Guerrero deal a major win for Blue Jays

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and the Toronto Blue Jays will be attached for the rest of this season and 14 more. The two sides reportedly finally got an extension done on Sunday for 14 years and $500 million. 

Guerrero and his camp had originally proclaimed a Feb. 18 (the start of spring training) deadline that came and went without a deal. By Guerrero’s own account, the two sides were not close. Guerrero talked more than I would have expected from a guy who gave a deadline and didn’t get what he wanted. He shared that he wanted $500 million in net present value. He didn’t want a deal that looked better than it really was because of deferred compensation. 

Reports had the Blue Jays’ final offer at the Feb. 18 deadline right around $450 million. Guerrero made it clear that he would be open to further negotiations if the Jays had a legitimate offer.

Jays team president Mark Shapiro addressed the media a week before the season opener and said, "I think we're going to sign him. I think we're going to extend him. We have such a clear alignment on the desired outcome.” His comments made no sense to me at the time, since the Jays had made a final offer that had come up short by a significant amount of money. In my mind, the only way he could be so confident was if he knew had had ownership approval to go to Guerrero’s number. It also made me wonder why they just didn’t go there on Feb. 18. 

Ultimately, the Jays blinked and gave Guerrero what he wanted. There wasn’t more negotiation, only concession on behalf of the club.

This is the price of doing business for a large-market team. By playing it out the way he did, Guerrero squeezed just about every last dollar out of the system and the Blue Jays.

The two sides struggled to find a good starting point in negotiations prior to this because of the peaks and valleys in Guerrero’s performance over the years. At times he’s been good, and at times he’s been great.

It wasn’t until after the 2024 season that the Jays were willing to consider his premium value. But even then, the organization decided they would prefer to sign Juan Soto over Guerrero, even though their chances of signing Soto were remote. It seemed pretty obvious that the Jays weren’t going to be able to compete dollar for dollar with the New York Mets or New York Yankees.

Soto’s price tag ($765 million) went through the roof. It blew away the deal Shohei Ohtani (about $460 million in net present value) made with the Dodgers the year before. The Jays had been willing to make the same deal with Ohtani that he made with the Dodgers, but he chose L.A. instead. Reports had their offers to Soto in the $700 million range, but it was unclear if there were deferrals in those offers that lowered the net present value.

The Jays’ delays in negotiating with Guerrero and his agent may have cost them more than $150 million. If the Jays had made Guerrero their priority in November of last year, they might have been able to sign him for about $350 million. But once Soto’s deal went to $765 million without deferrals it pulled the rest of the market up and Guerrero rode Soto’s coattails to $500 million.

The end may justify the means in this case. The Jays got Guerrero signed and that may be enough. The organization had their reasons why they prioritized Ohtani and Soto over Guerrero. The Jays’ fanbase is ecstatic that they kept their man.

Vladdy deal a defining moment

I said back in the fall that the Guerrero negotiations were a defining moment for the Jays’ front office.

If they failed to sign their homegrown star, the team would look much different in 2026 and beyond. It would have been the end of an era. It could have meant that Guerrero, Bo Bichette, Chris Bassitt and Chad Green, all pending free agents, would be traded at the deadline if the team wasn’t in a playoff position. It could have led to a rebuild of sorts.

On the front office side, Shapiro’s contract expires after this season while general manager Ross Atkins is signed through the 2026 season. 

A signing like Guerrero is a huge organizational decision. It’s not one made by the general manager. Sure, Atkins can say he wants to sign him, but this is a deal that is approved at the ownership level and directed by Shapiro. Think about the fact that the team committed a half a billion dollars to a single player when the value of the team has been estimated to be about $2.1 billion by Forbes.

The credit for this signing belongs to Shapiro. I believe getting the deal done, plus the significant improvements made at the Rogers Centre, should secure his role as president of the Jays for another several years.

As for Atkins, I think the result on the field will likely dictate his future. If the Jays make the playoffs, he will return in 2026 and if they don’t, he will likely be replaced. At least they have won over the fans in the short term, which is a step in the right direction.

Can the Jays build a winner?

As I mentioned, this sort of signing is the price of doing business. It’s the type of contract given to MLB superstars. But make no mistake about it, this contract will not end well.

The length of the deal is a way to spread the money out over time. The Jays understand that Guerrero will not be nearly the player from age 36 to 40 that he will be from age 27 to 35. Very few of these long-term contracts age with grace: Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, Giancarlo Stanton, Alex Rodriguez – the list goes on and on. The hope is that the team that signs a player to this type of contract can win a World Series or two over the course of the deal and be competitive year after year in pursuit of the trophy.

The key moving forward for the Jays won’t be if Guerrero produces. He will. The key is what can they afford around him on the team. Can they spread around whatever remaining money they have in their budget to build a winner? 

The Jays have a bunch of money coming off of the books after this season. The first big decision will be deciding whether to keep Bichette. Does he want to stay in Toronto? How much will it cost?

But remember, keeping Guerrero and Bichette doesn’t make the Jays better, it just keeps them the Jays. They need to spend to improve the team moving forward. They will need change and additions beyond the big two position players.

Signing Guerrero is a statement to free agents that the Jays are in it to win it, but they will still battle the perception that playing north of the border is too cumbersome on families. This is an area that I would really focus on if I were in the Jays front office. I would put together a video of player after player singing the praises of playing in Toronto and dismissing the customs and immigration challenges that feel prohibitive to prospective free agents.

For now, the Jays have a major win. At some point the glow of victory in the signing of Guerrero will wear off and it will become about winning games again. I give it two weeks. Then it will be about where this team is in the standings and if they can compete with the powerhouse teams in the AL East.