Blue Jays still have time to salvage key off-season

I know that being a general manager looks easy.

You identify the free-agent players you want, and then sign them to improve your team. If there is a player on another team who is available and can help your club, just make an offer, and acquire him. What is so difficult?

If only it was that easy.

Remember, any player you think can help your team could also help many other teams. So, you have to somehow distinguish your team from the rest of the pack. Most of the time it is by bidding the highest for free agents or talent in trades. But there are times when budgets limit the amount of money you have available to spend on a player, or you don’t have the depth of talent to make a trade or the right fit to satisfy the needs of others.

Then there are the times when you are willing to pay the highest price, but you still can’t close the deal. Players have choices too. They can be affected by geography, family, history, stadium factors, etc. In the trade market, there are some executives who won’t trade within their own league or division. There are so many factors that complicate trades and free agency. It’s not as easy as some think. You can’t just get who you want when you want them.

If you doubt what I’m saying, just ask Ross Atkins and Mark Shapiro. They have come so close to landing Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto and Corbin Burnes over the past couple of years. They were legitimately in on all three superstar players, but their interest wasn’t enough. They suffered three losses in those pursuits, despite matching or beating the accepted offers for two of the three.

The Jays’ front office needs some wins. Jays’ fans need some wins. There are still some wins to be had this off-season.

The Jays have been obsessed with run prevention over the past few seasons. It’s an important aspect of the game for sure, but so too is run production. The best teams have a balance of both. The Jays have been out of balance. They have lacked offence and hoped internal improvements would be enough.

Yes, the Jays were in on Soto, who would have dramatically improved run production, but the pivot after losing out on him has again been focused on run prevention so far. They traded for Gold Glove second baseman Andres Gimenez and pursued ace pitchers Burnes and Max Fried. They have also made some nice additions to the bullpen, which really struggled a year ago.

But this is a team that desperately needs offensive help. It’s a bit unclear how much money Atkins has to spend, but we do know that he offered Soto somewhere around $47.5 million per year. So, he should have at least that amount to spend on other players.

I believe the Jays need to be focused on adding offence. The good news is there are still good options available. If Toronto doesn’t spend the money, then it means that ownership has restricted what Atkins can spend. From experience, if I’m given the money to spend on payroll I am spending it. I am not saving it for a rainy day.

There are reports that the Blue Jays have an offer on the table for switch-hitting outfielder Anthony Santander. They also have interest in third baseman Alex Bregman and first baseman Pete Alonso. All three of them could help improve Toronto’s run production. Quite honestly, the Jays need at least two of the three to get back in balance with their run production and prevention ratio.

Entering the off-season, my belief was that the priority was to sign Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to a long-term extension. I thought it should be done in November. It would have given cost certainty for the long-term. It would have been a statement to other free agents about the organization’s commitment to winning. With Guerrero entering his final season before free agency, time is of the essence.

The pursuit of Soto seemed to be a statement that the Jays would rather have Soto than Vladdy. I can understand that logic, as I like Soto as a player more than Guerrero. But it was unclear how much of a chance the Jays ever had to land Soto, while there seemed to be a real interest from Guerrero to finish his career in Toronto. I can certainly understand why Guerrero could feel offended that he is the second choice.

Choosing to pursue Soto over Guerrero has also now made the price to extend Vlad Jr. increase exponentially. Whereas $350 million might have been a deal that could be made in November, Soto getting $765 million from the Mets means the price for Guerrero may be near $450 million now.

Guerrero has given the Jays a deadline to get a deal done by the start of spring training. It’s highly unlikely that a deal will get done, which is why I think the Jays should sign all three of Bregman, Santander and Alonso. Then I would trade Guerrero for the best package available - prospects, or a starting pitcher and quality reliever, or a young outfielder and shortstop.

My plan may be wishful thinking, but the Jays need to be creative. Even if they just sign Bregman and Santander, it will be a successful off-season. With reports that the Jays are one of the three teams remaining in the Roki Sasaki sweepstakes this could still be a huge off-season. If the Jays land Sasaki, they could trade Chris Bassitt’s $22 million salary and then definitely add Alonso - and maybe even keep Guerrero for the season and really slug the baseball. 

This is a critical off-season for the Jays with Guerrero and Bo Bichette headed to free agency after the 2025 season. Their decisions about Guerrero and other acquisitions will dictate whether 2026 is the start of a retooling process or a continuation of the pursuit of October baseball.

Despite the losses so far, this can still be a victorious off-season for the Jays.