Nothing is worse than betting regret. Sure, live betting exists. But an opportunity for great value or banking easy money at a digestible price can evaporate very quickly once the game starts.

This week, no more missing out. We are fastening ourselves to consistency and profiting off a few woebegone franchises.

Calgary Flames at Seattle Kraken
Saturday, April 9 – 7:00 PM ET 
The Seattle Kraken have had an ugly inaugural season. In fairness, the original strategy for a winning team made sense: overcome possible scoring struggles with disciplined play and stingy team defence. Unfortunately, goaltending is a critical part of the team-defence equation, and Seattle’s duo has failed them.
But the Kraken have been feisty lately. Since March 1st, they are top-ten in shots percentage and are winning the shot attempts battle. They are 7-8-1 over that span and can boast victories against playoff caliber teams like the Dallas Stars, Los Angeles Kings and Nashville Predators. In their win on Thursday, Seattle outshot the Chicago Blackhawks 17-3 at 5-on-5 in the first period with the Blackhawks wilting against Seattle’s strong puck support and aggressive defencemen. Sadly, the Kraken’s opponent on Saturday packs a much harder punch.

I consider their game with the Calgary Flames appointment viewing because of the Johnny Gaudreau line. Watching the Gaudreau trio dominate game in and game out boggles my mind, and their numbers highlight how special they are. At 5-on-5, they have a +37 (!) goal differential. They have generated 85 more high-danger chances than their opponents. But the thing that is most remarkable is the versatility of their attack.

On the rush or cycle, they are deadly. But what allows them to be virtually unstoppable is their change of speeds and layering. Gaudreau loves to fly the zone and try to beat the weak-side defender to the perimeter. But he is also a magician at delaying on the entry so that Calgary can attack off the rush in layers. 

And it’s not just their transition that comes in waves. Even behind the net, an area where they dismantle teams, the Flames destabilize opponents with their layers of forwards in the slot. 

Against Anaheim on Wednesday night, Gaudreau was set up behind the net and Matthew Tkachuk was perched on the near post just outside the paint. When Gaudreau looked toward Tkachuk, he froze the Ducks’ defence, allowing Elias Lindholm to find room in the middle slot. That seems impossible, right? After all, Lindholm has been killing adversaries in the slot all season. But the Gaudreau line manipulates teams on a daily basis, even though teams know what is coming. 

More subtly, the depth forwards for Calgary have a caginess of their own that enables them to be surprisingly effective on the rush. The forwards on the second, third and fourth lines play mostly a power game, and they use that north-south attitude in transition to drive the puck into multiple defenders, thereby opening up a lane on the outside. The Flames’ depth forwards toy with opponents by drawing them in and then kicking the puck outside. 

What I love most about the Flames is their consistency. They usually score first and dominate the first period. And they can beat you in different ways. On Wednesday, the Ducks’ defensive coverage got picked apart in transition and in their own end. On Thursday, the Sharks’ puck management was their downfall. If the Kraken fall behind early, I have serious doubts about their ability to win. As such, I’ll take Calgary in regulation for a reasonable price.

Pick: Flames -135

Montreal Canadiens at Toronto Maple Leafs
Saturday, April 9 – 7:00 PM ET 
March 5th is as good a place as any to start. Since Auston Matthews’ two-goal game against Vancouver, the soon-to-be Hart Trophy winner has been Carolina Reaper ghost pepper hot. He has 19 goals in 15 games. Twelve of those have come at 5-on-5, which is the same amount that Leon Draisaitl has scored at all strengths. And Matthews is shooting a ton; he is averaging six shots a game, and against Dallas, on Thursday night he had 12!

The Montreal Canadiens’ defence looks like catnip for Matthews. In their last 11 games, the Canadiens allowed 36 shots per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. Only Columbus and Chicago have been worse. But it’s one thing to allow shots and another to allow quality chances. The Canadiens win that category handily. They have the worst expected goals against and high-danger chances against over that stretch of time.

It’s hard to imagine Montreal stopping Matthews mainly because the Matthews line has been destroying opponents. Since March 1st, it has a +29 high-danger chances differential. Its expected goals percentage is a whopping 71.84 percent. Last season, Montreal could deploy Phillip Danault to shadow Matthews. Danault is gone, and Toronto will be home so they will have the last change.

Canadiens goaltender Jake Allen had a terrific March as no goaltender had a better Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx). But Allen isn’t that good, and April has been a reckoning. In three games, he has a -1.91 GAx. 

One area where Allen could get exposed is on Toronto’s man advantage. The Maple Leafs have the best power play in the NHL by a mile, and Montreal is a top-five team in penalties taken per 60 minutes. Of late, the Canadiens’ discipline has been a little bit better, but Matthews is so dangerous at 5-on-5 that Montreal better not tempt fate and let him hammer shots from the flank while being a man down.

On the cycle, in transition, squished in close, from distance – Matthews can score in a variety of ways at 5-on-5, and he has two linemates who understand perfectly when and where to feed him the puck. Now that Matthews has the Maple Leafs’ record for goals in a season, maybe he dials back his shot volume. But against Montreal on Saturday night with all of Canada watching, I think he pops in at least one to remind people who the most valuable player is.

Pick: Auston Matthews Anytime Scorer -110

Arizona Coyotes at Vegas Golden Knights
Saturday, April 9 – 10:00 PM ET 
Bad movies can develop cult followings. Readers chortle when a critic skillfully flays a shallow or lazy book. Poorly conceived Tweets will be publicly roasted by a mob (for better or worse). In betting, our pathway to engaging with a truly putrid team is by investing heavily in its opponent. 

Folks, Saturday is that day. With both Clayton Keller out for the season and No. 1 defenceman Jakob Chychrun injured with an uncertain return, the Coyotes are dreadful. They are 1-3 with both players injured, and in their three losses, they were outscored 15-2. Every opponent they have played, other than the Chicago Blackhawks, has scored five goals. With the Vegas Golden Knights clamouring to make the postseason and desperate for wins, they have a fantastic opportunity to capitalize on an AHL-caliber team.

The Golden Knights’ Stanley Cup aspirations have been torpedoed by a season of never-ending injuries. But of late, coach Peter DeBoer has reinvented the team in a clever way. The rush-centric Golden Knights have been replaced by a grinding, possession-heavy, cycle team. Jack Eichel and Jonathan Marchessault still offer a threat in transition, but Vegas has embraced the forecheck to match its personnel. And by the way, it’s working. 

In their last eight games, the Golden Knights are a top-five team in expected goals and high-danger chances. But it’s the defence that has stood out. Vegas is owning the territorial advantage, and opponents are struggling to penetrate a defensive group that keeps tight gaps. 

The Golden Knights play a 1-2-2 in the neutral zone, but they will sometimes drop a forward back and have three skaters try to hold the blue line. Opponents have been successful against the Golden Knights when they have created turnovers below the goal line with their forecheck. I am very skeptical that Arizona can win this game by chipping and chasing.

Goaltending is another area where I think Vegas has a pronounced advantage. Arizona goaltender Harri Sateri looked shaky against Vancouver, and the numbers for Karel Vejmelka on the season are quite bad in terms of GSAx. 

For Vegas, Robin Lehner is back from injury, and on the season he has been good. Lehner can have trouble moving side to side, and on Wednesday night against Vancouver he gave up a lot of rebounds. Still, I struggle to believe the Coyotes will execute many wing-to-wing passes against Vegas, and the Golden Knights’ defensive group is fairly healthy, so they should be able to clear out the crease for Lehner if he is having trouble vacuuming up pucks. 

I hate taking puck lines. But the Coyotes’ scoring woes are so significant that it is conceivable Vegas blanks Arizona. With little run support needed, and the Golden Knights hungry for wins, I think they will coast. I’ll take the puck line to make it feasible. 

Pick: Golden Knights -140