them because of pitch limits.

Jays manager John Schneider bucked the trend last Saturday, letting righty starter Bowden Francis go back out for the ninth inning after he had already thrown 111 pitches. Ultimately, Francis was removed after Taylor Ward’s home run leading off the ninth inning. 

Francis had averaged about 14 pitches per inning, so it was likely that he would have had to throw close to 125 pitches to close out the no-hitter. I’m completely okay with the fact that he was left in to try and accomplish the feat. Francis is 28 years old and not a young prospect. He has only thrown about 78 innings so far this season, which is completely within reasonable limits.

I’m all for protecting pitchers, but when a player is in the grey area with the number of pitches, I’m inclined to let him make history. Plus, with where the Jays are in the standings, they can afford to skip a start or push Francis back to give him extra rest if necessary.

The emergence of Francis in the second half of the season has been a very positive development for the Jays. He is locating his four-seam fastball, and his split-finger fastball has really improved. That’s helped his approach against left-handed hitters, while his curveball and slider neutralize right-handed batters.

His recent performance gives the Jays reason to believe they have four solid quality starters heading into 2025: Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios, Chris Bassitt and now Francis. Yariel Rodriguez needs to show he can stay healthy and be consistent in the No. 5 spot in the rotation.

I would still look to sign a couple of veteran swingmen for the rotation next season. Free agent pitchers like Andrew Heaney, Michael Lorenzen, Martin Perez and Nick Pivetta can be starters if needed, or can pitch from the bullpen. They aren’t dominant but their experience allows them to keep their team in the game and gives them a chance to win.