Morrissey having a Norris-calibre season for Jets

If the Winnipeg Jets were going to return to the Stanley Cup Playoffs this year, they needed two things to break in their favour.

One, they needed Connor Hellebuyck to be a Vezina-calibre goaltender from wire to wire – last year was the first time Hellebuyck looked human, erasing Winnipeg’s competitive advantage in net. Two, the Jets needed their core players to elevate their game.

Winnipeg’s lineup is, to some degree, what Edmonton’s lineup has looked like in years past. The top-end talent is extraordinary: Kyle Connor, Pierre-Luc Dubois, Mark Scheifele, and Nikolaj Ehlers (injured) provide impressive firepower in the forward ranks, and on most nights, the aforementioned Hellebuyck should outplay whoever takes the opposition net.

But top-heavy teams can struggle the moment their big guns slow down, and that’s something we’ve seen far too frequently from Winnipeg in recent seasons. They don’t dominate possession, they aren’t defensively structured to choke games when they have leads, and they can be turnover-prone against pressure. If their best players aren’t going, Winnipeg’s usually having a bad time.

But Winnipeg’s best players are humming so far this season, none more effectively than defenceman Josh Morrissey, who currently leads the team in scoring. The 27-year-old has been a reliable defenceman – in many instances, the only reliable defenceman –  in Winnipeg for years now. But the daylight between a quality first-pairing defender and someone who is taking over games can be significant, and the hallmark of an elite anchor on a team’s top-pair tends to be dominating on-ice results.

Morrissey’s numbers have been good, but until this year, we haven’t seen Winnipeg smoke teams with him on the ice. Emphasis on until this year. Look at Winnipeg’s goal differentials and expected goal differentials with Morrissey on the ice, focusing on even strength. As you would expect, Winnipeg’s outplayed their opponents whenever they have Morrissey (and generally, one of the team’s top two lines) on the ice. But this year, playing mostly with Neal Pionk and Dylan DeMelo, it’s transitioned from quality play to dominance:

Winnipeg is shooting a blistering 12.5 per cent with Morrissey on the ice, hence the big surge in goal-scoring production this season. It’s been one of the impetuses behind Winnipeg carrying a staggering +20 goal differential (+38 goals for; -18 goals against) with him deployed this season, the single best number in the league.

Now, an obvious qualifier: Winnipeg historically shoots around 9 per cent with Morrissey on the ice, a tick above league average at even strength, and that’s likely where the on-ice shooting percentage will regress towards over time. But absent the brief surge in shooting percentages, I think there’s adequate evidence that Morrissey and his teammates are merely dictating control of games in ways they haven’t in years past.

Case in point: on an expected goal basis, which (among other things) desensitizes the effect goaltenders can have on player production, the Jets are still outscoring their opponents with Morrissey on the ice. In three of the past four seasons, that hasn’t been the case.

It’s not lost on me that part of the reason why the Jets look better with Morrissey out there is because they are better in transition, and better sustaining the attack in the offensive third. I attribute some of that to not just Morrissey’s well-rounded style of play, but also that to Winnipeg having two other adequate puck movers in Pionk and DeMelo on Morrissey’s hip.

Speaking of puck-moving and transitional play, one of the areas where Morrissey has really shown himself this season is on the power play. The Jets have a middle-of-the-road (7.7 goals per-60; 18th in NHL) power play, but it’s quite dependent on whether their first unit or second unit is deployed. If Morrissey and the top unit are out there, scoring is significantly up, and Morrissey’s 11 points on the power play are second to just Connor (12) on the year.

Notably, this power play is fantastic at funneling pucks from the top of the blueline into the interior of the offensive zone, where goal scoring probabilities surge (via HockeyViz):

San Jose’s Erik Karlsson is going to draw Norris Trophy consideration for his freakish individual scoring (39 points), and Rasmus Dahlin, just 22, will garner respect for both his individual production as well as Buffalo’s dominance (+16 goal differential) with him on the ice. Both are exceptional candidates.

I’ll throw Morrissey’s name into the mix as well. Because at the end of the day, this is a results-oriented business, and Winnipeg is getting silly production from Morrissey this season.

Data via Natural Stat Trick, NHL.com, Evolving Hockey, Hockey Reference