The sooner the Jays get Guerrero signed, the better

He is back. The 2021 version of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has returned to Toronto and the Blue Jays.

Guerrero put up huge numbers in 2021 en route to a runner-up finish in American League Most Valuable Player voting behind Shohei Ohtani. He hit .311/.401/.601 with 48 homers, adding 123 runs scored and 111 RBI that season. He had 29 doubles, one triple and 86 walks, while striking out just 110 times.

Guerrero is hitting .328/.400/.564 this season with 28 homers, 40 doubles and one triple. He has driven in 92 runs and scored 85. His strikeout and walk rates are similar to 2021, but he’s both striking out and walking a bit less.

The only real difference is that he has swapped out a few homers for doubles. But make no mistake, this is another monster year for the Toronto slugger. 

This season is the type of performance Guerrero needed to convince the Blue Jays front office that he can still be among the elite of baseball’s elite offensive players. He is the MVP candidate that he was a few years ago.

Guerrero’s 2022 and 2023 seasons weren’t bad by any means: 133 OPS+ in 2022 and 116 OPS+ in 2023. But they were a far cry from his 167 OPS+ in 2021 and his 170 OPS+ this year. Remember, 100 OPS+ is an average player. Guerrero’s 170 OPS+ this year means he is 70 per cent better than the average player (adjusted for stadium factors).

The biggest obstacle in contract negotiations between the Jays and Guerrero has been trying to pinpoint exactly who he is as a player. Is he the guy who finished second in the MVP voting in 2021, or is he just a good-to-very good player? Each of those evaluations come with their own price point when considering a long-term contract.

Guerrero wants to be paid like the guy he was in 2021, while the team was more conservative, likely considering the 2022 season as his standard moving forward.

But this monster season makes it clear that Guerrero must be considered an MVP-calibre player. He is still just 25 years old and has figured some things out about his swing and approach that are critical to long-term success.

The Jays have just one more year of control before Guerrero hits free agency. There are grounds to make a deal now that the team and Guerrero have a much closer evaluation of who he is as a player. The gap was too broad before this season. Any previous offer from the team would have have fallen far short of what Guerrero and his camp believe about his ability.  Not anymore.

There is enough chatter out there suggesting that shortstop Bo Bichette’s preference will be to move on from Toronto after the 2025 season. Even if that isn’t true, the Blue Jays and Bichette’s camp will be significantly apart on what would be fair value for his next deal since this season has been a total bust for him.

With Bichette potentially out of the picture, the Jays need to lock up Guerrero for the long term. Toronto needs an aircraft carrier in the middle of the lineup moving forward. Guerrero is sitting in the catbird seat, just waiting for Ross Atkins and Mark Shapiro to come to the table with an offer.

Term the real test for clubs on mega deals

The challenge for clubs when considering long-term mega deals is more about the years than the dollars. Agents make their money by getting teams to offer more years than they are comfortable with giving.

Guerrero will be looking for a contract starting in the early prime of his career (26 years old) through at least his age-35 season. If I’m Guerrero’s agent, I would be shooting for a 13-year contract, which would keep Vladdy in a Blue Jays uniform until the age of 38.

A relevant contract to consider is the one first baseman Matt Olson signed with the Atlanta Braves in March of 2022. He signed as a player with more than five years of service time, but did so at the age of 28. Guerrero would be signing at the same service-time level, but would be two years younger. Olson accepted an eight-year deal for $168 million, taking him through the age of 35. There is a team option for the 2030 season that could make the deal nine years for $188 million. Olson came to the Braves after they failed to re-sign free-agent first baseman Freddie Freeman, who ultimately signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers for six years and $162 million (annual average value of $27 million) at the age of 32 in 2022.

Olson is a career 133 OPS+ player, while Freeman is a career 142 OPS+ player. Guerrero is a 137 OPS + in his career. Guerrero is a better hitter than Olson, but not as good as Freeman. That would logically slot him in between the two in dollars. However, the Olson and Freeman contracts are a couple of years old, so there will be a bump. Guerrero is obviously much younger than both players, so he will get more years than either Olson or Freeman.

Atkins and the Jays will want as short of a contract as they can get. They will have a sense of what Guerrero’s agent will be seeking because they have already likely had conceptual discussions. The agent will also have some sense as to where the Jays would be looking for a deal.

How a deal gets done

If I were the Jays I would offer 10 years and $270 million initially. 

I would explain my offer by acknowledging that the deal would make Vladdy the longest-termed and highest-paid player in franchise history. The $27 million a year brings him in line with Freeman, who is an elite player, while acknowledging that although Vladdy isn’t quite as good as Freeman, we are recognizing the market has shifted up over the last two years and thought it appropriate to bring him equal to the Dodgers superstar. The 10-year term takes Guerrero to age 35, just as the Olson deal takes him to the age of 35.

I would expect that anything less than a 10-year offer would be met with anger from Guerrero’s camp, and would be deemed not be worthy of a counter. Any deal closer to the $22 million a year that Olson got versus the $27 million of Freeman would also shut down negotiations before they started.

Even with that being said, I would expect Guerrero’s camp to react with disappointment to my offer because that’s what agents do. They will say it’s far short of what an iconic talent is worth and doesn’t recognize the value he brings to the franchise as its most important and popular player.

My response would be that we welcome hearing what they believe is more in line with his value. I wouldn’t get defensive or react to the emotion they show.

I would suspect the counter offer would be for 13 years and $30 million per year ($390 million), which would create a three-year, $120-million gap between our proposals. I would expect to hear about Manny Machado’s contract with the San Diego Padres and Bryce Harper’s deal with the Philadelphia Phillies.

The gap may sound insurmountable, but it’s not. I would tell them that I would bend on the years, but we’re not looking at the annual average value at $30 million, so the offer is 11 years at $27 million a year.

They will likely respond by saying they appreciate the extra year, but the AAV has to move, as well. After a lot of back and forth, the deal gets done at 12 years for $324 million.

The sooner the Jays get Guerrero signed, the better. It will give them clarity for the 2025 season and beyond, from both a financial and roster standpoint.

There is a deal to be made. It’s time to get it done.