Morning Coffee: Rodgers set to 're-do' Jets home debut versus rival Patriots

The New York Jets and their fans have waited a very long time for this moment.

After what must have felt like an eternity, they’ll head to MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey tonight to cheer on their presumptive saviour against one of their bitter rivals in a prime-time showdown that is more than a year in the making.

Aaron Rodgers and the Jets will host the New England Patriots on Thursday Night Football.

After splitting their first two games on the road, it’s time for Rodgers to return to New York for his first snap at MetLife Stadium in exactly 374 days.

Rodgers is 4-1 all-time at MetLife Stadium.

If he can lead the Jets to a win in front of the home fans tonight, it will feel like every moment that led to tonight’s game was worth the wait.

However, there’s also a flip side to that coin.

While the spectacle surrounding his return alone will be worth the price of admission, there’s no doubt that Rodgers and the offence have struggled to live up to lofty expectations through the first two weeks of the season.

Will Rodgers produce better numbers tonight?

New York is favoured by nearly a touchdown at home.

Based on what we’ve seen around the NFL through the first two weeks, it might take Rodgers’ best performance in a Jets uniform to cover the spread.

This is the Morning Coffee for Thursday September 19^th, 2024.

Rodgers Set To “Re-Do” Jets Home Debut Versus Rival Patriots

In Week 18 last season, Trevor Siemian led New York to a 17-3 win over New England.

It was the Jets’ first win over the Patriots since 2015.

New York had lost 15 straight head-to-head meetings up until that point.

Now, with Rodgers back at quarterback in a re-do of his first home start, the Jets will try to secure consecutive wins over the Patriots for the first time since 2015-16.

New England has been the favourite in 24 straight head-to-head meetings against New York.

That will change tonight.

The Jets are a 6.5-point favourite at FanDuel.

Interestingly, big favourites have struggled to cover the number throughout the first two weeks of the season.

In fact, NFL favourites of six or more points have gone a combined 0-8 against the spread.

Meanwhile, it’s also interesting to note that New York has struggled in Week 3 in recent seasons.

The Jets have lost six straight Week 3 games.

Of course, all of this sets the table for Rodgers to deliver a statement win over the Patriots tonight and render those trends irrelevant.

However, for all the hype surrounding his return, it’s worth noting that the Jets offence has underachieved over the first two weeks.

The New York offence has registered 531 total yards.

That’s the lowest mark of any Rodgers-led team through the first two weeks of a season.

Rodgers has averaged just 171.5 passing yards per game through the first two weeks.

His passing yards prop for tonight’s game is 215.5.

Rodgers hasn’t produced a 300+ yard pass performance since Week 14 of the 2021 season.

Considering the Jets have had to travel on a short week, it might be more likely that they lean on Breece Hall and the rushing attack tonight against the Patriots than opening things up in the passing game.

Hall leads the Jets with 116 rushing yards and 207 scrimmage yards through two games.

In New York’s win over New England in Week 18 last season, Hall set career highs with 37 carries for 178 rushing yards.

While I’m still high on the connection between Rodgers and Garrett Wilson, the Jets should be able to run the football on a short week against a Patriots’ defence that will be without captain Ja’Whaun Bentley after he was sidelined with a torn pec in Week 2.

On the other side of the football, we know what New England wants to do on offence.

Running back Rhamondre Stevenson ranks second in the NFL with 51 scrimmage touches through Week 2.

Stevenson has carried the ball 46 times for 201 rushing yards through the first two games.

Despite averaging 23 attempts for 100.5 rushing yards, Stevenson’s rushing props are set at 16.5 attempts and 63.5 rushing yards.

He’s also been active in the passing game with five receptions for 15 yards on eight targets through two games.

While I expect Stevenson and Antonio Gibson to feature heavily for the Patriots again tonight, I’m going in a different direction for my FanDuel Best Bet.

I’m taking DeMario Douglas over 2.5 receptions -110.

Douglas was New England’s most explosive receiver last season, and he entered this year with high expectations.

However, the 23-year-old was held to two catches on three targets in a Week 1 win over the Cincinnati Bengals.

Then he didn’t receive a single target in an overtime loss to the Seattle Seahawks last week.

Douglas made it clear that he was unhappy with the lack of targets following Sunday’s loss.

Both head coach Jerod Mayo and quarterback Jacoby Brissett have told reporters that they need to make a concerted effort to get the ball in his hands more often.

All the underlying numbers indicate that Douglas can still gain separation, and he should get a great match-up tonight as he avoids Sauce Gardner working out of the slot.

The Patriots are a 6.5-point underdog and while they have looked very competitive through the first two weeks they could be forced to play from behind and throw the ball a little more tonight than in previous weeks.

This is the perfect spot for Douglas to go over 2.5 reception and 23.5 receiving yards.

I also like Douglas over 0.5 first quarter receiving yards at +135.

Regardless of whether they win or lose, the Patriots need to start pushing the ball downfield occasionally to keep opposing defences from stacking the box against the run.

I think we’ll see Douglas deliver his best performance of the season tonight in New York.

For Jets fans, the hope is that it doesn’t help New England spoil a homecoming from Rodgers that is more than a year in the making.

Have a great day, everyone!