Guerrero Jr. stays red hot as contract talks loom with Blue Jays

Although Vladimir Guerrero's 22-game hitting streak came to an end in Sunday's loss to the Oakland Athletics, the Toronto Blue Jays first baseman's hot streak put him in rarified air.

Over the course of the streak, Guerrero slashed .494/.558/.1.025 with 10 home runs, 22 runs batted in, and 24 runs scored. He became the first player since 1937 to have 35 or more hits, 10 or more doubles, 10 or more home runs, and 10 or more walks over a 20-game span. Only Babe Ruth Rogers Hornsby, Lou Gehrig and Joe DiMaggio had accomplished the feat prior to Guerrero.

With one year left in arbitration before becoming an unrestricted free agent in 2026, TSN Baseball Insider Steve Phillips says the Blue Jays will need to reach deep into the pocketbook for his extension.

"He's so young. He's just 25 years old. I think that, ultimately, it's going to be a 10-year contract. I think the term is going to be critical," Phillips said on TSN Overdrive. "When it comes to the dollars, it will be affected by how long [the contract] is. He's going to shoot for $30 million per year. Miguel Cabrera is really the only first baseman to get an average annual value of $30 million per year or more. I suspect that it's going to be between $25 and 30 million per year, and likely 10 years or more.

"You can't lose him. You need a centrepiece. It's hard to get top-flight free agents to say yes to Toronto. I would sign him. If it takes $30 million a year and it takes 10 or 11 years, I'm going there to get it done. At this time and place for the Blue Jays, I think it's where they need to go. 

Phillips also stressed the urgency at which the front office needs to engage Guerrero in conversations in order to avoid letting him get to free agency.

"It's incumbent upon the Blue Jays to engage him early,” he said. As soon as the season ends they need to get talking and get the deal done. This off-season is critical because once you start playing again, he might as well wait. They've got to get it done and understand that it's not going to be a comfortable contract. If you want to get him, you've got to get him now because the price is only going to go up when he gets to free agency."

Phillips compared the upcoming Guerrero contract to comparable first baseman in Los Angeles Dodgers' Freddie Freeman (six years/$127M, $27 million AAV) and Atlanta Braves' Matt Olson (eight years/$168M, $21 million AAV).

Guerrero is now hitting .319 on the season with 23 home runs and 76 RBI and is on pace for his best season since 2021, when hit 48 homers and finished second in American League MVP voting to Shohei Ohtani. He is seventh in the American League in Offensive Wins Above Replacement (4.5), fourth in batting average (.319), seventh in OPS (.934), and second in hits (144) behind Kansas City Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr.

Phillips believes that Guerrero has made several adjustments at the plate and should remain an elite bat for the rest of the season.

"I think he's going to be a high-level hitter for the rest of the year. His confidence level is so much better right now. His complexion, his posture, everything about him looks like there's a certain level of confidence," Phillips said Monday.

Over his six-year career, Guerrero has totalled 153 home runs, 480 RBI, and 446 runs scored to go with a .285/.360/.498 slash line. He is a four-time All-Star, one-time Gold Glove winner and one-time Silver Slugger.