Maple Leafs take massive gamble with Murray trade

To say the Toronto Maple Leafs are taking a risk in net after the acquisition of Matt Murray would be an understatement. Challenged by underperformance and durability, Murray’s two seasons with Ottawa were, in a word, grim.

That’s not to say Murray is incapable of producing – we’ve seen him post fantastic seasons behind better hockey teams, notably in 2016-17 (92.3 per cent stop rate) and 2018-19 (91.9 per cent stop rate) with the Pittsburgh Penguins. But those seasons seem like eons ago. And for a Maple Leafs team that has been a bit desperate to address a need in net, Murray doesn’t seem like the type of player to get this team over the proverbial hump.

There are a few pertinent details beyond Murray the player. For starters, a flat cap and changing economic landscape has dried the goaltender market out. Look around at who is available, and the options are thin.

Darcy Kuemper and Jack Campbell are probably two of the most notable names. Kuemper’s rumoured price is a bit too much considering Toronto’s current cap situation, and the team appears prepared to move on from Campbell, a player who may also be a bit too expensive and who did himself and the organization few favours with an ugly postseason performance.

Toronto was able to grab Murray, a goaltender the front office is familiar with at a cheap cost. Ottawa not only retained salary, but also gave the Maple Leafs a pair of draft picks to take on the final two seasons of his contract. On paper, the deal is as low risk as it gets for Toronto – there’s hardly any serious investment in Murray, and if he bombs out, it’s not something that will hang over the organization long-term.

But that also discounts, perhaps significantly so, where the Maple Leafs are right now. This team has shown, repeatedly, it can score with the best of the best. But when the team needed saves in the postseason, Campbell couldn’t thwart Lightning attackers. Can Murray be the guy?

Setting aside durability concerns with Murray, I think there’s a belief – there must be, to some degree – that playing behind a better team will yield better results. It remains to be seen if that’s the case. But I do think there are serious questions Murray can be that goaltender.

If we take into consideration both the shot volumes Murray faced and the quality of those shots (we will use Goals Saved Above Expectations here) compared to Campbell, it’s hard to see the trade as anything other than a likely downgrade in net. Murray’s performances were weaker when adjusting for shot volumes and quality over the past three seasons:

Murray was a well below-average goaltender over the past three seasons, while Campbell was closer to league average. Murray was also much more likely to lose games for his team, whereas Campbell had plenty of performances where he stole the show.

Consider both in contrast to a goaltender like Kuemper, who clearly has a better track record and will command more money when free agency opens. Kuemper is following up a shaky postseason in his own right, but we should have much more confidence in his ability to deliver next season than Campbell, and in Campbell more than Murray.

Perhaps Murray can set aside the injury history, and perhaps behind a better skater group he can inch closer to what he was during his Pittsburgh years. But if you were wagering on the direction of Toronto’s goaltending situation year-over-year, smart money would be on it heading south.

That may mean very little in a regular season where the Maple Leafs, still possessing one of the deadliest skating lineups in the league, can blow teams most off the ice. But against tougher competition, goaltending is always a consequential factor.

That’s not something I need remind Maple Leafs fans. But it underscores how intriguing this bet is by Kyle Dubas and the rest of the Toronto front office.

Data via Natural Stat Trick, Evolving Hockey, Hockey Reference, NHL.com