The bright spots in a disappointing Blue Jays season

Published Oct 01, 2024 at 10:12 AM ET

Like many others following the Toronto Blue Jays, I’ve focused mostly on the negatives in a disappointing 2024 season. But it is worth taking time to note a number of positives, because there were some.

It starts with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. He had a monster season in 2024. He looks again like the slugger who was the runner-up for American League MVP in 2021. Vladdy hit 48 home runs, with 111 RBI and scored 123 runs in 2021. He had a 167 OPS+ that season. This year, he hit 30 homers with 44 doubles while driving in 103 runs and scoring 98. He had a 166 OPS+. He hit .323/.396/.544 this year, and finished second to Bobby Witt Jr (.332) for the AL batting title.

It is easy to forget that Guerrero is just 25 years old. It seems like he has been around for a decade already. The Jays still have control of his services for another season before he becomes a free agent.

Now is the time for the Jays to sign him to a long-term deal. It has been a difficult negotiation over the past couple of years because Guerrero had significantly underperformed his 2021 season. It was impossible to find common ground in negotiations. Guerrero wanted to be paid like the MVP candidate he was in 2021, and the team could only justify offers far less because of his step back offensively.

One of the best outcomes of 2024 season is that the Jays front office and Guerrero’s camp now view him in a similar fashion and should be able to find common ground on a long-term deal.

It should be a main priority of the off-season. Sign Vlad!

Francis finds himself as a starter

Another huge positive was the development and emergence of Bowden Francis as an impact starter in the rotation. On the season, Francis was 8-5 with a 3.30 ERA over 27 appearances.

As a reliever, he was 3-1 with a 4.39 ERA, but he went on a run after the Jays committed to him as a starter. In 13 starts he was 5-4 with a 2.92 ERA. He took two starts into the ninth inning with a no-hitter, only to lose them to solo home runs. As a starter, he held opponents to a .166 batting average (45 hits in 77 innings pitched) and a 0.75 WHIP.

The Jays have Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios, Chris Bassett and Francis all returning for the 2025 season. That is a great start to the core of a quality pitching staff.

Francis’ stuff reminds me a bit of Gausman. He doesn’t have as much velocity as Gausman with his fastball, but the high four-seam fastball paired with a great split-finger fastball and a curveball allows Francis to change the hitters’ eye level and keeps them off-balance. Gausman gets more swing-and-miss, while Francis relies more upon weak contact.

Francis really adds to the length and depth of the rotation. He effectively replaces the loss of Alek Manoah (Tommy John surgery) in the rotation.

The executives and scouts that I spoke with around the game are very impressed with Francis. He locates his pitches and keep hitters off-balance with his sequencing.

Horwitz can hit

I think Spencer Horwitz is going to be a legitimate hitter at the major-league level.

He took advantage of his opportunity to show what he can do as a hitter this season. He hit .265/.357/.433 in 97 games, and I believe there is another level for him. He had an OPS over .940 at Triple-A in each of the past two seasons. He has excellent plate discipline and some pop in his bat. Plus, he is a left-handed hitter, which the Jays desperately need for balance and depth in their lineup.

Horwitz really needs to work on his defence. His best position is first base but that is taken by Guerrero. The Jays tried a look with Guerrero playing some third base and Horwitz playing first, but it’s not the best defensive configuration for the team. Horwitz needs to emerge as the Jays’ second baseman, or he can be a super sub who plays every day but moves from position to position.

Judge, Ohtani take centre stage in the postseason

Two off-seasons ago, the Yankees committed a nine-year, $360-million contract to Aaron Judge. Last year, the Los Angeles Dodgers signed Shohei Ohtani to a 10-year $700-million deal. Two major investments for two superstar players. It certainly appears that both contracts were worth the investment as Judge and Ohtani are likely to win the AL and NL MVP awards this season.

Judge hit .322/.458/.701 with 58 home runs, 144 RBI and 122 runs scored. His 223 OPS+ is the best by a right-handed hitter since 1900. Ohtani is the first 50/50 player in MLB history as he finished with 54 homers and 59 stolen bases. He hit .310 and finished just short of winning the triple crown. Like Judge, he led the league in OBP, SLG, OPS, OPS+, HR and RBI. The duo put together MVP seasons while producing two of the most impactful offensive years ever.

But Judge and Ohtani were not signed for great individual seasons. They were signed for the playoffs and World Series championships. The Yankees have not won a World Series since 2009. That is unacceptable to their fans and ownership. Judge, as the captain, faces serious pressure to add a championship to his resume.

The Dodgers won the World Series during the 2020 pandemic-shortened season. There are many who don’t consider that a real championship. Ohtani will be playing in October for the first time in his career. He won’t be considered one of, if not the greatest ever, if he doesn’t earn a ring.

Playoff predictions

Now that the playoff teams have been finalized, here is how I see them unfolding:

NL Wild Card

Milwaukee Brewers defeat the New York Mets
San Diego Padres defeat the Atlanta Braves

NL Division Series

San Diego Padres defeat the Los Angeles Dodgers
Philadelphia Phillies defeat the Milwaukee Brewers

NL Championship Series

Philadelphia Phillies defeat the San Diego Padres

AL Wild Card

Baltimore Orioles defeat the Kansas City Royals
Houston Astros defeat the Detroit Tigers

AL Division Series

New York Yankees defeat the Baltimore Orioles
Houston Astros defeat the Cleveland Guardians