Blue Jays primed to compete in 'land of opportunity' in AL East, Olney says

A strong performance in Spring Training has laid the foundation for the Toronto Blue Jays to surprise some people around Major League Baseball.

Toronto claimed the so-called Golden Grapefruit after finishing with the top record (18-10) in Grapefruit League action in Spring Training, and many young players in the lineup had encouraging performances in Dunedin.

ESPN Baseball Insider Buster Olney joined First Up on TSN1050 on Tuesday to discuss whether there is reason to believe the team can leverage that momentum into the regular season, how the rest of the AL East is looking and his picks for division winners this year.

"Of course it matters," Olney said of Spring Training results. "If you had a choice between a young prospect hitting .000 or .800, what, are you kidding? Of course it makes a difference."

The Blue Jays showcased strong numbers up and down the lineup in Spring Training, and the team needs some of those performances to hold over into April and beyond if they're to revive an offence that ranked 23rd in runs scored a season ago.

One way the team had hoped in the off-season to bolster the lineup was the addition of coveted outfielder Juan Soto, who ended up signing a record-breaking deal with the New York Mets.

An extension for Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who is slated to become a free agent at the end of the season, could have also assuaged some concerns for the team and fanbase.

"Given all the frustration of the winter for the Blue Jays, for the fans, the way the Vladimir Guerrero Jr. contract negotiations have played out, the moves that they didn't make in trying for an elite guy in Juan Soto and not getting him," Olney said. "They've had a great spring, and the American League is shaping up to be a land of opportunity when you look at some of the injuries to some of the team the Blue Jays are chasing."

The picture around the American League East

The Tampa Bay Rays recently saw star pitcher Shane McClanahan walk off the mound holding his arm in pain. McClanahan, the two-time All-Star, was set to make his return to the mound after Tommy John surgery robbed him of his 2024 season.

"When I was talking to managers around the league, they talked about the Rays - 'everyone is sleeping on the Rays, the Rays have all these starting pitchers back and they got McClanahan back.' Well he throws a pitch the other day and immediately grabs his left arm, you could tell just absolute discomfort in the triceps area," Olney said. 

"We don't know exactly how long he's going to be out, but this is someone coming off of Tommy John surgery, and to have that sort of issue pop up right at the end of Spring Training, that is devastating. It would be like the Jays losing Kevin Gausman."

Though tests revealed a nerve impingement that will likely not be a long-term issue, the fact is there are injury concerns for every team in the AL East outside of the Blue Jays.

The New York Yankees also will be missing ace Gerrit Cole, who had Tommy John surgery earlier in Spring Training and will miss the entire 2025 campaign, while the Baltimore Orioles will not have top starter Grayson Rodriguez for the beginning of the season as he deals with elbow issues of his own.

"It's not something the Jays are hoping for, but again, everything that went on this spring seemed to play in the Jays' favour," said Olney.

The top competition in the American League

The most dangerous teams in the majors - including the defending-champion Los Angeles Dodgers, who many consider favourites to repeat - play in the National League.

"If you do a power ranking, the top four or five teams are probably all in the National League, the Dodgers, the Phillies, the Braves, the Mets ... it's not until you get to five or six that you put an American League team in there," Olney said.

The Yankees will be missing Cole as well as starters Luis Gil (lat strain) and Clarke Schmidt (shoulder injury), and Olney believes that a dark horse can win the division.

"I've got the [Boston] Red Sox winning the AL East," Olney said. "The addition of Garrett Crochet, I picked him to win the AL Cy Young, Walker Buehler will be a big addition, Alex Bregman I think he's going to have a big year."

Boston has not won the AL East since 2018, when they went on to win the World Series. Only the Blue Jays have gone longer since their last division title (2015).

"In the Central I went with the Kansas City Royals," Olney said. "I'm betting on the Texas Rangers in the AL West, as the division as a whole has taken a big step down. The Houston Astros, some of their players walked away, they're trying to plug and fill but the division should be very competitive."

Opening Day league-wide is set for Thursday, where the Blue Jays will take on the Orioles at home.