Commanders, seeking to snap long drought, face tall task in top-seeded Lions on TSN

The Washington Commanders are already in the midst of an unexpected season.

A trip to the NFC Championship game for the first time in 32 years would only add to the magic.

You can watch the Commanders battle the Lions LIVE Saturday on TSN1/4, TSN.ca and the TSN App, with coverage starting at 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT.

Expectations were low for the Commanders entering the season: They had just added new head coach Dan Quinn and general manager Adam Peters, drafted quarterback Jayden Daniels second overall and were a year removed from moving on from long-time owner Dan Snyder.

The team was coming off a dreadful 4-13 finish in 2023 in which nothing looked right on the offensive or defensive side - they finished 25th in points for (19.4 per game) and worst in the NFL in points allowed (30.5 per game).

Oddsmakers agreed that the Commanders were not destined for success this year:

The oddsmakers also don't feel good about the Commanders' chances to pull off a historic upset on Saturday, as they enter as +9.5 underdogs on FanDuel.

However, it's been a season of proving doubters wrong and snapping ugly droughts for a franchise that has had very little to celebrate in the 21st century. 

The players are aware of the outside perception and are feeding into the underdog vibe of proving doubters wrong.

“We like being the underdogs,” starting right guard Sam Cosmi said. “They just keep on betting against us, and we keep proving them wrong."

“I kind of stay in my own bubble right now, focus on what’s next,” Daniels said Tuesday. “But I could just tell a lot of people are excited.”

Daniels is at the heart of the turnaround that has moved Washington from 25th in scoring offence to fifth in just one season. Daniels already accomplished a major feat by winning a road playoff game in his debut against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers a week ago, but rookie quarterbacks historically have struggled on the road in the playoffs.

The last rookie QB to win a playoff game for the Washington franchise was Hall of Famer Sammy Baugh in 1937, and the last rookie QB to win a road playoff game against a non-rookie opponent was Mark Sanchez of the New York Jets in 2009 against the San Diego Chargers.

Only the 2009 Jets and 2008 Baltimore Ravens, with Joe Flacco at the helm, have won multiple road playoff games with a rookie under centre - where both teams were buoyed by a defence ranked in the top three in scoring in the NFL. Washington's defence ranked 18th in points allowed in the regular season.

Any time a team is favoured by more than nine points by oddsmakers, there's a bit of a David and Goliath aspect to consider. And the Lions certainly fit the mold of a Goliath in this matchup.

Since offensive coordinator Ben Johnson took over in 2022, the Lions offence has been a juggernaut. Their 177 touchdowns scored in that span is 14 ahead of the next-closest team, the Buffalo Bills, and they rank first or second in most major offensive categories in that time.

Detroit scored 564 points in the regular season this year, which was best in the NFL and fourth most in a single season in NFL history - though the three teams to score more all failed to win the Super Bowl.

Even more challenging for the Commanders in the battle is the dominance the Lions have showcased on home turf at Ford Field.

Detroit averaged 35.2 points per game at home this season, best in the NFL, and led the league in yards per game (421.8) and passing yards per game (276.3) at home as well.

The Lions had five games this season in which they scored 40 or more points without a turnover, most in NFL history, and four of those games were at home.

Adding to the arsenal for the Lions is the likely return of running back David Montgomery to the lineup. The veteran, who missed the final three games of the regular season with a knee injury, rushed for 775 yards and 12 touchdowns as part of the "Sonic and Knuckles" backfield pairing with Jahmyr Gibbs.

“He's a huge part of us,” Campbell said of Montgomery. “He's a bell cow. He’s a tone-setter. He’s a catalyst.”

“There’s a place for him here, so there’ll be a place for him in this game. So, it’s going to be good to get him back.”

Detroit is also a franchise with a history of disappointment, as they still seek their first-ever Super Bowl appearance, let alone title, despite existing since before the AFL-NFL merger in 1966.

Despite the long odds for the Commanders to complete a shocking upset, there are a few factors working in the visitors' favour.

Lions quarterback Jared Goff has struggled in his career against teams coached by Quinn.

Dating back to 2016, when Goff was drafted first overall by the Los Angeles Rams, he holds a 1-4 career record against team coached by Quinn - who has been head coach of the Atlanta Falcons (2015-20) and Commanders, while serving as defensive coordinator for the Dallas Cowboys (2021-23) in the last nine seasons.

He has thrown four touchdowns against six interceptions with three fumbles lost and a 74.5 passer rating against Quinn-coached defences.

While with Detroit, Goff is 0-2 against Quinn-coached teams - both losses against the Cowboys in 2022 and '23.

This season, Goff was far stronger against man coverage than zone coverage. The Commanders primarily use zone coverage schemed, deploying man coverage on only 38.8 per cent of dropbacks this season, the fifth-lowest rate in the NFL.

Goff led the NFL in completion percentage, TD-interception rate and passer rating against man coverage this season.

Washington's offence also put up some prolific numbers this season, and Detroit's defence, which has been stunted by significant injuries, has been susceptible at points this year.

Detroit's defence allowed 30+ points three times in the final five games of the season, including a 48-point thrashing at the hands of the Bills in Week 15.

The Lions finished 30th in passing yards allowed this season. The Lions have been sorely missing elite pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson, the second overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft that went down with a fractured tibia and fibula in Week 6, and ranked 23rd in sacks as a team (37.0) this season.

In addition to Hutchinson, the Lions have the following defensive players on injured reserve heading into the matchup: linemen Alim McNeill, Kyle Peko, Mekhi Wingo and Marcus Davenport, linebackers Malcolm Rodriguez, Derrick Barnes and John Cominsky and defensive back Carlton Davis III.

The Commanders and Lions each had three games this season with zero punts and zero turnovers, the only two times that has ever been accomplished in a season in the Super Bowl era.

A major deciding factor in the game may end up being the rushing attack for both sides.

For all that Daniels did well in the air in his rookie campaign, the Commanders were surprisingly effective on the ground. The team finished third in rushing yards per game (154.1) and fourth in yards per carry (5.0) in the NFL.

The Lions, with their Sonic and Knuckles pairing, have been strong on the ground all season - the difference between the two falls in their proficiency against the run, an area in which the Commanders struggled this season.

A lot will have to go right for the Commanders to upset the Lions, but the team is still adamant they're up to the challenge.

“Guys are just excited, and guys come back in here ready to work with that same energy,” running back Brian Robinson said. “We know what we can do, we know what we can accomplish, we know how fun it is and we just want to keep having fun with it.”