With contract signed, Guerrero needs to relax at the plate

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and the Blue Jays negotiated on and off over the past few years and finally agreed to a 14-year $500 million contract extension. He passed his physical and the deal has been officially announced to the baseball world.

Now what?

Now Guerrero needs to hit like he is capable of doing. He certainly hasn’t set the world on fire so far this season, finally hitting his first home run on Wednesday in a 3-1 win over the Atlanta Braves.

Guerrero isn’t the first player to struggle while negotiating a contract during the season. It’s always hard to quantify the cause and effect of in-season negotiations, but generally they have a negative impact on players. That’s the reason players and teams prefer not to negotiate during the season. The player can try too hard to justify the dollars he wants, while the team may become more rigid in its negotiating stance if the player struggles.

The Jays and Guerrero got their deal done early enough that it shouldn’t have a long-term impact on this season. But that is really up to Guerrero. He needs to relax and understand that he doesn’t have to overtry to prove he’s worthy of the megadeal he signed.

His numbers so far are pretty consistent with his career statistics and underlying metrics. Guerrero is hitting the ball hard and barreling it at a very high rate. He also hits a lot of balls hard on the ground because of his well-documented low launch angle. I believe the home run production will start to flow now that he has the first one out of the way.

The more baserunners that get on in front of Guerrero, the more likely the power numbers will grow. Pitchers will have to try to get him out by throwing the ball over the plate instead of getting him to expand out of the zone. That means that the better Bo Bichette performs in the leadoff spot and Alan Roden in the ninth spot in the lineup, the more good pitches Guerrero will get.

Sure, Anthony Santander hitting behind Guerrero will help some, but I firmly believe sluggers are protected in the lineup more by the hitters in front of them getting on base than by the players behind them.
 

Bichette bounces back

Speaking of Bichette, he is in the walk year of his contract and staring at free agency as well.

He hasn’t homered yet this year, but I’m not worried about that. Remember, he played only one game last year after July 19.

Bichette is doing what a good hitter should do after so much time off. He is getting his legs beneath him first. He’s trying to make solid contact and hit for a good average in the first few weeks of the season. So far, he’s hitting .305/. 348/.402.  

I love that Bichette is getting his hits, lining the ball to right field as well as pulling the ball to left. He’s hitting it where it is pitched.

Once he gets comfortable, he will look for a pitch during the at-bat to drive. He should never focus on home runs; they will happen by mistake. Bichette will end up with 20-30 homers and will be among the league leaders in hits (he’s currently tied for second behind Aaron Judge).
 

Life without Scherzer

The Blue Jays are currently in second place in the AL East at 11-8, just a game behind the New York Yankees.

Their offence has been mediocre so far, as they find themselves in the middle of the pack in runs scored. The key has been the pitching (3.36 ERA, second in the AL), particularly the starting pitching (3.39 ERA, third in the AL). The starters have kept them in just about every game. The bullpen (3.48 ERA, seventh in AL) is significantly better than it was last year.

This is true despite the loss of Max Scherzer to the injured list with a sore thumb. He has had a cortisone injection, but it is unclear how much it has really helped. He has begun throwing the baseball again to varying degrees of comfort. He’s going to see another hand specialist, but his return is uncertain.  

At this point, the Jays have to consider life without Scherzer. This is an issue that he has had in previous seasons, and it has returned. It seems like nobody is sure if there is a solution to his pain.

Easton Lucas (2-1, 4.70 ERA) has filled in for the veteran righty pretty well so far in that fifth spot in the rotation. Yariel Rodriguez can start as well, if needed, so the Blue Jays have some built-in protection. The reality is that Toronto can’t rely upon Scherzer for any contribution this year. Whatever they get will be gravy.
 

Spitting Seeds

- The NL West is a very strong division. We all knew the Dodgers (14-6) would be great, but the San Diego Padres (15-4) and San Francisco Giants (13-6) have the two best records in baseball respectively, while the Arizona Diamondbacks (14-7) have won six straight games.  The Dodgers, Padres and Diamondbacks were all expected to be quite good, but the Giants have been a very pleasant surprise so far.

- Steinbrenner Field in Tampa which is the home of the New York Yankees for spring training is the regular-season home for the Tampa Bay Rays this season while the roof of Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg is being repaired after being damaged by a Hurricane Milton. So far, Steinbrenner Field is playing like a band box. There have been 40 homers hit in the first 15 games played there. The weather conditions and the field dimensions are creating a different type of experience for the fans and teams. The Rays aren’t built for power, so it may hurt them in the long run unless their pitchers do a better job of keeping the ball in the ballpark than the opposition.

- The Jays just finished winning a series against the Atlanta Braves (5-13) who are struggling miserably at the start of this season. They started 0-7, and no team has never made the playoffs after starting that poorly. The Braves are the biggest disappointment in the game. They have lost a couple starting pitchers to the injured list and new outfielder, Jurickson Profar, has been suspended for 80 games for PED usage. They did get Spencer Strider back in their starting rotation. He threw well in the loss on Wednesday against the Jays. They are anxious for Ronald Acuna Jr, their superstar right fielder, to return from his second torn ACL. They better get their act together soon. If not, it will be too little too late to make up ground in the NL East.

- When asked about his slow start this season, New York Mets outfielder Juan Soto explained it was due to not having Yankee slugger Aaron Judge behind him in the lineup this season like he had as a member of the Yankees last year. It sure sounded like an excuse when it wasn’t necessary at all. All Soto had to say is that he’s really happy about the Mets record (11-5) so far and knows he’s going to get hot soon. Instead, his comments came across as a criticism of Mets first baseman Pete Alonso who hits behind Soto in the Mets lineup. Alonso (.365/.474/.730 with 5 HR and 21 RBI) isn’t Judge but he is actually producing like Judge (.409/.519/.830 with seven HR and 21 RBI) so far this year. They are ranked first and second in OPS right now.

Soto should never refer to the Yankees or Judge hitting behind him ever again. He chose the Mets. That should be the end of it with the Yankees. Judge will never hit behind him again.  Judge’s response to questions about the comments were vintage Aaron Judge. He said Soto is a great hitter and he will get going and he has a great hitter behind him in Alonso. He doesn’t want to talk about it anymore.