Which Blue Jays are getting traded, and where to?

The Major League Baseball trade deadline is next Tuesday at 6:00 p.m. ET. And it’s no longer a debate – the Blue Jays are clearly sellers. Every indication is they will be looking to trade players on expiring contracts, which means that they will keep the core of the team: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios and Chris Bassitt. But let’s take a look at the players they’re likely to trade and what a potential return might look like. 

The depth and quality of each organization’s farm system is different. The number five prospect for the New York Mets might be ranked 15th if he was in the Baltimore Orioles. So, when I reference the type of prospect the Jays might get back, it will be on average across all teams. A first-tier prospect means a top 10 player in a farm system. A second-tier ranks 11-20 and a third tier ranks 21-30.

I fully expect the Blue Jays to trade Yusei Kikuchi before the deadline on Tuesday. He falls in the middle-tier of starting pitchers available. The teams that lose out on premium starters – Tigers lefty Tarik Skubal and White Sox ace Garrett Crochet – will have to focus on pitchers like Kikuchi, Detroit’s Jack Flaherty, Angels lefty Tyler Anderson, Tampa’s Zach Eflin, Erick Fedde of the White Sox and the Cubs’ Jameson Taillon. A trade of Kikuchi would likely yield a player ranked 5-10, plus a second-tier player or a couple of third-tier players. My prediction is he will be dealt to the Minnesota Twins.

Yimi Garcia has been fantastic for the Jays this year. He has only allowed 16 hits and eight walks in 30 innings pitched. That is good for an 0.80 WHIP and an opponents’ batting average of .154.  He appeared in 62, 61 and 73 games, respectively, over the past three seasons. He is a bulldog. He will be one of the most highly sought after relievers behind Tanner Scott of the Marlins and Mason Miller of the Oakland Athletics, though Miller’s value took a bit of a hit Thursday after he was placed on the injured list for a non-pitching hand injury he suffered while punching a training table. Although Garcia is getting some save opportunities in the absence of Jordan Romano, I think he will be pursued as a set-up man. The Jays will likely get a bottom first-tier or top second-tier player plus another second-tier player for him. I predict that he goes to the New York Mets. 

(Editor's note: Yimi Garcia was traded to the Seattle Mariners after publishing.)

Trevor Richards is not having as good of a season this year as he had last year. He struck out 105 batters in 72.2 innings in 2023. This year he only has 48 punchouts in 50 innings. But there will be a team out there who will take a shot to see if they can tweak something with his mechanics or pitch selection and get those strikeout numbers up. Each team thinks they are smarter than the others and can fix guys. Richards is inexpensive ($2.15 million) in dollars and acquisition costs. It would like only take a third-tier prospect in return for his services. I predict the Kansas City Royals will take a flyer on Richards. They don’t have enough swing and miss in their bullpen. 

Danny Jansen is a solid game caller and receiver behind the plate. He is a leader and has pop in his bat. There will be interest in his services. But catchers are generally tougher to trade at the deadline unless a team has lost a player to injury or is weak at the position. Jansen can play every day for two weeks or sit for two weeks and jump back in and perform. He is a good teammate and is very good at pre-game preparation, whether he is in the game or on the bench. He could net the Jays a second-tier and third-tier prospect. His overall trade value will be determined by his role. If the acquiring team needs a starting catcher, it will be one price. If he’s the backup, the return will be less. I predict a trade to the Pittsburgh Pirates for Jansen.

Justin Turner has underperformed this season but he still offers a quality professional approach. He is a student of hitting and likes to talk about it with his teammates. Turner has a .241/.339/.357 slash line. He just isn’t slugging the ball. I could see him as a nice option for a playoff contender coming off the bench or serving as a part of a platoon. He has had 368 playoff plate appearances. That is valuable experience he could bring to a team. He will bring back a second-tier prospect in a trade. I predict the Cleveland Guardians will come calling for JT. 

Kevin Kiermaier was placed on waivers earlier this month and went unclaimed. He has announced that this will be his last season. It seems unlikely that he will be traded unless a team needs an extra outfielder who can really play defence. He won’t offer much offensively, but he wouldn’t be a bad depth option in centre field for protection. The Jays would likely have to pick up most if not all of his salary and would only get a third-tier prospect in return. But I can see a fit with the Philadelphia Phillies. They are as well-rounded as any team, but they are looking to upgrade in centre field. Plus, they are a veteran team where Kiermaier would fit in. 

The bigger picture

Ross Atkins Mark Shapiro Toronto Blue Jays

I have written previously that I thought Ross Atkins and Mark Shapiro deserve another chance. I still feel that way and it appears ownership does as well. If they were contemplating a move, they wouldn’t typically leave the outgoing executives in place to make personnel decisions to impact the future of the organization. I am sure Atkins and Shapiro feel worse than anyone that things went south this season. They want to turn it around.

I think the Jays need to push all their chips in and go for it in 2025. When building a team there is a business cycle and a baseball cycle. They business cycle tends to mirror the baseball performance. After investing about half of a billion dollars on stadium renovations, the Jays need fans to keep showing up. If they were to rebuild the roster, it would send the business plan in a spiral.

The Jays need to go all in. They need to do what it takes to win and keep the window open, even if they have to spend themselves into financial losses. They will lose less if they win than if they tear the team apart. If for some reason they struggle again next year, then they can cut their losses at the deadline, get back in line financially and restock the farm system.

The next several days are going to be a lot of fun.