Soto, Guerrero and other storylines to follow this MLB off-season

Congratulations to the Los Angeles Dodgers, the 2024 World Series champions. They overcame loads of injuries to finish with the best overall record during the regular season, then found a way to navigate through the San Diego Padres, New York Mets and New York Yankees to win their second World Series in the past five years.

The win silences those who diminished their championship win in the COVID-shortened 2020 season. They have reached four World Series in the past eight years, winning two of them. 

The presentation of the Commissioner’s Trophy brought to a conclusion the 2024 MLB season and marked the beginning of the 2025 campaign. But there is no rest for the weary. Here are the top storylines going into the off-season.

1. Where will free agent outfielder Juan Soto end up and how much money will Scott Boras get him?

Juan Soto New York Yankees

Soto leaped right into free agent-speak after the Yankees elimination. When asked about free agency after the disappointing loss, Soto declared that he is excited for the opportunity to test the market and that he is open to all 30 teams. He indicated no stronger of a preference for the Yankees than any other team.

Yankees fans are disappointed by his tone, but if Soto were my client I would have instructed him to handle it exactly this way. Don’t give anyone an edge, even if they might have one. Make every team believe they will need to pay the most to land your services. Don’t give an indication that there is a preference that might chase other pursuers away.  

The Yankees will be highly motivated to re-sign Soto. The have gotten to know him and love his seriousness and commitment to the game. He changed their entire offence. 

Across town in Queens, the Mets covet Soto. They saw him a lot in the NL East with the Washington Nationals and up close in New York with the Yankees. Mets owner Steve Cohen has shown a willingness to spend and seems to not care about battling the Yankees for one of their own, which is a shift in ownership etiquette in New York. If it comes down to money, no owner has more to offer than Cohen.

There have been reports that the Dodgers will have interest in Soto if he wants to play on the west coast. Indications are that he would prefer the east coast, but money talks and the Dodgers clearly have plenty.

He would also fit the needs and budgets of the Seattle Mariners, Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs, Washington Nationals, Philadelphia Phillies, Detroit Tigers and San Francisco Giants.

Soto would fit the Blue Jays perfectly. He is exactly the type of hitter they need. The Jays were in on Shohei Ohtani, but there is no reward for coming in a close second on signing free agents. I find it hard to believe that the Jays would offer the largest contract to Soto, but a guy can dream.

I think the Yankees will get their man. Soto will get a 14-year deal for $701 million with deferrals that keep the present value of the deal around $40 million a year, which is what Yankee slugger and captain Aaron Judge is making.

This construct of a contract allows agent Scott Boras to claim he negotiated a record deal beyond Ohtani’s $700 million. The Yankees can justify the money because the present value of the contract will be less than Ohtani and near the price tag of the captain. A little creative accounting works for everyone.

2. Can the Blue Jays get Vladimir Guerrero Jr. locked up to a long-term deal? 

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Toronto Blue Jays

This will be a quicker negotiation than the Soto deal because there are just two motivated parties sitting at the table. It should be the first thing on the agenda for the Blue Jays front office.

The question will be the number of years. Guerrero will play next season at 26 years old. I suggested that a 26 year-old Soto would get a 14-year deal with the Yankees. I don’t think Guerrero will get as long a contract, but I would not be surprised at a 12-year deal for anywhere from $27 million to $30 million a year.

3. How will the Mets spend their millions?

New York Mets

The Mets have about $180 million coming off of the books this winter. One thing we know is that money burns a hole in Cohen’s wallet.

The Mets made a valiant run this year all the way to the NLCS. It was a bit of a surprising and overachieving season, especially since so much of the money they were paying out this year was going to players no longer in the organization. 

The Mets have to decide how much they are willing to pay slugging first baseman Pete Alonso, who has secured Boras as his agent. The two parties have so far been far apart in how they see Alonso’s value. But the longer Alonso waits the more inclined the Mets may be to spend money elsewhere, including on Soto.

If the Mets go after Soto as most anticipate, it will start a battle in New York. The Mets and Yankees have never gone after each other’s free agents as part of an unstated gentleman’s agreement. That won’t apply to Cohen, who gets what he wants by writing the biggest cheque.

It could be a showdown between Yankee owner Hal Steinbrenner and Cohen, with Boras and Soto as the beneficiaries.  If the Mets do sign Soto, expect the Yankees to respond by signing Alonso. This has a chance to be a cage match in New York City. 

4. Will Gerrit Cole become a free agent?

Gerrit Cole

Cole has four years remaining at $36 million per year on the nine-year deal he signed with the Yankees. If he opts out, the Yankees can add another year to the deal for $36 million to void the opt out, bumping the deal to a five-years at $180 million.

There is speculation that the Yankees may let Cole walk, especially since he missed the first three months of the 2024 season with elbow inflammation. Cole could certainly command at least $40 million per year in the open market for at least five years if he is deemed healthy. 

5. All eyes on Garrett Crochet

Garrett Crochet Chicago White Sox

Crochet (6-12, 3.58 ERA, 209 strikeouts in 146 innings) wasn’t traded by the White Sox at the deadline, but he may be the most sought-after pitcher available this winter.

Crochet, who was coming back from Tommy John surgery, had reached significant innings pitched levels as the trade deadline approached, which diminished his trade value because an acquiring team would have had to use him as a reliever to protect his arm.

Crochet didn’t pitch in 2022 and only threw a combined 25 innings in 2023 between the majors and minors. He jumped all the way up to 146 innings in 2024.

Now he can be viewed as a full starter to interested parties. The White Sox have control of his contract for two more seasons before he becomes a free agent. They are not going to be a competitive team within that time frame, so he’s a prime trade candidate to aid the rebuilding process.