Meier presents a rare opportunity this trade deadline
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Considering where the San Jose Sharks are in their rebuild and the reality of Timo Meier’s looming contract extension, it’s anticipated the star Swiss forward will be moved at the trade deadline. Without question, Meier is one of the most fascinating hired-gun type of trade targets in recent memory.
What makes Meier so alluring? It’s equal parts a high level of production in his peak playing years and a very comfortable expiring cap hit of just $6 million. Meier’s scoring has been first-line calibre for years and he will command a significant extension this off-season. That keeps the door open for both types of potential suitors: teams with limited long-term cap space who can squeeze Meier’s current contract onto the books in a Stanley Cup chase, and those who see Meier improving their team this season and beyond.
Meier’s consistent production – with good teams and poor teams alike – must be incredibly attractive to bidding teams. In the same vein as the argument that I made this past off-season with then-free agent Darcy Kuemper, teams value reliability and predictable play. Meier is the forward version of that, with slumps being nearly impossible to find. And in the viper pit known as the NHL trade deadline, where sellers routinely price gouge buyers over middling players, Meier offers a rare opportunity to acquire an immediate game changer:
What’s remarkable about Meier’s production is that he has been able to avoid scoring slumps of any consequence over the past six years, routinely outperforming the league average forward by considerable margins. He’s certainly a bit more of a goal scorer than a playmaker – he out produces the league average forward there by a factor of two, and is 28th in scoring over this six-year period. The players he’s sandwiched between: Columbus’ Johnny Gaudreau, and Nashville’s Filip Forsberg.
Meier has taken on more of a lead role in San Jose in recent years as the talent has weakened around him – his most common linemates over the past few seasons include Tomas Hertl and Logan Couture up top, with a rotating cast of defenders headlined by Erik Karlsson and Mario Ferraro.
What I particularly love about Meier is that, from time to time, you see certain types of goal scorers struggle to drive play – they’re lethal shooters of the puck, but may be reliant on others to help in the defensive zone or in the transition game for setup purposes. That’s not the case with Meier. Not only is Meier the type of player who turns meaningful scoring chances into goals, he’s also the type of player who is creating high volumes of scoring chances for himself and his linemates.
Despite San Jose’s weakening in the standings in recent years, the Sharks have still otherwise dominated teams with Meier on the ice. In fact, over a meaningful sample of games, Meier’s never been territorially outplayed:
Just look how extraordinary it has been this season on a team that’s currently sitting 28th in the league standings. HockeyViz’s shot profiles of San Jose’s performance with Meier on the ice is precisely what you want to see from an elite player: persistent and unrelenting attacking from the interior in the offensive zone, and defensive goodness inside of the low-slot area, forcing shooters to the outside with a higher degree of frequency:
In summary: Meier checks every box for a contender. The material questions facing the acquisition of Meier are then twofold: What is the haul of assets a team is willing to part with to bring a star into the lineup, and is Meier coming in as a hired gun or as a player that’s part of a team’s long-term future?
One question they won’t have to ask is if Meier is the real deal. He is, full stop.
Data via HockeyViz, NHL.com, Natural Stat Trick, Evolving Hockey, Hockey Reference