Panthers can’t count on power plays to get back into Cup Final

Eighteen seconds.

That’s all of the power-play time the Florida Panthers had in Game 4 of the Stanley Cup Final, and it came in the waning moments after Vegas Golden Knights defenceman Alex Pietrangelo put the puck over the glass.

Said another way: Vegas made it an entire game without incurring any sort of stick infraction or penalty of physicality.

But this isn’t merely a Vegas story. The Panthers, a notoriously undisciplined and physical team that racked up penalty minutes all regular season, also took just one penalty – a tripping minor against defenceman Marc Staal in the second period.

One game with two physical teams, one power play apiece, followed by a post-game melee.

It goes without saying there were any number of uncalled penalties, as is always the case in an NHL game. The part I became curious about though was the context of it being in the Stanley Cup Final. We well understand officials manage games, working to allocate a reasonably equitable number of power plays to each team, justified or not. We also know that certain penalties are less likely to be called in the postseason.

But here is something I found interesting: As a series progresses, officials are increasingly less likely to call penalties. It’s a very discernible pattern that accelerates during the Stanley Cup Final:

The later a series goes in the playoffs, the more minutes you are likely to see played at even strength. That is a tried and tested rule. What’s particularly interesting here is this data set includes coincidental or off-setting minors, a common tool for officials to take players off the ice for a period of time without either team receiving a power play.

But even with that tool available to them, penalties sharply decline, and that trend is even more noticeable in the championship series. In both groups, penalty calls peak early in the series (around Game 2), and incrementally tail off as the series evolves.

That said, a game like Florida and Vegas’ – even with a sharp downward trend in the rate of penalty calls over time – is rather rare for the Stanley Cup Final.

That said, an outcome like we saw in Game 4 between the Panthers and Golden Knights is rather rare for the Stanley Cup Final – even with a sharp downward trend in the rate of penalty calls over time.

If there is a mandate to “let them play,” it is superseded by the game management mandate. Thirty-three per cent of games played during the Stanley Cup Final will see somewhere between six or seven penalties called, and with a very high degree of frequency, each side is called for about three: 

It stands to reason if you have relatively muted penalty calls (certainly so as a series progresses), and that penalties are afforded equitably, teams built on dominant even-strength play tend to benefit. That brings me full circle to the Golden Knights – an imperfect lineup, but one that can buzzsaw opponents at even strength.

Therein lies the challenge for the Panthers, now staring down the barrel of elimination. Vegas is already carrying a +5 goal advantage at even strength from the first four games, and, if history is any indication, the power plays that Florida may need to work their way back into the series may be hard to come by.

Data via Natural Stat Trick, NHL.com, Evolving Hockey, Hockey Reference