What history shows Jays, Guerrero are in for entering his walk-year
Published
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is not Juan Soto or Shohei Ohtani. And he won’t receive a contract as hefty as they did.
But based on what he seems to be asking for and what the free-agent market has generated the past couple winters, it seems like a strong possibility Guerrero’s next deal will end up being the third biggest in baseball history.
What each side’s true best and "last” offer was at the time of the deadline Guerrero imposed last month is anyone’s guess, but we have at least a ballpark idea.
Joel Sherman and Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported on March 11 that Toronto tabled an offer of about $500 million with deferrals that would bring the present-day value down to $450 million or just below. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal revealed Guerrero was seeking $500 million in present day value, leaving the two sides about $50 million apart, give or take.
ESPN’s Buster Olney reported a day later both parties were separated by $50 million over 14 years, which lined up with the Post’s and Athletic’s reporting. Spread out over that time period, it’s a little more than $3.5 million per season. Olney reported Opening Day the Jays made another offer to Guerrero, but a gap between the two sides remains.
Guerrero himself even told ESPN’s Enrique Rojas and Ernesto Jerez that he asked for “much less” than Soto. More specifically, he said a proposal his camp tabled to the Jays was the same 15 years as Soto’s deal with the Mets, but the total figure was less than $600 million. Whatever the Jays’ offer was and whatever Vladdy is targeting, it certainly appears he’s in line to land the biggest non-Ohtani or Soto contract ever.
Of course, that could change.
Guerrero has only been elite in two of his six big-league seasons. And first basemen don’t provide the same kind of defensive value as other positions, even though Guerrero has a Gold Glove to his name. If he’s anything other than elite in 2025, it’d be fair if teams questioned the kind of Guerrero they’d be signing – the one he can be, or the one he’s been the majority of the time. What works in his favour is he’s heading into his final year of club control at the age of just 26, and teams will certainly value that when projecting Guerrero’s worth.
Blue Jays president Mark Shapiro took a firm stance last week, telling Keegan Matheson of MLB.com he still likes the team’s chances of keeping their homegrown star.
“I think we’re going to sign him. I think we’re going to extend him,” Shapiro said. “The reason I feel that way is because we have such a clear alignment on the desired outcome.”
Surely a team president – who has always been extra careful with his words – saying something that straightforward is noteworthy, but at the end of the day, one side has to say a number the other agrees to. And it still seems like the two sides have work to do as the 2025 season begins.
The six examples listed below of elite players entering their final year under contract are not necessarily the largest deals for position players in MLB history. Nor are they necessarily the most recent megadeals handed out.
But they are relevant benchmarks to illustrate the kind of demand Guerrero may receive if he hits the open market and the impact he can make on whichever team he ends up signing with.
Here are some situations similar to what Guerrero and the Jays are entering.
Juan Soto – New York Yankees
Juan Soto New York Yankees
Final season of club control: 2024
Age entering walk-year: 25
The situation: Sensing they wouldn’t be able to keep him after 2024, the Padres dealt Soto to the Yankees two winters ago. Soto didn’t have much interest in talking contract when he arrived in the Bronx, but things almost couldn’t have gone better during the season. He excelled under the bright lights of New York and had one of his best seasons alongside Aaron Judge. While the Yankees ultimately fell short in the World Series, they made about as good a pitch to keep Soto as a team could make.
The verdict: 15 years, $765 million (New York Mets)
What the Yankees didn’t have was Mets owner Steve Cohen’s chequebook, who seemed determined not to be outbid. But Soto also said he felt the Mets were better set up to contend long-term than the Yankees. How true that turns out to be won’t take shape for years, but it’s hard to argue with Soto’s choice if the Mets are going to continue to lead MLB in payroll and play at the top of the market every winter.
Shohei Ohtani – Los Angeles Angels
Shohei Ohtani Los Angeles Angels
Final season of club control: 2023
Age entering walk-year: 28
The situation: We’re all familiar with the Angels’ story by now. For six years they had Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout and didn’t reach the postseason once – or even finish with a record above .500. By late July in 2023, the Angels were on the outside of the playoff picture looking in, but decided to add pieces at the trade deadline rather than deal Ohtani to prevent him from leaving for nothing that winter.
With early reports indicating the two-way star preferred to sign with a winning organization, history showed little chance the Angels could offer that. TSN Baseball Insider Steve Phillips called the decision to hang onto Ohtani baseball malpractice. And after the Angels sputtered to a 73-89 finish, it seemed unlikely he would stick around.
The verdict: 10 years, $700 million (Los Angeles Dodgers)
If missing out on Ohtani hit the Blue Jays like a ton of bricks, it had to have a similar feel for the Angels when Ohtani reached a record-setting 10-year, $700 million deal with the crosstown Dodgers Not only did it mean the best player in the game was about to put on a different uniform, but it was going to be that uniform. The one of the team located a freeway away that’s been everything the Angels haven’t in recent years.
To little surprise, Ohtani won MVP, the Dodgers won the World Series, and the Angels won 63 games, finishing with their lowest winning percentage in club history. Oof.
Aaron Judge – New York Yankees
Aaron Judge Yankees
Final season of club control: 2022
Age entering walk-year: 29
The situation: Judge’s situation isn’t all that different from Guerrero’s. Ahead of the 2022 season, Judge turned down a reported eight-year, $230.5 million offer from the Yankees, electing to play out the final year of his deal with the team he couldn’t reach an agreement with.
Judge had been a lot more consistent than Guerrero to that point in his career, but he too faced questions that led to a gap what he thought he was worth and what the team he played for did. After hammering 52 home runs as a rookie in 2017, Judge struggled to stay on the field in the seasons after, playing in just 390 of a possible 546 games from 2018 to 2021.
The verdict: nine years, $360 million (New York Yankees)
Judge was right to bet on himself. He has one of the best offensive seasons ever in 2022 when he hit an American League-record 62 home runs and won MVP. He then signed a deal in December of that year that pays him $40 million annually and won his second MVP award this past season.
It can be rare that the incumbent keeps its star player once they hit free agency, but the Judge case proves to the Jays that not all is lost if it gets to that point with Guerrero.
Mookie Betts – Boston Red Sox
Mookie Betts Boston Red Sox
Final season of club control: 2020
Age entering walk-year: 27
The situation: After winning the World Series in 2018, the Red Sox took a step back the year after. Indications were owner John Henry wanted to reduce payroll and hired former Tampa Bay Rays executive Chaim Bloom as his new chief baseball officer. Up high on Bloom’s to-do list was Betts’ future.
It was a tough task. A player of Betts’ combination of talent and versatility is almost impossible to find. If extending him was unlikely, would Bloom risk playing Betts’ contract out and losing him for nothing or recoup whatever assets he could in a trade?
The verdict: 12 years, $365 million (Los Angeles Dodgers)
Usually trading a player expected to walk is good business – but not in this case. In February of 2020, Boston sent Betts to the Dodgers along with David Price in exchange for Alex Verdugo, Jeter Downs and Connor Wong. At the time, the return seemed reasonable, but the results have been anything but. Boston finished the COVID-19-shortended season 24-36 and has been back to the postseason just once since trading their franchise player.
In comparison, Betts cashed in with his new team and won a World Series later that fall. The Dodgers were champs again last season and are heavy favourites to repeat in 2025 while Betts remains one of the biggest stars in the game in the prime of his career.
Bryce Harper – Washington Nationals
Bryce Harper wins home run derby
Final season of club control: 2018
Age entering walk-year: 25
The situation: The Nationals tried to extend Harper late in the 2017 season by offering him a 10-year, $300 million contract, which he turned down. Since being selected No. 1 overall in 2010 and debuting as one of the highest-touted prospects in baseball history, Harper was named an MVP in 2015 and made the All-Star team in five of six seasons in Washington entering his walk-year. But the Nationals were loaded with top-end pieces at the time, pushing them into the luxury tax.
Plus, they had a 19-year-old named Juan Soto who debuted earlier that season and looked like a sure thing, indicating the Nats could potentially afford to lose Harper.
The verdict: 13 years, $330 million (Philadelphia Phillies)
It couldn’t have worked out better for Washington. Not only did Soto ascend quickly into the star that Harper was, but he also led the Nationals to their first ever World Series championship in 2019 while Harper fielded a “full buffet” of offers according to agent Scott Boras and settled on a $330 million deal with the Philadelphia Phillies.
He may have to shake off a few boos here and there being the guy in Philly, but since joining the Phillies, Harper has another MVP, made a trip to the Fall Classic in 2022 and continues to play a key role with a big-market team in a competitive window. And since winning it all six-plus years ago, the Nats haven’t been back to the playoffs. Dare we say things worked out for both sides?
Albert Pujols – St. Louis Cardinals
Albert Pujols St. Louis Cardinals
Final season of club control: 2011
Age entering walk-year: 31
The situation: Few players were as consistent as Albert Pujols entering the last year of his contract in 2011. From his rookie season in 2001 to 2010, Pujols averaged 41 home runs, 123 RBI and a 1.050 OPS. For most stars, that’s a career season. For Pujols it was average. So when the Cardinals won the World Series with Pujols in his final season of club control, losing him seemed unimaginable.
But for some reason, the Cardinals didn’t seem serious about keeping him. Pujols’ wife at the time, Deidre, told a St. Louis radio station in December 2011 the Cardinals initially offered only a five-year deal. That seemed to poison the well, and when reports emerged the Cardinals’ last offer to Pujols was for 10 years and $210 million with $30 million deferred, it wasn’t surprising he signed elsewhere.
The verdict: 10 years, $254 million (Los Angeles Angels)
The Angels blew St. Louis’ offer out of the water and signed Pujols to a deal worth over $50 million more that also included a personal services agreement. But despite the initial shock of losing their franchise player, the Cardinals ended up getting this one right.
Pujols was a different player during his time with the Angels. In 12 seasons as a Cardinal, Pujols had 469 home runs, 1,397 RBI, hit .326 and had a 1.031 OPS. Over the course of his deal with the Angels, Pujols hit .256 with 222 home runs, 783 RBI and had a .758 OPS. Pujols reunited with the Cardinals in 2022 and turned back the clock as much as a 42-year-old first baseman could, slugging .550 with 24 home runs.
What does it all mean?
From these six examples, only once – Judge – did a player entering the final year of free agency with their original club stick around. Ohtani leaving the Angels and Betts leaving the Red Sox set their respective franchises back quite a bit. But on the flip side, the Nats won a title without Harper and the Cardinals dodged a bullet considering Pujols’ decline in the second half of his career.
In the short-term, the thought of losing Guerrero seems like the worst-case scenario for the Jays. But there’s still so many variables at play and the real long-term effect of retaining Guerrero, trading him or losing him in free agency won’t be known for years.
Nevertheless, that’s the job. Executives are paid to forecast big-picture decisions and are expected to be right more often than wrong. And for Ross Atkins and Shapiro, two execs under as much pressure as any front office this year, a favourable outcome in the Guerrero situation seems like a necessity.