TSN's top 50 MLB free agents of 2022 class

For the fifth year in a row, TSN MLB insider Steve Phillips and Blue Jays reporter Scott Mitchell have combined efforts to put together the top 50 names available in free agency.

In addition to the consensus top 50 list, Phillips and Mitchell provide their own individual rankings, as well as contract predictions, potential landing spots, and a Blue Jays take on the top 30 players in the free-agent class.

1. OF Aaron Judge, Yankees, age-31

Individual ranking
PHILLIPS: 1
MITCHELL: 2

PHILLIPS’ FITS: Aaron Judge is a once-in-a-lifetime player. He hits for average and power. He nearly won the triple crown this season, and he’s an even better person than he is a slugger. He is a marquee superstar who is a leader and can be the face and voice of an organization. He bet on himself by turning down eight years and $213.5 million. It paid off as he will likely get over $100 million more in the open market. There will be a bidding war for his services. He will sign with his childhood team the San Francisco Giants. Judge grew up 90 miles away. He will get 10 years at $370 million at the age of 31.  

MITCHELL’S JAYS’ VIEW: I’ll start off the Jays’ aspect of this with a brief Judge synopsis: He’s a great player and there’s no chance. As Steve said, it already seems to be back in the Big Apple or back home for the giant (pun intended) slugger.

2. SS Trea Turner, Dodgers, age-30

Individual ranking
PHILLIPS: 2
MITCHELL: 1

PHILLIPS’ FITS: Turner is a unique combination of power and speed. He’s both a run-scorer and run-producer. He can bat at the top of the lineup and serve as a table-setter or down a bit and drive in runs. He will be even more valuable in the years to come than he has been previously because he is a huge stolen base threat. With the rule changes designed to increase steals, he will be nearly impossible to contain. I see him signing with the Dodgers for 10 years at $300 million.

MITCHELL’S JAYS’ VIEW: Right off the bat here we’ll get to address the question of Bo Bichette’s long-term position. There are many variables that could include a shift to second base, but in my opinion, that’s a conversation for next winter, and the Jays internally already know it won’t make their star happy as he heads into his age-25 season. It's a very delicate situation at this point. And if by chance the front office decides now is the time to broach the subject, I sure as heck can’t find a way that they’re able to find the dollars for any of the four top-tier shortstops on the list unless we’re talking something extremely creative and a bit out of the blue. Turner, with his blend of pop, elite speed and defence, is my top player overall in this year’s free-agent class and he makes every single team in baseball better.

3. SS Carlos Correa, Twins, age-28

Individual ranking
PHILLIPS: 3
MITCHELL: 3

PHILLIPS’ FITS: Correa wasn’t able to secure the big contract that he and agent Scott Boras had hoped for last season. He settled for a three-year deal with an opt-out from the Minnesota Twins. He had an excellent season and was a four-plus WAR player. He can slug at the plate as he was a 140 wRC+, meaning he was 40 per cent better than average in 2022. He will get his multi-year deal this year from the Philadelphia Phillies for eight years at $256 million.

MITCHELL’S JAYS’ VIEW: Possessing one of the better shortstop gloves in the game, Correa is a great fit for the Blue Jays. As I explained above — and again below with Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson — I just can’t see it happening without three or four other mostly unlikely things happening first. Correa actually only posted a minus-3 Outs Above Average mark this year, which placed him 26th among shortstops, but it was still better than Bichette’s minus-7 showing, 30th of 37 qualified shortstops. The Jays need a player’s market to go dry and a Marcus Semien-type one-year prove-it opportunity to emerge.

4. SS Xander Bogaerts, Red Sox, age-30

Individual ranking
PHILLIPS: 4
MITCHELL: 4

PHILLIPS’ FITS: The Red Sox were a last-place team in 2022. The notion of losing their top player seems remote, but they let Bogaerts get to the point of opting out of his contract. Now all bets are off. He will score a mega deal from someone. He is one of the most consistent players in baseball. He can hit for average and power, and makes every routine play defensively. He may have to move off of shortstop at the end of his career, but that is more than several years away. The Red Sox can’t let him get away and will sign him for eight years/$240 million.

MITCHELL’S JAYS’ VIEW: The only thing Jays fans should be hoping for here is that the Red Sox find a way to botch this, he exits the division, and Boston spends the next couple of seasons in a full rebuild. The AL East is a beast and there needs to be a doormat or it’ll be bloody.

5. SP Jacob deGrom, Mets, age-35

Individual ranking
PHILLIPS: 5
MITCHELL: 6

PHILLIPS’ FITS: When healthy, deGrom is one of the best, if not the best, pitcher in the game. He has explosive, overpowering stuff. But his health has been a question over the past couple of seasons. Plus, he was a late-bloomer and is a bit on the older side. The Mets had a club-favourable deal, but he was given an opt-out and will exercise it. When Steve Cohen said they will do whatever it takes to keep the two-time Cy Young Award winner, he meant it. I can see deGrom getting a three-year, $135-million deal from the Mets. That’s right, shorter term but more money per year, just like the structure of Max Scherzer’s deal with New York.

MITCHELL’S JAYS’ VIEW: These are the types of names that GM Ross Atkins will make a call on and investigate where the market is. That may lead to a thirsty rumour or two as the baseball off-season takes eons to unfold, but it’s not a realistic scenario unless things start heading towards a short-term pact, similar to Justin Verlander a year ago. Just like Steve and I’s minor disagreement at the top with Judge and Turner flip-flopped, I also view Carlos Rodon as the best long-term starting pitcher on the market simply due to age and deGrom’s track record of health lately (not that Rodon’s is pristine, either). deGrom’s an absolute stud when he’s on the mound, but it’s been four years since he’s approached 200 frames in a season, and something tells me 2023 might feature some health woes as well.

6. SP Carlos Rodon, Giants, age-30

Individual ranking
PHILLIPS: 6
MITCHELL: 5

PHILLIPS’ FITS: Rodon had signed a two-year, $44 million deal with the Giants last off-season, with an opt-out after this season. Rodon proved that he could stay healthy after an injury-plagued 2021 season. He will now reap the benefits. He is a power pitcher who can get swings and misses. He was second in the NL with 237 punchouts. He is a bulldog of a competitor who can make good hitters look bad. The lefty will have all kinds of suitors and will get a five-year, $175-million contract from the Los Angeles Dodgers.

MITCHELL’S JAYS’ VIEW: Nobody trusted the big lefty’s health last winter and for good reason. Before 2021, the former third-overall pick from the 2014 draft had made just 41 starts from 2017 through 2020. Heading into his age-30 season, youthful for a pitcher, Rodon now has health on his side, as well as the 2.67 ERA he’s authored over his last 55 starts. Rodon should be at the very least in Kevin Gausman/Robbie Ray territory money-wise and the Jays didn’t show much interest a year ago when he was much cheaper, so they’ll likely sit this one out.

7. SP Justin Verlander, Astros, age-40

Individual ranking
PHILLIPS: 7
MITCHELL: 7

PHILLIPS’ FITS: Verlander triggered a player option for $25 million when he reached 135 innings pitched this season. He ended up throwing 175 innings plus the playoffs. He can opt-out of the deal for next year and I will be shocked if he doesn’t. He is the favourite to win the AL Cy Young Award for third time in his career. He has proven that not only is he healthy after Tommy John surgery, but he is still an elite workhorse in the rotation. The Astros won’t want to lose him. I expect he will sign a two-year, $60-million deal with an opt-out after year one of the deal and stay in Houston.

MITCHELL’S JAYS’ VIEW: Verlander keeps humming along, continuing to haul innings, strike out plenty of batters and keep the walks extremely low. Despite some nice batted-ball luck getting him to a 1.75 ERA in his age-39 comeback off Tommy John, Verlander is as good of a bet as any starter in baseball these days to post a sub-3.00 ERA and help a team win a whole lot of games. If the above contract is indeed the range Verlander is in, I could see the Jays eager to build a nasty top three of Gausman, Alek Manoah and Mr. Kate Upton. It’s important to remember the Jays were a legitimate landing spot in Verlander’s mind a year ago, and it would be surprising if that opinion has changed.

8. SP Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers, age-35

Individual ranking
PHILLIPS: 8
MITCHELL: 8

PHILLIPS’ FITS: As is always the case, when Clayton Kershaw is healthy, he is a dominant starting pitcher. His 12-3 record and 2.28 ERA are proof that he still has it. But the 22 games started and 126 innings pitched are a reminder that he is breaking down some and can’t be counted on for 32 games started. Indications are he wants to pitch at least one more season. It will be with the Dodgers. They will sign him to a one-year, $20-million deal.

MITCHELL’S JAYS’ VIEW: It feels like Kershaw is Verlander’s age and not five years younger, but that’s what happens when you’ve pitched at such a high level for such a long time. Like deGrom, you can never question the quality of innings when the man is on the mound, but you can question the durability and how much volume you’re going to get. A 2.28 ERA over 22 starts and 126.1 innings is worth a lot, but there needs to be a whole lot of rotation depth on hand, knowing there’s likely going to be an IL stint or two. But with that being said, is there that much of a monetary gap between what Kershaw and deGrom could give you in 2023?

9. SS Dansby Swanson, Braves, age-29

Individual ranking
PHILLIPS: 10
MITCHELL: 10

PHILLIPS’ FITS: Swanson has been a key cog to the Braves success in recent years. He has grown into sure-handed defender as well as a clutch hitter. He is a guy who excels with the game on the line on both sides of the ball. He is more substance than flash. The Braves will regret it if they lose him. The right people recognize that his value is greater than his solid production. He is a leader. Alex Anthopoulos, the Braves’ general manager, will find a way to keep him for seven years and $175 million.

MITCHELL’S JAYS’ VIEW: A sneaky-good player on this market, what Swanson ultimately gets will be interesting as he’s the clear fourth-best shortstop on this list when it comes to name value. The question, however, is whether he’ll end up being a better value when all is said and done. Despite all the good things he does, the low walk rate and plus-25 per cent K rate make him very similar to a lot of the bats already currently in the Jays lineup. But the glove is an obvious upgrade.

10. C Willson Contreras, Cubs, age-31

Individual ranking
PHILLIPS: 11
MITCHELL: 11

PHILLIPS’ FITS: Contreras is the best catcher available in the free-agent market. He is a solid two-way contributor who can handle a pitching staff and really swing the bat. The Cardinals need a catcher with the loss of Yadier Molina to retirement, but I don’t think the Cubs-Cardinals rivalry did any favours in St. Louis landing Contreras. The team that needs offence and an upgrade behind the plate are the Boston Red Sox. Look for Boston to pay him four years and $84 million.

MITCHELL’S JAYS’ VIEW: The Jays arguably have the deepest catching trio in baseball with Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk and Gabriel Moreno, making Contreras a non-starter. The thing to watch for will be the domino effect when Contreras does sign. Past the former Cub, the best backstop options are Gary Sanchez, Omar Narvaez and Christian Vazquez. In other words, not much left. That could leave Atkins in a great spot to peddle a catcher to the disappointed teams that miss out on Contreras.

11. OF Brandon Nimmo, Mets, age-30

Individual ranking
PHILLIPS: 12
MITCHELL: 12

PHILLIPS’ FITS: Nimmo is going to be hotly pursued by quite a few teams this winter. He is an on-base percentage machine who sets the table for sluggers in the lineup. He doesn’t have great power or speed, but he is a gamer who can work a walk and drive the ball in the gap and own the lines. He is a great teammate and more than adequate defender who can play centre field. The Colorado Rockies will sign him to a six-year, $126-million contract.

MITCHELL’S JAYS’ VIEW: If you’re looking at a picture-perfect fit in Toronto, Nimmo is the guy. He pretty much checks every box the Jays are looking for this winter when it comes to potential lineup upgrades. Lefty bat? Check. Gets on base? With a career .385 OBP, that’s a check. Plays solid outfield defence, including centre field, where George Springer may need more breaks from in 2023? Check. The issue once again is the budget, and money will need to be moved for another $20-million per year player. The nearly $15 million Teoscar Hernandez is due in his final year of arbitration would be a good start on that front. It’s hard to predict how the Jays will go about improving the lineup this winter because there are dominos with every scenario that you can imagine.

12. OF Andrew Benintendi, Yankees, age-28

Individual ranking
PHILLIPS: 13
MITCHELL: 13

PHILLIPS’ FITS: Andrew Benintendi is a good hitter. He doesn’t have much speed and he doesn’t hit for power, but he makes contact and is tough to strike out. He hits for average and can work a base on balls. He is a throwback hitter in this high swing-and-miss era of the game. He is a solid defender as well and a very good teammate. The Yankees traded for him because they need a player with his skillset. They still need that. The Yankees will re-sign him for seven years and $126 million.

MITCHELL’S JAYS’ VIEW: They couldn’t risk trading for him in the summer because of his vaccination status, but that’s out the window now and it won’t be a question Atkins has to ask this winter. Benintendi checks off many of the same boxes Nimmo does, except for the fact centre field is definitely not in his portfolio. The Jays will be adding lefty bats this winter, and there’s no doubt Benintendi is a skillset fit.

13. 1B Jose Abreu, White Sox, age-36

Individual ranking
PHILLIPS: 14
MITCHELL: 15

PHILLIPS’ FITS: Abreu has been a key cog in the White Sox lineup for nine seasons. He has been a leader on the field and in the clubhouse. He is a big-time run producer. He can drive in runs and hit home runs. He’s not a great defender at first base anymore and will likely transition to designated hitter. The good news is that he can still hit and lead despite playing next season at the age of 36. I think his time in Chicago is over with the Sox.

MITCHELL’S JAYS’ VIEW: The Jays have some Junior guy who just won his first Gold Glove, so I’d say first base is a bit of a strength and locking up the DH spot with an aging, right-handed power bat isn’t the way to go.

14. 1B Anthony Rizzo, Yankees, age-33

Individual ranking
PHILLIPS: 15
MITCHELL: 16

PHILLIPS’ FITS: Rizzo did the right thing to opt-out of his deal. He may not get more money per year but he can get more years. The Yankees will want him back but they may have to wait on the Judge negotiation to make a deal. In the meantime, other clubs will likely jump in with interest. Rizzo went to high school in South Florida. The Marlins need offence and have a hole to fill at first base. Rizzo would be a great mentor to the young roster in Miami. He will sign a three-year, $50-million deal with the Marlins.  

MITCHELL’S JAYS’ VIEW: The left-handed bat fits, but it’s really hard to envision the Jays adding one-dimensional players who don’t bring an iota of defensive value or versatility to the table, especially when it’ll take a multi-year deal. If Rizzo’s market craters and he’s seeking a one-year, maybe the Jays could get creative late in the off-season if they’re on Plan D. The Jays made a couple calls on Freddie Freeman last year knowing how good the offensive fit was, but it wasn’t overly close to happening.

15. 1B Josh Bell, Padres, age-30

Individual ranking
PHILLIPS: 18
MITCHELL: 14

PHILLIPS’ FITS: It was a tale of two seasons for Bell. He was excellent with the Washington Nationals but struggled after his trade to the San Diego Padres. The switch-hitting first baseman and DH is more of a blender than an aircraft carrier, but he can produce in a good lineup. The Astros will let Yuli Gurriel walk this winter and replace him with Bell for four years/$56 million.

MITCHELL’S JAYS’ VIEW: See above with Rizzo. Bell’s market would have to crater, the Jays would have to swing and miss on some opportunities, and then maybe there’s a Marcus Semien situation all over again. The difference between the two is an up-the-middle athlete versus a first base-only bat, making it unlikely unless the Jays see value in a full-time DH – even if it solves their need for left-handed production.

16. SP Chris Bassitt, Mets, age-34

Individual ranking
PHILLIPS: 16
MITCHELL: 18

PHILLIPS’ FITS: Bassitt has proven himself as a solid No. 2 or No. 3 starter. He is durable and has good stuff to shut down the better lineups. His deal will be limited a bit by his age. He was a good fit for the Mets in 2022 and they will lock him up for three years at $66 million.  

MITCHELL’S JAYS’ VIEW: The mid-rotation types are going to have massive markets and while it’s not a stretch to see the Jays in on this cohort at some level with two rotation holes to work with, a trade for a more cost-controlled starter seems more likely than another $20-plus-million free-agent arm.

17. SP Kodai Senga, Japan, age-30

Individual ranking
PHILLIPS: 17
MITCHELL: 17

PHILLIPS’ FITS: Senga has been an elite pitcher in Japan for the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks. He is coming off an excellent season in which he went 11-6 with a 1.94 ERA. He struck out 156 batters and walked 49 in 144 innings pitched. He throws 100 mph and has an exceptional split. He also shows a cutter and slider but they are not his put-away pitches. His arsenal is a bit like Kevin Gausman of the Blue Jays. He is a true free agent as he has accumulated enough service time not to have to be posted. I have him signing with the Blue Jays for three years and $39 million. He may be able to help the Jays get through to Yusei Kikuchi next year, too.

MITCHELL’S JAYS’ VIEW: As Steve mentioned, the key here is that Senga is a complete free agent and not subject to the posting system, which makes things a little easier for teams. If you want the Jays to shoot for the rotation stars this winter at a realistic rate, this is the guy. The Asian market is one the Atkins regime has placed emphasis on, and I’m fully expecting them to land one of these high-profile Japanese players at some point in the coming years. If the price is right, Senga could be a fantastic No. 4 starter with the upside for much more. But there’s also the unknown with the transition for Japanese pitchers. You only have to look at Yusei Kikuchi’s MLB career so far for evidence.

18. DH J.D. Martinez, Red Sox, age-35

Individual ranking
PHILLIPS: 20
MITCHELL: 23

PHILLIPS’ FITS: Martinez doesn’t have the same power he once had but he still delivers quality at-bats. He is more of a doubles hitter now. He would be a good fit on a rebuilding team because he likes to talk hitting and young kids can benefit from his experience. But I still think he can deliver championship-level at-bats for a win-now team. The San Diego Padres could use his bat. They sign him for two years, $26 million.

MITCHELL’S JAYS’ VIEW: Now in the decline phase after a pretty amazing prime as a one-time under-the-radar prospect, Martinez can help a contender, but it won’t be the Jays.

19. SP Jameson Taillon, Yankees, age-31

Individual ranking
PHILLIPS: 26
MITCHELL: 19

PHILLIPS’ FITS: Taillon pitched well in the tough AL East. He has had his share of injuries in his career but was able to make 32 starts for the Yankees in 2022. He is a solid No. 3 or No. 4 starter on a good team. The Texas Rangers need starting pitching until their pitching prospects are ready to help at the major-league level. Taillon is more than serviceable and would be a good mentor down the road. He signs with the Rangers for three years and $30 million.

MITCHELL’S JAYS’ VIEW: If there’s a rotation contract the Jays are willing to hand out this winter, it may be the popular three-year deal in the $30-40 million range, which is the range Ross Stripling, the man they’re potentially needing to replace, could ultimately fall into. Back-to-back healthy seasons have Taillon on the mid-rotation map and he could be the type of starter ready to turn in a handful of consistent, inning-eating seasons in his early 30s. He’d be a nice fit as a No. 4.

20. SP Ross Stripling, Blue Jays, age-33

Individual ranking
PHILLIPS: 25
MITCHELL: 20

PHILLIPS’ FITS: Stripling had a breakout season in 2022. He had the best year of his career with an ERA+ of 129 which means he was 29 per cent better than the average pitcher. But he isn’t a strikeout pitcher, which means he won’t be nearly as effective next season with baseball banning the shift. Stripling pitches to contact, so more balls will find holes. He deserves a multi-year deal, but teams need to be careful as to how much they pay him. I see him coming back to the Blue Jays at two years, $24 million.

MITCHELL’S JAYS’ VIEW: Stripling was a blessing in 2022 for the Jays, who watched the back end of their rotation fall apart quickly with Hyun Jin Ryu getting hurt and Yusei Kikuchi being bad. His changeup was on point and filthy from the get-go, but it’s going to be really interesting to see how the market values a control artist who throws 91 mph and just pitched a career-high 134.1 frames. Stripling’s case reminds me of Kyle Gibson’s three years ago, and that righty ultimately signed with the Texas Rangers for three years and $28 million. How many teams offer that third year may be the deciding factor for the Jays.

21. RP Kenley Jansen, Braves, age-35

Individual ranking
PHILLIPS: 21
MITCHELL: 25

PHILLIPS’ FITS: The veteran reliever signed a one-year deal with the Braves and showed he can still get the big outs in the ninth inning by leading the NL in saves with 41. He even missed some time with an issue with his heart, which has been an on-again, off-again issue for him. He still has game left. His performance on a one-year, $16-million contract will likely get him a multi-year deal. This time it will be the Texas Rangers signing him, with the nudge from new manager Bruce Bochy who certainly saw a lot of Jansen in San Francisco over the years. He gets a two-year, $34-million deal from the Rangers.

MITCHELL’S JAYS’ VIEW: Suddenly Jansen is the safest capital-C closer on the board after Edwin Diaz’s quick decision to return to the Big Apple. He should have plenty of suitors this time around, too, after posting another typical season at the age of 34, saving 41 games and authoring a 3.38 ERA. If for some reason he has to settle for another one-year pact, why wouldn’t the Jays be in on him this time around? If there’s one thing I know about Jordan Romano it’s that he loves pitching in the ninth inning, but he doesn’t need it. He’s team-first and it’s not a facade. This seems unlikely, however.

22. SP Taijuan Walker, Mets, age-30

Individual ranking
PHILLIPS: 24
MITCHELL: 22

PHILLIPS’ FITS: Taijuan Walker is a more than serviceable starting pitcher. He had some arm issues that have cropped up from time to time. He is a solid No. 3 or No. 4 starter on a good team. The San Francisco Giants will sign him for three years and $36 million.

MITCHELL’S JAYS’ VIEW: Walker priced himself out of the Jays’ range two years ago after he came over in a deadline deal, but he’s put together a decent body of back-end rotation work since signing with the New York Mets. Across 316.1 innings over the past two seasons, the 30-year-old has posted a 3.98 ERA and all the supporting metrics are in line with that number. After years of health issues, he’s looking like a fairly steady No. 4 starter that will find another multi-year deal. There will be arms the Jays like better, but that $30-40 million range might be the sweet spot if Atkins is to add a No. 4 starter via free agency rather than trade.

23. RP Rafael Montero, Astros, age-33

Individual ranking
PHILLIPS: 22
MITCHELL: 26

PHILLIPS’ FITS: Montero has emerged as a dominant setup man in Houston. He has overpowering stuff and a resilient arm. He filled in nicely as the closer when Astros closer  Ryan Pressly was on the injured list. He will market himself as a closer and will find significant interest in the free-agent market. His swing-and-miss stuff is exactly what the Blue Jays need. He heads north of the border and signs a three-year/$39 million deal.

MITCHELL’S JAYS’ VIEW: Montero and the next guy on this list are my two favourite bullpen arms on the market — add in lefty Matt Moore, who was No. 28 on my individual ranking — and if the Jays somehow found a way to get both it would be an A-plus job in my opinion. Montero has long been a tremendously talented arm since he was coming up as a starter in the New York Mets system, but he finally put it all together in the Astros pen this year after teasing previously. Not only did the righty hold down the ninth inning at times this year, he also has three pitches that limited batters to a sub-.200 average. As an added bonus, lefties can’t touch him, so there are no platoon splits to speak of.

24. RP Robert Suarez, Padres, age-32

Individual ranking
PHILLIPS: 23
MITCHELL: 27

PHILLIPS’ FITS: Suarez has a great arm and showed he could pitch in high-leverage situations. He will get consideration to be a closer in some places, while being a high-paid eighth-inning guy in others. The Padres will keep him by giving him a three-year, $36-million deal.

MITCHELL’S JAYS’ VIEW: The relief market, as usual, is ripe with uncertainty. You’ll notice disappointing big names like Aroldis Chapman and Craig Kimbrel down the list, as well as a host of other names that have saved games over the years like Taylor Rogers (another great Jays target), Will Smith, Brad Hand, Adam Ottavino and David Robertson. There is lots of value to be found every year on the relief market no matter the names available, but good luck figuring out where. Building a bullpen is as fickle as it gets, but Atkins and the Jays absolutely must spend both free-agent dollars and trade capital this winter to address an area that’s held them back at times since this window of contention opened. After getting a few glimpses at Suarez this year, he should absolutely be closing games and it would be a major W for the Jays to lure him to pitch the eighth.

25. SP Sean Manaea, Padres, age-31

Individual ranking
PHILLIPS: 33
MITCHELL: 21

PHILLIPS’ FITS: Manaea has had peaks and valleys in his career. I expect the analytically-driven teams to have strong interest in him. Some club will reshape his breaking ball and fine tune his mechanics to get him more consistent in the zone. Lefties develop a bit later, and Manaea may see everything fall into place. I see the San Francisco Giants signing him for a three-year, $30-million contract.

MITCHELL’S JAYS’ VIEW: If Manaea had become a free agent a year ago coming off a 3.1 fWAR season with the Oakland A’s, he’d be in the teens on this list. But instead, the lefty’s walk rate jumped, his K-rate dropped and he posted a disappointing 4.96 ERA in his only season in San Diego. I could see the Jays looking for a rotation lefty and maybe there’s some upside here on a buy-low deal of some sort. Manaea has bust or bargain written all over him, but if Kikuchi got three years last winter, Manaea should, too.

26. SP Martin Perez, Rangers, age-32

Individual ranking
PHILLIPS: 27
MITCHELL: 29

PHILLIPS’ FITS: Perez has figured out who he is as a pitcher. He locates his pitches and changes speeds to keep hitters off balance. He pitches to contact and is not a huge swing- and-miss guy. His value will diminish a bit without the shifting infield next season. I can see him with the Los Angeles Angels in 2022. They need pitching and Perez won’t break the bank. He will sign for two years and $26 million.

MITCHELL’S JAYS’ VIEW: I loathe to pay inconsistent, low-strikeout pitchers coming off career years and Perez definitely fits that bill. When he’s good, he’s been a solid mid-rotation type, but there are way too many Jaime Garcia vibes here for me to support Perez as a No. 4 on a multi-year deal.

27. OF Mitch Haniger, Mariners, age-32

Individual ranking
PHILLIPS: 19
MITCHELL: 39

PHILLIPS’ FITS: Haniger has been the best hitter and leader for the Mariners for more than a few years. Injuries have hampered him at times, but he is still a productive player. He delivers quality at-bats in big situations. He is a steady-as-you-go player who would be good on either a young team or veteran club. He is a great fit for the Boston Red Sox. They sign him to a three-year, $39-million deal.

MITCHELL’S JAYS’ VIEW: Our most extreme disagreement on this list, the Jays, like me, will have little interest in Haniger. That doesn’t mean others won’t, but a right-handed hitting corner outfielder with limited on-base might be the last thing this club needs, and is likely trying to divest itself of one in the end as Teoscar Hernandez and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. both enter their final season of control. When healthy, Haniger is productive, but it’s not my type of production, hence the No. 39 overall ranking.

28. SP Jose Quintana, Cardinals, age-34

Individual ranking
PHILLIPS: 28
MITCHELL: 30

PHILLIPS’ FITS: Quintana resurrected his career this year. He put himself back together in Pittsburgh and was traded to St Louis at the deadline, where he was able to showcase his ability to the baseball world again. He is another beneficiary of shifting defences. He is a contact pitcher who relies upon a quality defence behind him. Because of that he re-signs in St Louis for two years and $20 million.

MITCHELL’S JAYS’ VIEW: The Jays could’ve bought low on Quintana on multiple occasions, and I haven’t heard his name come up once, so I don’t expect that to change now. As Steve points out, the lefty fits best in a bigger ballpark with a really good defence behind him. The shift rule changes may have an impact on both the pitch-to-contact pitching market and the infield defender market this winter.

29. SP Tyler Anderson, Dodgers, age-33

Individual ranking
PHILLIPS: 29
MITCHELL: 31

PHILLIPS’ FITS: Anderson had the best season of his career (163 ERA+). He went 15-5 with a 2.57 ERA. He only struck out 138 batters in 178 innings, which means he is a pitcher who relies on weak contact instead of swings and misses. Someone will overpay him this winter, hoping for the 2022 version to return. The banning of the shifts will hurt him, and he may revert back to the pitcher he has always been: A No. 4 or No. 5 starter with some experience.

MITCHELL’S JAYS’ VIEW: Talk about a find for the creative Dodgers, Anderson is the type of back-end rotation signing Atkins would love to replicate multiple times over this winter. The lefty doesn’t overpower anyone, and it’ll be interesting, similar to Stripling, how clubs end up viewing low-K control artists in this market, but you can’t argue with the results. I don’t think the Jays will be in on Anderson this year, but they certainly will be trying to find this year’s version of Anderson and Andrew Heaney instead of letting L.A. do it again. Those out-of-nowhere guys are likely well down this list, just like Anderson last winter.

30. SP Nathan Eovaldi, Red Sox, age-33

Individual ranking
PHILLIPS: 30
MITCHELL: 33

PHILLIPS' FITS: When Nate Eovaldi pitches, he has been effective. The key word though is when. Eovaldi has had his share of injuries in his career, including two stints on the injured list this year. He had a lower back strain and later shoulder inflammation. When healthy, he is a solid No. 2-3 starter, with playoff pedigree. He can still help a staff, but the team will need six or seven viable starters because you can’t count on him making 30 starts. The Red Sox re-sign him for two years and $28 million. 

MITCHELL’S JAYS’ VIEW: Coming off a so-so season that featured 21 homers allowed in just 20 starts, Eovaldi has teased for years with his power stuff. Unfortunately, health seems to get in the way as the right-hander’s 32 starts in 2021 represent the first time since 2014 that he’s even approached a full season. When he’s on, Eovaldi limits the walks and is capable of cruising every fifth day when his health allows him to have his best stuff. Heading into his age-33 campaign, Eovaldi’s market is a tricky one. He’s likely to see some multi-year offers, but maybe he wants a one-year deal and another crack at a platform season. If that’s the case, he could be a fit at the back end of the Jays rotation as a good fourth or fifth starter, but one you know you probably won’t have for 30-plus starts.

 
31. SP Mike Clevinger, Padres, age-32

Individual ranking
PHILLIPS: 31
MITCHELL: 34

32. OF Michael Conforto, Mets, age-30

Individual ranking
PHILLIPS: 42
MITCHELL: 24

33. SP Andrew Heaney, Dodgers, age-32

Individual ranking
PHILLIPS: 35
MITCHELL: 32

34. SP Noah Syndergaard, Phillies, age-30

Individual ranking
PHILLIPS: 32
MITCHELL: 35

35. SP Carlos Carrasco, Mets, age-36

Individual ranking
PHILLIPS: 38
MITCHELL: 36

36. SP Corey Kluber, Rays, age-37

Individual ranking
PHILLIPS: 39
MITCHELL: 37

37. SP Shintaro Fujinami, Japan, age-29

Individual ranking
PHILLIPS: 40
MITCHELL: 38

38. RP Matt Moore, Rangers, age-34

Individual ranking
PHILLIPS: 51
MITCHELL: 28

39. 3B Justin Turner, Dodgers, age-38

Individual ranking
PHILLIPS: 41
MITCHELL: 41

40. 2B Kolten Wong, Brewers, age-32

Individual ranking
PHILLIPS: 34
MITCHELL: 49

41. 1B/OF Trey Mancini, Astros, age-31

Individual ranking
PHILLIPS: 44
MITCHELL: 40

42. OF Michael Brantley, Astros, age-36

Individual ranking
PHILLIPS: 43
MITCHELL: 42

43. 2B Jean Segura, Phillies, age-33

Individual ranking
PHILLIPS: 36
MITCHELL: 50

44. 3B/2B Brandon Drury, Padres, age-30

Individual ranking
PHILLIPS: 37
MITCHELL: 51

45. RP Taylor Rogers, Brewers, age-32

Individual ranking
PHILLIPS: 45
MITCHELL: 43

46. RP Aroldis Chapman, Yankees, age-35

Individual ranking
PHILLIPS: 46
MITCHELL: 44

47. RP Craig Kimbrel, Dodgers, age-35

Individual ranking
PHILLIPS: 47
MITCHELL: 45

48. RP Chad Green, Yankees, age-32

Individual ranking
PHILLIPS: 48
MITCHELL: 46

49. RP Andrew Chafin, Tigers, age-33

Individual ranking
PHILLIPS: 50
MITCHELL: 47

50. 2B/3B Joey Wendle, Marlins, age-33

Individual ranking
PHILLIPS: 52
MITCHELL: 48
 

** A player's "age season" is determined by how old they are on July 1 of that season. All players who turn a year older later than July 1 are listed as their current age.