The case for and against every team in the AL East
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The race for the American League East should be a tight one in 2025.
According to FanGraphs’ projections, all five teams in the division are forecasted to finish with a record of above .500. That doesn’t mean it will happen of course – the last time it did was the 2005 National League East, per MLB’s Sarah Langs. But there is at least a decent case to be made for each team reaching the postseason.
The New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox aren’t often underdogs and certainly won’t be in 2025. The Baltimore Orioles averaged 96 wins in each of the previous two seasons. The Toronto Blue Jays have the pieces for a playoff run amid an uncertain future. And would anybody really be surprised if the Tampa Bay Rays ‘smoke-and-mirror’ their way into October like they have so many times before?
Anything is possible, that’s the beauty of a new season.
With Opening Day just around the corner, TSN.ca takes a comprehensive look at the range of outcomes for every team in the AL East.
Baltimore Orioles
Baltimore Orioles
Notable additions: Charlie Morton, Tomoyuki Sugano, Andrew Kittredge, Kyle Gibson, Gary Sanchez, Tyler O’Neill, Ramon Laureano
Notable losses: Corbin Burnes, John Means, Anthony Santander, James McCann, Eloy Jimenez, Austin Slater
The case for: Despite some post All-Star break struggles for the Orioles’ lineup in 2024, the core of their lineup is in place for years to come. Gunnar Henderson looks like a perennial MVP candidate, Colton Cowser finished second in Rookie of the Year voting and adding Tyler O’Neill and his 31 home runs should help make up for losing Anthony Santander’s power in the middle of the order.
They’re also getting dominant closer Felix Bautista back from Tommy John surgery, which helps reinforce a bullpen that struggled last season. The bullpen better improve, because the starting-five seems like a question mark.
The case against: When the Orioles lost Corbin Burnes to the Arizona Diamondbacks this winter, it seemed liked the ace designation would fall to Grayson Rodriguez. The 25-year-old was impressive last season but ran into elbow problems this spring and will begin the season on the injured list.
Behind him in the rotation are 41-year-old Charlie Morton, Zach Eflin, Dean Kremer, Tomoyuki Sugano and Cade Povich, who was announced as the fifth starter Sunday. Put another way, the Orioles may need to outscore their opponents rather than shut them down.
Baltimore has made the playoffs two straight years but have lost 11 straight playoff games stretching back to 2012. Well past their deep rebuild, simply reaching the playoffs is no longer the goal. There’s pressure to start winning in October now, and lots of it.
Boston Red Sox
Rafael Devers Boston Red Sox
Notable additions: Garrett Crochet, Walker Buehler, Patrick Sandoval, Liam Hendriks, Aroldis Chapman, Justin Wilson, Alex Bregman
Notable losses: Kenley Jansen, Nick Pivetta, Lucas Sims, Chris Martin, Tyler O’Neill, Reese McGuire, Danny Jansen
The case for: The Red Sox made a few sizeable acquisitions this winter, highlighted by the Garrett Crochet trade with the Chicago White Sox and the surprising signing of free agent Alex Bregman.
Crochet was an All-Star in 2024, his first professional season as a starter, and gives the Red Sox not only a strong starting-five, but one of the deepest in the league.
Bregman will help bolster a BoSox lineup that finished ninth in runs scored last season. The 30-year-old had strong numbers at Fenway Park during his nine-year career with the Houston Astros, slashing .375/.490/.750 with seven home runs in 21 games. For someone who hit all but one of his home runs to the pull side last year, there shouldn’t be much of a power drop-off going from the hitter-friendly left field Crawford Boxes in Houston to Fenway’s Green Monster.
The case against: As much as the Bregman signing should help the Red Sox get to the next level, it created some awkwardness early in spring training.
Before walking the comments back in mid-March, Rafael Devers was adamant that third base was his for good. The numbers say it should be Bregman’s. Devers led AL third baseman in errors in each of the past seven seasons and was a minus-nine last year in defensive runs saved, compared to plus-six for Bregman.
It might be a headache for manager Alex Cora, but any feelings that linger shouldn’t prevent them from winning games. What might be an issue are the injuries in their starting five. Thankfully it’s a deep staff, but that depth will be tested right out of the gate with Brayan Bello and Cooper Criswell expected to start the season on the injured list. On the offensive side, Masataka Yoshida will also begin the season on the shelf.
New York Yankees
New York Yankees Anthony Volpe Aaron Judge
Notable additions: Max Fried, Devin Williams, Fernando Cruz, Carlos Carrasco, Paul Goldschmidt, Cody Bellinger
Notable losses: Nestor Cortes, Clay Holmes, Tommy Kahnle, Tim Mayza, Cody Poteet, Juan Soto, Anthony Rizzo, Gleyber Torres, Jose Trevino, Jon Berti, Alex Verdugo
The case for: Losing Juan Soto is such a big blow that the Yankees probably won’t even be able to Moneyball it and “recreate him in the aggregate.” But they did take much of the money Soto would have cost and put it into other areas of the ballclub.
Cody Bellinger isn’t Soto – or maybe even half of Soto – but he should benefit from the short porch in right field and give Aaron Judge some protection. Going off OPS+, Jazz Chisholm went from an average hitter to 30 per cent better than average after coming over in a deal with the Miami Marlins mid-season, and the Yankees seem to have faith in Austin Wells as their everyday backstop, trading catcher Jose Trevino to the Cincinnati Reds for bullpen help.
The additions of Max Fried and Devin Williams are huge, especially Fried, who takes on the ace role in the absence of Gerrit Cole. Soto and Judge hitting back-to-back for years to come figures to be one of baseball’s biggest what ifs, but it’s entirely possible the Yankees still find a way to remain strong contenders with what they have left.
The case against: Injuries are playing a major role in many teams’ 2025 outlook, but perhaps none bigger than the Yankees. It was announced earlier this month that Cole would have Tommy John surgery and miss the entire season, while Luis Gil – last year’s Rookie of the Year – will be out at least three months with a lat strain. Postseason hero Giancarlo Stanton’s status is also a huge question mark as he deals with tendon issues in both elbows.
A team in a World Series window trying to overcome losing Soto is a lot to ask, but trying to do it with so many key pieces sidelined long-term is an extra tall order. New York has always had the resources to patch up holes, but the key will be making sure the ship doesn’t sink before general manager Brian Cashman is able to.
Tampa Bay Rays
Yandy Diaz Tampa Bay Rays
Notable additions: Alex Faedo, Ha-Seong Kim, Danny Jansen, Eloy Jimenez
Notable loses: Jeffrey Springs, Tyler Alexander, Jose Siri, Dylan Carlson
The case for: Nobody is better at piecing together a team than the Tampa Bay Rays. At least nobody had been before a disappointing 2024, snapping a playoff streak of five seasons. Tampa has a reputation of finding key contributors on the cheap and it wouldn’t be a surprise if they did it again this winter.
Ha-Seong Kim had a higher bWAR than both Fernando Tatis Jr. and Juan Soto with the San Diego Padres in 2023 and joins the Rays on a two-year deal. He’ll begin the season in a pullover as he recovers from shoulder surgery, but he no doubt raises the team’s ceiling. Danny Jansen is a good addition behind the plate and if anyone can rediscover the power Eloy Jimenez had early in his career, it’s Tampa.
Getting Shane McClanahan back from Tommy John surgery is a boost for the Rays’ rotation, but he’s going to begin the year on the injured list because of an inflamed nerve in his left triceps. Many feared the worst when McClanahan walked off the mound over the weekend, so the fact he shouldn't miss significant time feels like a win for the Rays.
The case against: Tampa scored the fewest runs in baseball last season among teams not named the White Sox. They were second last in slugging percentage, second last in OPS and third last in home runs. The bottom line is they couldn’t hit, and did they do anything splashy to fix that? Of course not.
Kim was their biggest signing and will be an upgrade once healthy, but his strengths are his glove and versatility rather than producing runs at a high level.
Playing the season out of a minor-league park also probably won’t help considering the impact it could have on their schedule. Steinbrenner Field in Tampa does not have a roof, likely meaning the Rays could be in for plenty of disruptions during Florida’s typically rainy summers. Something like that could pull the group together, but it also may be an added burden for a team with an already thin margin of error in a difficult division.
Toronto Blue Jays
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Toronto Blue Jays
Notable additions: Max Scherzer, Jeff Hoffman, Yimi Garcia, Nick Sandlin, Anthony Santander, Andres Gimenez
Notable losses: Jordan Romano, Spencer Horwitz
The case for: It would be surprising if the Blue Jays weren’t better this season. Anthony Santander fills a huge hole and should inject some thunder into a lineup that hit the fifth fewest home runs in the majors last season.
The rotation is in a good spot with the addition of Max Scherzer – who the Jays hope bounces back after thumb issues this spring – and emergence of Bowden Francis down the stretch last season. Pair them with one of the more reliable front-three starters in the league and the Jays’ self-professed goal of “run prevention” should be one of their strengths.
We’ll get to the downside of the impending free agency of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette shortly, but at the very least, the Jays should have a pair of hyper-motivated stars for 2025. Bichette is a near sure bet to improve on his .598 OPS from an injury-riddled 2024 and another year like last year will push Guerrero’s next contract even closer to Juan Soto territory. Who knows what comes after, but if the Jays are going to go anywhere in 2025, Guerrero and Bichette will be at the centre of it.
The case against: It’s obvious. The Guerrero and Bichette situation – more so Guerrero – is a ticking time bomb. Vladdy has said numerous times he is fully focused on the 2025 season, but as TSN Baseball Insider Steve Phillips noted in a column posted earlier this month, Guerrero is going to be a storyline everywhere he goes. Especially Boston and New York. To have that hanging over a team under so much pressure already is far from ideal.
The Jays have not won a playoff game since 2016, took a major step back last season and face as many long-term questions as any team in baseball. For the front office, the only option is winning, and this team has more weak spots heading into a make-or-break year than they’d like. Is the rotation deep enough to account for injury or regression? Did they add enough offence? What’s going on at third base?
Like the Rays, even if everything breaks right for Toronto in 2025, the strength of the division will leave them with little room to maneuver.