Olney: Blue Jays in 'less-than-ideal' situation with Guerrero Jr. still awaiting extension

With pitchers and catchers officially reporting to Spring Training camp on Thursday for the Toronto Blue Jays, a new MLB season is on the horizon.

While that generally means excitement and positivity for most teams with the slate wiped clean, for Blue Jays management, it probably comes with tension this time around.

That's because they have until Feb. 18 to come to an agreement on a contract extension with Vladimir Guerrero Jr., the most important player to put a Blue Jays uniform in the tenure of team president Mark Shapiro and general manager Ross Atkins.

ESPN Baseball Insider Buster Olney joined First Up on TSN1050 Thursday to discuss the Guerrero extension, where the Blue Jays go with or without him and how competitive the team can expect to be after missing out on another free agent earlier this week.

The clock is ticking on a Guerrero Jr. extension

"[Guerrero is] on record as saying that he needs to have a deal done by Feb. 18, and in one respect, that's good if you're the Blue Jays because it feels like Guerrero Jr. doesn't want to have a situation where he's talking about it every day. The bottom line is it's a less-than-ideal situation when you're talking about 120 hours or so and we're going to know for sure whether the Blue Jays signed him to a long-term deal," Olney said.

Guerrero, 25, is coming off a successful season in which he hit .323, good for second-best in the American League, with 30 home runs and 103 runs batted in. He finished sixth in AL Most Valuable Player voting, was named an All-Star for the fourth consecutive season and earned a Silver Slugger award for AL first basemen. 

Guerrero Jr. joined the Jays organization in 2015 as an international amateur free agent, and his transition from a top young prospect in the organization to an MLB home run champion in 2021 and a four-time All-Star has made keeping him in Toronto perhaps the most important topic for Shapiro and Atkins, who were hired to their roles in 2016.

“We all want Vlad to be here," manager John Schneider said on Thursday. "Ross has said that and I’ve said that. You just keep working towards it and hopefully it happens, but our conversations have really been about this year and how we can get better.”

“We’ve worked extremely hard on keeping Vlad here for a long time. That desire is strong and we will continue to do that,” Atkins added on Thursday. "We will be very respectful of Vlad and his desire to have that. We understand and respect it, but we will never close that door.”

Olney doesn't get the impression it is nearing a positive conclusion, though. "It feels like the two sides haven't really gotten close. Maybe they'll bridge the gap but the perception on Guerrero Jr.'s side of what he might be able to get in the open market and what the Blue Jays are willing to pay him - it just seems enormous, an enormous gap, and I would be surprised if they wind up making a deal," he said.

"You're this close to free agency, he's made a lot of really good money through arbitration, it's not like he necessarily has to commit to a long-term deal now, he might as well play it out."

Blue Jays continue to come up short in courting free agents

Toronto is in need of positive news on the roster side after missing out on another top free agent they were rumoured to be in on. Third baseman Alex Bregman signed with the rival Boston Red Sox on a three-year deal worth $120 million.

"The Blue Jays - as much as they've always been mentioned this winter in talks with [New York Mets slugger Juan] Soto, [Mets first baseman Pete] Alonso, Bregman - I don't know if they were really considered that seriously on the other end," said Olney.

It continues an ongoing theme for the Blue Jays the past couple off-seasons, as they were rumoured to be in on Los Angeles Dodgers superstar Shohei Ohtani until the very end as well.

How competitive will Toronto be this season?

As it stands right now, given the steps taken forward by their division rivals in the off-season, Olney doesn't expect much for the Blue Jays this season.

"I just can't see the Blue Jays contending in this division. It doesn't feel like they're close," Olney said. "If you look at the addition of Anthony Santander, there's no question he could potentially make their lineup better than last year, if Bo Bichette has a big bounce back year that puts him in a different context, but they have to have a thousand things go right and have everybody stay healthy to stay close."

The New York Yankees went to the World Series a year ago and added top pitcher Max fried as well as sluggers Paul Goldschmidt and Cody Bellinger in the off-season. Boston added strong pitchers in Walker Buehler and Garrett Crochet to go with Bregman, while the Baltimore Orioles have a cast of young stars and won 100 games two seasons ago.

The notion of maximizing resources while being realistic about competitive windows weighs heavily on Olney's mind with the Blue Jays.

"The reason why during the winter time I thought they absolutely should've been out talking to other teams about [a trade for] Guerrero Jr. is because if they are unable to sign him by this deadline on the 18th, what they're staring at is a really limited summer trade market if they fall out of the race," said Olney.

"To put that into context, I was thinking about the best comparison for Guerrero Jr. in a midseason trade before free agency, and I think that would be when Manny Machado was traded by the Orioles to the Dodgers in 2019 - think about what the Orioles got back. An outfielder, Yusniel Diaz, pitcher Dean Kremer, reliever Zach Pop and two others. There's not a lot there. So if you're the Blue Jays, you made this decision to plow ahead and keep him into the season and continue to be told that the Blue Jays are not going to trade him, this is what you could end up with for the guy who should be the centrepiece of your franchise," said Olney.

The Blue Jays play their first Spring Training game on Feb. 22, and their regular season opens on Mar. 27 against the Orioles.