Golden Knights present serious challenge for Oilers

The Edmonton Oilers can win the Stanley Cup but their greatest challenge in the Western Conference is at their doorstep.

I have been financially interested in Edmonton’s outlook most of this season, a believer in both their overwhelming star power at the top of the lineup, and, just as importantly, the poor breadth of talent in the Western Conference.

Talent imbalances across conferences are cyclical. Most of the NHL’s top-end teams currently reside out East, and the handful of teams you would normally be scared of in the West – ahem, Colorado – were ripe for first-round upsets. Edmonton spent many years getting crushed by dynasties in Los Angeles and Chicago, so they’re not going to complain about a slightly easier path this time around.

Vegas is beatable. The team has struggled to score in past postseasons, and their goaltending situation can generously be described as one step above dire. But the Golden Knights are a bigger challenge than the Los Angeles Kings, and likely most other teams, on two key points: They have both tremendous depth and the requisite top-end skill to cause problems for the Oilers.

The Oilers differentiated themselves this season through one of the deadliest power plays in recent history, scoring a staggering 13.2 goals per 60 minutes played – about 40 per cent more productive than the league’s next best unit, which is hard to fathom.

Consequently, when you look at all situations data, the Oilers look materially better than both the Golden Knights and Kings.

That gap is much less obvious when looking purely at even strength. In fact, the Golden Knights carried a better goal differential there over the course of the season, though expected goal rates skewed in favour of the Oilers. But it’s clear the Kings are laggards on both fronts.

So, we can reasonably conclude the Golden Knights are a tougher opponent. But from a matchup perspective, what is it about Vegas that can give Edmonton problems? The answer is in the form of their three-headed monster: Mark Stone, Chandler Stephenson, and Shea Theodore.

Two forwards and a defenceman? What gives? What gives is that when Vegas has this triumvirate on the ice, they dominate games in a fashion similar to what Edmonton sees when Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are tearing up the ice.

What Vegas may lack in the sheer firepower Edmonton possesses they make up for with incredible chemistry and complimentary skill sets.

Stone, when healthy, is arguably the best two-way forward you’ll find in the league. His one limitation is he isn’t the best skater. Who is? Fellow winger Stephenson, a freakishly agile attacker who creates havoc from the wing. And both benefit immensely from a puck-mover and offensive igniter in the form of Theodore – a dynamic skater with the puck, and the type of defenceman who persistently drives play into the offensive zone.

Compare the performance of these three skaters together to that of McDavid, Draisaitl, and Edmonton defenceman Darnell Nurse when they play together. Oilers fans know well this trio has historically bulldozed competition, which further emphasizes how scary this Vegas group can be:

The core limitation on the Vegas end has really been health – Stone has been battling injuries (most recently, back) for the past couple of years, and so consistency across the Golden Knights lines has been hard to come by.

But this group was together for their first-round affair with Winnipeg (the third forward was frequently Brett Howden), and the results speak for themselves:

Edmonton can win this series, and perhaps should – betting markets have the Oilers at about 60 per cent implied odds to advance, a significant number considering they are the road team in this series.

But the Oilers should be prepared for a serious fight. Vegas is a materially better team than Los Angeles, and have a top unit that can give the Oilers real issues in a way the Kings simply could not.

Data via Natural Stat Trick, NHl.com, Evolving Hockey, Hockey Reference