Parity watch: Which NFL division champion's reign is most likely to end this year?

Recent NFL regular-season action has been defined by two divisional pictures - those with a consistent winner, and those with true parity.

Not all stories are told in the same way, but four divisions have been controlled by a single team for many seasons, while the other four have been a fight.

Of the four consistent performers, which is the most likely to lose control of their division this season? And which is most likely to sustain their success?

AFC West - Kansas City Chiefs

The Kansas City Chiefs have enjoyed a historic run of success since Andy Reid was brought on as head coach ahead of the 2013 campaign, winning the AFC West every year since 2016.

They've won three Super Bowl titles in the last five years with quarterback and two-time Most Valuable Player Patrick Mahomes leading the way. Their consistent dominance over division opponents is beginning to rival that of the New England Patriots earlier in the 21st century.

Kansas City holds a 41-7 record against their divisional opponents in the past eight seasons, and have won the division by at least two games every year since 2018, when they and the Los Angeles Chargers both finished 12-4.

Entering the 2024 campaign, the odds Reid, Mahomes and company are unseated atop the division appear very slim as all three of the Las Vegas Raiders, Denver Broncos and Chargers are in a state of flux.

The Raiders finished 8-9 last year after firing head coach Josh McDaniels midway through the year, and Antonio Pierce will get a full try this year. Career journeyman QB Gardner Minshew will attempt to get an offence that finished 23rd in scoring a season ago moving in a positive direction.

The Chargers struggled defensively last year, and enter this year with a new head coach in Jim Harbaugh and a lot of new faces on offence after veterans Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Austin Ekeler all found new homes over the off-season.

Denver enters the season with rookie QB Bo Nix leading the way after finishing with middling results offensively and defensively last year.

AFC East - Buffalo Bills

Since future Hall of Famer Tom Brady departed the New England Patriots after the 2019 season, the Buffalo Bills have been the dominant force in the AFC East.

Josh Allen has ascended to elite status at the QB spot for Buffalo, accounting for at least 4,000 yards passing and 40 total touchdowns in each of the past four seasons; Buffalo has finished first in the division in all four.

There are no guarantees the success continues in Western New York this year, though - the Miami Dolphins finished tied with Buffalo at 11-6 last year, due in no small part to injuries across the lineup late in the campaign.

With health back on their side, last year's second-ranked scoring offence is primed to compete for a Super Bowl championship this year.

Which is to say nothing of the New York Jets, who are hoping for a full season out of four-time league MVP Aaron Rodgers after the QB played only three snaps last year.

New York's defence ranked 12th in points allowed and third in yardage allowed last year, and expectations are sky-high for third-year running back Breece Hall after just under 1,600 yards from scrimmage a year ago.

The one glaring weakness on the roster was QB play, which should be significantly corrected with Rodgers in the lineup.

NFC West - San Francisco 49ers

The San Francisco 49ers have won the NFC West two years in a row, made the Super Bowl twice in the last five years and earned playoff appearances four of the last five campaigns.

Kyle Shanahan's squad is humming on both sides of the ball - ranking in the top six across the NFL in both points scored and points allowed in back-to-back years, with RB Christian McCaffrey named AP Offensive Player of the Year last year, and edge rusher Nick Bosa awarded AP Defensive MVP two seasons ago.

The recent dominance out of the Bay Area has settled the waters in what is traditionally a tumultuous division. Since 2013, every team in the NFC West has made at least one Super Bowl appearance, while the Seattle Seahawks, Los Angeles Rams and 49ers have made multiple.

After missing a portion of last year to injury, QB Kyler Murray is slated to play a full season for the Arizona Cardinals with top wide receiver draft pick Marvin Harrison Jr. added to the fold.

The Rams are three years removed from a Super Bowl title and reportedly have a healthy Matt Stafford back under centre after numerous injuries have slowed the veteran the last two campaigns. Even with a passing game ranked in the middle of the league last year, Los Angeles qualified for the postseason with a 10-7 record.

San Francisco is a popular pick to return to the Super Bowl out of the NFC, but multiple teams are lurking and could challenge the 49ers in the NFC West. 

NFC South - Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers franchise was given a boost out of thin air, when Brady departed from his longtime home in New England to join the Florida franchise.

His arrival in 2020 immediately paid dividends with a Super Bowl title, and the team has won the division in each of the following three campaigns.

When Brady retired two years ago, obvious questions over who would lead the franchise forward emerged and Baker Mayfield was the answer they went with. His strong season earned him a three-year, $89.5 million deal this summer.

Their control of the division has been tenuous at best in the last two seasons though - a combined 17-17 record has been enough to earn them postseason berths and division titles over weak competition.

Of the Carolina Panthers, Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints, only Atlanta made significant progress with their roster over this past off-season.

They signed veteran QB Kirk Cousins to a four-year deal, and acquired veteran edge rusher Matthew Judon in a trade with the Patriots in a pair of moves that can help correct their two biggest flaws.

The Falcons' offensive arsenal now includes Bijan Robinson at running back, who was selected eighth overall last year, Drake London, a WR drafted eighth overall in 2022, and Kyle Pitts at tight end, who was drafted fourth overall in 2021.

Atlanta opens their schedule against the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday.

Watch the NFL on TSN and TSN+

The 2024 NFL season kicks off with a bang as TSN and TSN+ will air a total of seven games in Week 1. 

The action starts Thursday, Sept. 4 with as the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs host Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens in the season opener.

One night later, the first of five international games this season features a NFC battle between the Green Bay Packers and Philadelphia Eagles from Sao Paulo, Brazil on TSN, TSN.ca and the TSN App.

The action will resume with a fully loaded first Sunday of the season, highlighted by the return of NFL RedZone on TSN+.

The week will finish off with a Monday Night Football must-see matchup as Aaron Rodgers makes his return with the New York Jets against the San Francisco 49ers.