McCabe could be the quiet prize of NHL trade deadline

If you have been paying attention to NHL trade speculation, you know that much of the focus on the blueline has concerned a trio of names.

Arizona’s Jakob Chychrun has been the most alluring, in large part because of his contract. Columbus’ early-season flameout meant a lot of rumors concerning the availability of Vladislav Gavrikov. And then, of course, there’s the San Jose Sharks and Erik Karlsson. They are three very different players in three very different circumstances.

Teams in the market for defenders are continuously evaluating the acquisition cost as the March 3 deadline approaches. But most importantly, they will evaluate fit. If you are a buyer at the deadline, you know you are going to pay a premium to acquire a player. What ultimately matters is if the core capabilities of the lineup improves after the trade.

That’s why I want to shift focus a  to a defender who isn’t getting nearly as much attention, but is a player who  can move the needle for a team in need. That’s 29-year-old middle-pairing defenceman Jake McCabe in Chicago. McCabe has made a career out of playing for truly terrible teams, but therein lies the beauty of McCabe as an acquisition target: we have yet to see him play within a competitive lineup but he’s still been able to produce at a high level.

It's easy to find players who underperform on bad teams; it’s much more difficult to tease out players who are creating value despite everything around them breaking down. To find these “diamond in the rough” type of players, one bar they must clear is sustained outperformance – that is, the performance of their team is materially better with them on the ice than without.

Consider the below plot, which shows how the Buffalo Sabres and Chicago Blackhawks (by year) played both with and without McCabe on the ice.

Let’s start with real goal scoring at even strength:

Goal differentials can be volatile in any given season, which is why it’s so encouraging to see such a long-term trend – McCabe has logged nearly 500 games over the past eight seasons – that’s favourable to McCabe. Over this period, the Sabres and Blackhawks were 10 per cent more effective on the attack and 8 per cent more effective at suppressing goals against with McCabe on the ice. And consider who McCabe was playing with over these years:

- In Buffalo, his most common partners included Zach Bogosian, Rasmus Ristolainen, and Cody Franson

- In Chicago, his most common partners have been Seth Jones and Connor Murphy

I think it’s fair to say that, perhaps absent Jones, McCabe hasn’t had very much to work with in the first half of his career. He’s generally been stuck on second pairings with middle-six forwards in front, which on a bad team can be the perfect recipe to sink a player’s goal differential. But that’s not the case.

Let’s look at expected goals now, an important step to neutralize the effects of goaltender performance (in both directions) on a player’s goal differentials:

McCabe’s career expected goal rates are in line with his real goal differentials. What’s clear here is Buffalo and Chicago  were territorially more dangerous with McCabe on the ice, driving more play into the offensive zone and dealing with fewer high-pressure shifts in the defensive third.

What’s fascinating about McCabe – whether you are watching video or looking at this data – is that prior to this season, most of what distinguished himself as a player was his ability to suppress activity in front of the goaltender, limiting teams to one-and-done attacking sequences and protecting the interior. But McCabe is seeing real outperformance in the offensive zone this season, perhaps owing to playing with the very few Blackhawks forwards (e.g. Patrick Kane, Max Domi) who can threaten a defence.

At any rate, McCabe has the statistical profile of a player who could see a big step up in performance if surrounded by better linemates on a quality team. He’s always beaten expectations, even if those expectations have been perpetually low.

And as a physical blueliner on a very friendly contract, I suspect a handful of savvy teams to bid on him aggressively over the next few days. There are ways to improve your team without sacrificing your future until the end of time, and McCabe offers just that for the playoff-contending crowd.

Data via Natural Stat Trick, Evolving Hockey, NHL.com, Hockey Reference