Setting The Pick – Raptors and Jazz betting streaks­

Over the first two weeks of 2024, Toronto and Utah have been responsible for some very profitable betting runs.

Whether or not these trends continue depends on the intentions of their respective front offices, with the trade deadline now less than a month away.

This time of year is always tricky, as teams will be making lineup decisions that aren’t always in the interest of winning.

Here’s how the Raptors and Jazz have succeeded of late:

Raptors undefeated against team total

Toronto has a 3-3 record since their blockbuster trade but have gone over their team total in all six games.

Without Pascal Siakam and Jakob Poeltl in the lineup, on the second night of a back-to-back in LA, the Raptors scored over 111 points (their team total line set by FanDuel).

There’s no denying what fans see on the court: this Raptors offence has looked completely re-energized.

Since acquiring RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley, the Raps have averaged 124 points per game, up 10.3 points versus pre-trade production.

Here are some key stats pre- and post-trade:

Pre-trade Raptors:

17^th in offensive rating

18^th-lowest turnover rate

13^th in field-goal percentage (47.5 per cent)

Post-trade Raptors:

4^th in offensive rating

3^rd-lowest turnover rate

2^nd in field-goal percentage (53.5 per cent)

Toronto has gone 5-1 against the spread and 5-1 to the over on their game totals.

Sacramento was the lone game they didn’t cover, and they only missed by half a point.

All of this data suggests the new-look Raptors are performing well above FanDuel’s expectations.

That being said, their lacklustre defence could prevent them from having sustained success. For as good as the offence has been, the defensive numbers have been discouraging.

They have the fifth worst defensive rating post-trade.

Poeltl was already grading poorly as a rim protector, but now with Toronto forced to start Thaddeus Young, their woes on that end will likely exasperate.

Offensively, the loss to the Clippers showed bettors that Toronto can maintain a functional offensive without their leading scorer, Siakam.

The fact that they’ve produced against some top-tier defences should give you confidence about their offensive potential moving forward.

The Play: Raptors over team totals and game totals

Call off the tank in Utah?

Jazz CEO of basketball operations, Danny Ainge, made two big splashes in 2022-23 trying to setup a full-fledged rebuild.

Cornerstones Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell were traded away with the intention of building a championship squad in the second half of the decade.

Instead, the new-look Jazz overachieved last season.  They had a record around .500 heading into the trade deadline, despite pre-season expectations that they would be a bottom-three team with a shot at the 1^st overall pick.  They were supposed to be in contention to draft generational talent, Victor Wembanyama.

Ainge continued to sell off players for picks last deadline and the team ultimately finished eight games below .500.

This season, it feels like déjà vu for Utah.

At the conclusion of the In-Season Tournament, the Jazz held a 7-15 record with their in-season win total down to 30.5 after opening at 36.5 on FanDuel.

Not long after that, the coaching staff made some drastic changes to their rotation, scratching starter Talen Horton-Tucker and sliding veterans Collin Sexton and Kris Dunn into the starting five.

Since the THT benching, Utah has gone 9-2 and they’ve beaten some championship contenders in Denver, Milwaukee and Philadelphia.  

During this 11-game stretch, Utah had the 5^th-best net rating and beat the spread by an average of 11.8 points per game.

They won seven games over this period as underdogs.

If you bet $10 on them every single game over this streak, you would have earned a $118.60 profit on $110 invested.

So, are the Jazz cancelling the rebuild or are they repeating last season’s trade deadline formula?

My guess is that they’re ready to trade for a superstar if a deal is on the table, but unlikely to intentionally lose games for draft positioning.

The talent pool for the draft is significantly weaker than last season, and there are too many bottom-feeding teams ahead of them in line.

What’s the best way to capitalize on their success then?

They have been particularly strong in the fourth quarter during this run.

Utah has a plus-82 net rating overall but are plus-69 in the final quarter.

Jordan Clarkson and Lauri Markkanen have a combined 57.7 field-goal percentage (45-of-78) in the fourth and they both play significantly more minutes on average than the other three quarters. 

While the sample size may feel small, it carries some weight because they’ve had success against some very legitimate opponents.

The Play: Jazz in-game spread for fourth-quarters