Three reasons Team USA is in the driver’s seat at 4 Nations
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Team USA is officially in the driver’s seat at the 4 Nations Face-Off. But before breaking down what’s given America the early advantage in the tournament, let’s talk about the event itself.
It has been absolutely incredible. Full stop. You must give credit to the players, who have put considerable effort into winning, treating each round-robin matchup like a Game 7 in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Combine effort —always the lead indicator as to whether you’re going to watch a compelling sporting event versus a glorified training event — with overwhelming skill and parity across the four countries, and you have the recipe for a brilliantly captivating sporting event.
I never want to see another NHL All-Star Game again. And I don’t mind if the interval of these games can’t be every single year. Figure out a way to preserve this, because for the first time in a while, hockey’s brain trust has found something that works. And because it works, I get to discuss these games in a meaningful way.
As TSN.ca’s resident Yankee, I want to talk about this American team, which has clinched a spot in Thursday’s final after outscoring Finland and Canada at an aggregate score of 9-2 (+7). How are they winning these games? I’ve got three key reasons as we head into Monday’s slate:
1. The goaltending advantage
Some pieces I write are timed better than others.
Last week, we discussed the brilliance of Winnipeg Jets (and starting American) goaltender Connor Hellebuyck, who seems primed to win his third Vezina Trophy in six years. I believe he has a real shot at the Hart Trophy, too.
There are many quality puck-stoppers in today’s NHL, but no goalie can erase goals off the scoreboard as persistently and reliably as Hellebuyck. The only knock left on a goaltender who is already on the short list of best goalies of this millennium is he hasn’t always done it in the high-leverage moments; his postseason numbers for the Jets haven’t always sparkled.
These high-energy best-on-best games against the world’s best shooters have brought a tall order for Hellebuyck and every other goalie who has played so far. These are extremely small samples, but they reinforce a key point as to why the U.S. was favoured going into the tournament — there’s Hellebuyck, and then there is everyone else:
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Save percentage measures much more than goaltending contribution (to some degree it is a function of the defensive play and structure in front), but this is a considerable gap. Sweden and Finland have conceded goals left and right; Canada’s stop rates are still short of the NHL league average.
You do wonder if Canada is kicking themselves a bit over their goaltending selections. Jordan Binnington. Adin Hill, and Sam Montembeault are strong players, but it feels like they pale demonstrably to the likes of Hellebuyck. Would Logan Thompson or Darcy Kuemper have leveled the playing field in net? A question to ponder, especially after a game where Canada’s elite forwards struggled to break through against Hellebuyck.
2. Jake Guentzel - Auston Matthews - Jack Hughes
I think it’s safe to say this has been the most dominant line of the tournament so far. Whenever you can unite three skaters who have eclipsed the single-season 40-goal mark nine times in their young careers, you are dealing with tremendous offensive firepower.
And while Canada may be armed with the best forward group in this tournament, the States are not far behind. They outshot Finland in their opener 18-7 (+11, even strength) as a trio, with one of those shots leading to a Jake Guentzel goal. They followed it up by outclassing Canada’s elite forwards, with two more goals from the stick of Guentzel (one the empty netter to ice the game):
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You never know what the chemistry of a line will look like, even when uniting elite players like this. Matthews and Hughes are such dangerous scorers and playmakers in their own right; their magnetic effect to the puck alone creates more opportunities for a Swiss Army knife like Guentzel, and they keep taking advantage of it.
The U.S. had less of the puck as a team than they probably would like against Canada, but this line was in full control.
3. The Zach Werenski effect
If Hellebuyck and Guentzel have been the two biggest contributors so far, Columbus Blue Jackets defenceman Zach Werenski must be third on that list. And that might be selling him short.
Werenski, in the midst of a Norris Trophy-calibre season, has been one-half of America’s best defensive pairing with Charlie McAvoy.
Absent one supernova Connor McDavid moment (torching McAvoy in the process), they have been lights out as a tandem – the States outshot Finland and Canada by a combined 43-to-21 (+22) with Werenski and McAvoy deployed, minutes ripe with scoring chances and some very physical hockey.
Running this degree of advantage play against formidable opponents, in predominantly leading minutes where score effects always have an adverse effect, is remarkable. But uniting two of the most well-polished two-way defensive players — just as capable as defending off puck as they are igniting an attack from the defensive third – has produced great results for head coach Mike Sullivan.
These are three of the biggest reasons America’s in the driver’s seat, for now.
But count out Canada, Sweden, or Finland at your own peril as this tournament shifts to the city of Boston. The overall talent disparity between these countries remains razor thin, and whichever team draws the States on Thursday night will have a real shot to win it all.
And seriously: rest in peace, NHL All-Star Weekend.
Data via NHL.com, Evolving Hockey, Hockey Reference, Natural Stat Trick