Improved defensive play helps Habs to strong start

Earlier in the week, I asked hockey fans what they believed was the biggest surprise over the first month of the NHL regular season. Not surprisingly, it was the futility of the Alberta teams – through Thursday, a combined 4-12-2 (46-point pace) and with a -26 goal differential – taking first place.

While the porous hockey from Edmonton and Calgary has drawn considerable attention, I think it’s taken away from some early-season upside surprises. Consider three accomplishments from expected bottom-feeders over the first month of hockey:

•  The Arizona Coyotes are playing at an 82-point pace on a +6 goal differential. That goal differential is good enough for ninth in the NHL!
• The Anaheim Ducks have been the beneficiary of the Alberta struggles, playing at a 98-point pace and carrying a +3 goal differential. This is a team that was priced as a 12-to-1 underdog in the preseason to qualify for the postseason.
• Speaking of big underdogs, the Montreal Canadiens – priced at nearly 11-to-1 to qualify for the postseason – have raced out to a 5-2-2 record in a competitive Atlantic Division, ahead of both the Tampa Bay Lightning and Toronto Maple Leafs.

Now, we know enough about these lineups – all three are in varying phases of deep rebuilds – to still be reasonably bearish about what the rest of the season looks like. But I wanted to look a bit deeper at a Canadiens team that has made a considerable year-over-year leap, and whether or not it can sustain a competitive level of hockey through the course of the year.

First, I think it’s important to frame where Montreal is coming from. The Canadiens have been in the deepest (and darkest) of rebuilds over the past two years, gutting their roster and getting waxed on a nightly basis.

This season, there’s been a sharp shift. And even though we are talking about just nine games of hockey, it’s important to recognize this level of outperformance has been a rare occurrence – particularly when looking at even-strength play:

One of the core reasons Montreal has been competitive at even strength is that the goaltenders have been sound, but they are getting tremendous help from the defensive structure in front.

This is a team conceding just 1.15 goals per 60 minutes of play in those nine games, comfortably best in the NHL. And while you should give the platoon of Jake Allen (.930 stop rate) and Sam Montembeault (.905 stop rate) some credit, they are certainly benefiting from improved defensive play (via HockeyViz):

If you are head coach Martin St. Louis, this is the sort of stuff that gets you excited. It’s one thing to fluke your way into a hot shooting month, or to have a goaltender stand on his head for a few weeks at a clip. It’s another when you are seeing pressure rates offensively increase in a meaningful way, or in the case of Montreal, defensive pressure rates reducing on a considerable basis.

What’s also notable is that much of Montreal’s realized goodness at even strength, skewing to mostly their ability to limit pressure and reduce goals against, is coming from a once-battered blueline that appears to have turned a corner. Newer faces like Justin Barron and Arber Xhekaj have been quite good in their minutes, and notably outperforming veterans like Mike Matheson (albeit in more difficult minutes):

All this to say: this Canadiens roster is still thin on talent, but from the first month of play, you are starting to see a team find itself. Once a bona fide also-ran, the Habs are starting to play more competitive hockey. The team likely isn’t playoff-calibre yet, but it’s the exact sign you are looking for as a team comes out of a rebuild.

Sprinkle some defensive goodness around scorers like Cole Caufield (10 points), Sean Monahan (eight points), and Nick Suzuki (eight points) up front, and you have the makeup of a team that may annoy Eastern Conference contenders for the rest of the year.

Data via Natural Stat Trick, NHL.com, Evolving Hockey, HockeyViz