Discipline is key for Golden Knights against Oilers

The Vegas Golden Knights committed an NHL cardinal sin in Game 2 of their second-round series: They kept putting the Edmonton Oilers on the power play.

I need not spend time writing about how overwhelming and overpowering the Oilers’ man advantage is. Keyed by Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, the Oilers put together a power play during the regular season that scored a staggering 13.3 goals per 60 minutes played.

Consider that number in light of these two data points:

The second-best power play was in Los Angeles. The Kings scored 9.8 goals per 60 minutes, about 25 per cent less efficient than that of Edmonton’s.
The best conversion rate we have seen on the power play in the statistical modern era (2007-23) came from the 2019-20 Tampa Bay Lightning, who scored 11.5 goals per 60 minutes played.

The Oilers generate heaps of scoring chances from the most dangerous areas of the ice. And in the off chance they do not convert, they seamlessly regain the offensive zone and start the cycle once more.

Their shot profile, courtesy HockeyViz, is absolutely harrowing for opposing goaltenders:

Edmonton is a deeper and talented team than in years past, but they are still beatable. We saw some of the warts the Oilers lineup has to offer in Game 1, melting against a hyperaggressive Vegas Golden Knights forecheck.

Game 2 was very different. Edmonton delivered a four-goal beatdown of Vegas at T-Mobile Arena, owing in part to a swath of penalties drawn by Oilers attackers. The Golden Knights were unable to deal with Edmonton’s speed this time around, continued committing infractions, and the Oilers made them pay over and over again. The game was over in the first period.

It’s one thing to tell a team to be disciplined. But discipline moves in lockstep with structure, and the Oilers attackers are as good as any team in the league at disrupting opposition structure. But much like Game 1 offered the recipe for how Vegas can advance to the Western Conference Final, Game 2 offered the path for Edmonton. And it’s a path we well understand.

Let’s look at the Oilers regular season and their eight playoff games to date for an example. If we look at how the Oilers performed in games by the number of power-play opportunities they were afforded, we see lethal correlation with broader team success.

It’s not surprising to see a team with more relative success when spending a bunch of minutes on the power play, but it is to see just how sharp and how meaningful it is for the Oilers. In games where Edmonton carried a meaningful penalty disadvantage, they were a very ordinary hockey team. In games where they were penalty neutral or had more opportunities than their counterpart, their margin of victory rapidly accelerated.

Let’s bring this back to the first two games of the series. In Game 1, Vegas carried a +1 penalty differential and won in a 6-4 shootout. In Game 2, Vegas was tremendously undisciplined, affording the Oilers six power-play opportunities and earning just three of their own (-3). Edmonton’s power play scored at will, Vegas’ did not, and the end result was a blowout and a tied series.

Edmonton draws a lot of penalties because their pace of play routinely puts opponents in difficult situations. But that’s why playing with the puck – and playing with an aggressive forecheck – is so key for Vegas in this series. If the Oilers can continue dictating play, they will continue forcing Vegas into taking penalties.

If that’s the case, we can fast forward through the rest of this series. Because no one is stopping this Edmonton power play. Not anytime soon, anyway.

Data via Natural Stat Trick, NHL.com, Evolving Hockey, HockeyViz