Leafs getting real value from Liljegren and Sandin

When we did our Talent Tiers at the positional level in August, I caught some flak for grading the Toronto Maple Leafs blueline favourably. Yes, it’s true that Toronto’s teams of yesteryear were defensively weak and rarely had the goaltending to erase the mistakes they made.

But that’s changed, particularly under general manager Kyle Dubas’ watch. Toronto’s lineup isn’t perfect – they are still reliant on their top six forwards to outperform by considerable margins, and the goaltending (which has held up impressively well in the first half of the season) is going to be scrutinized until Matt Murray and Ilya Samsonov show they can perform when it matters most.

The skill improvement on the blueline is palpable, though, and part of the reason I was bullish about this group was the fact that younger players who came through the Toronto Marlies ranks had generally performed well when given an NHL opportunity. Timothy Liljegren and Rasmus Sandin are two of those players who have shown themselves as surefire NHL talent.

Head coach Sheldon Keefe has been tinkering with both of these defencemen since they entered the league, and as a pairing they can take control of games against weaker competition. As second- or third-pairing options, they grade on the high end when it comes to mobility and puck-moving capabilities, allowing the Maple Leafs to quickly transition out of defensive zones and get out on the attack.

They aren’t the biggest pairing and can be beaten on the inside against physical and skilled forwards found on first or second lines, but by and large they are winning their shifts.

How much are they winning? Consider what the Maple Leafs have yielded from this pairing in the 277 minutes they have played together at even strength this season. Across the board, they are outshooting, outchancing, and outscoring their opponents – so much so, when you compare them to other common pairings in Toronto (Justin Holl and Mark Giordano; T.J. Brodie and Morgan Rielly), they still look dominant.

Context about pairing performance is key – it’s not just the skill of players you are facing, it’s also the type of zone starts you are getting, the quality of teammates you are playing with, the calibre of goaltending you are receiving behind you, and so on.

In the case of Liljegren and Sandin, they have benefited from quality goaltending – Maple Leafs goaltenders are stopping 93.2 per cent of shots with them on the ice, which does help lift goal differential to some degree.

But take note of their expected goal differentials, which are still positive and in line with the Giordano pairing. That’s compelling evidence that, despite the effective goaltending, they are still carrying play in a favourable way and creating positive scoring chance differentials for Toronto when deployed.

What’s also interesting about this tandem is the players are individually driving performance in different ways. Whereas Toronto’s numbers are benefiting from Liljegren’s on-ice presence on the defensive end, Sandin is driving performance on the attack.

When combined, particularly when facing weaker opponents, that’s the type of marriage that can create a dominant depth pairing (via HockeyViz):

This is the power of a strong developmental program coming full circle. The Maple Leafs were able to develop both players through the Marlies ranks and assemble them as a high-quality depth pairing that can create opportunities even when Toronto’s best forwards are off the ice. And because they were brought up through the ranks, their impact on the salary cap is quite muted. The pairing is just $2.8-million in cap liabilities this season and next.

That’s the type of advantage – and the type of differentiator – that can lead a team into the second round and beyond come playoff time.

But we will have to wait and see on that.     

Data via Natural Stat Trick, NHL.com, Evolving Hockey, Hockey Reference