Jets back in Top 5, Canadiens take biggest drop in Power Ranking

It’s the final day of March, and the races for wild-card spots and playoff positioning are heating up across the National Hockey League.

All seven Canadian teams still have a chance to make the playoffs, though this past week seriously dented a couple of team's chances.

Our top-ranked Canadian team, the Winnipeg Jets, are up one spot from sixth to fifth on our list. Winnipeg cruised to a 3-0-0 record last week, maintaining its six-point lead over the streaking Dallas Stars for the top spot in the Central Division.

Connor Hellebuyck, a slam dunk for the Vezina Trophy, became only the third goalie since 2000 to post multiple 43-win seasons. While the Jets have more points and a better goal differential than any team, they rank fifth on our list largely due to sitting 12th in expected goal differential.

Down three spots, from seventh to 10th, are the Edmonton Oilers. Edmonton lost on back-to-back nights last week to Dallas and Seattle by a combined score of 10-4. Thankfully, the injury-plagued Oilers got Leon Draisaitl back in time for the Battle of Alberta on Saturday. The Hart Trophy candidate scored twice to get the Oilers back in the win column.

It’s tough to evaluate this Oilers team right now as it is missing Connor McDavid and Stuart Skinner. Trent Frederic and Evander Kane are still sidelined as well. The Oilers lineup may look quite different when the playoffs start. For now, Edmonton will need to stack points to ensure it stays ahead of the charging Wild and to get home-ice advantage if they play the Kings in the first round.

Up three spots to 12th this week are the Toronto Maple Leafs. Toronto finished strong in California with wins over the Kings and Ducks and now have a three-point lead for the top spot in the Atlantic Division.

Winning the division would be huge for the Leafs to avoid either the Lightning or defending Stanley Cup champion Panthers in the first round. Our playoff projection model currently gives the Leafs a 43 per cent chance of winning the division. The Lightning have a 34 per cent chance, while the Panthers sit at 23 per cent.

John Tavares has been on a massive heater since the 4 Nations break. Tavares leads the NHL with 14 goals since the break and is tied for fifth in points with teammate Willian Nylander with 24. The Leafs have a couple of days off before facing the Panthers at home Wednesday night.

Dropping two spots, from 12th to 14th, are the Ottawa Senators. The Sens finished last week with a 2-1-1 record and have all but cemented their spot in the playoffs. The Senators have a 99 per cent chance of making the playoffs, according to our model. Their most likely first-round opponent is the Toronto Maple Leafs. Fans on both sides would no doubt love to see the Battle of Ontario in the postseason for the first time since the early 2000s.

Ottawa, 10-3-1, has the sixth best points percentage of any team in March. The Sens seem to have found an identity under Travis Green and will be a tough out, regardless of who they faces in the postseason.

Up three spots, from 19th to 16th, are the Vancouver Canucks. Vancouver left a point on the table in Friday’s 7-6 shootout loss to the Blue Jackets before losing in regulation to the Jets on Sunday night. The losses have put a massive dent in the Canucks playoff chances as our model gives them a five per cent chance of making the postseason.

Up four spots, from 23rd to 19th, are the Calgary Flames. Calgary has also lost two straight and sit seven points back of the Blues for the final playoff spot with three games in hand. Our model gives the Flames a 14 per cent chance of making the playoffs.

Lastly, the Montreal Canadiens are down nine spots from 18th to 27th this week. The good news for Habs fans is that their team is sitting in a playoff spot right now.

Realistically, there is one spot open in the East, and Montreal has the best odds of any team at claiming the eighth and final spot at 43 per cent. The Rangers sit at 26 per cent to make the postseason, while the Blue Jackets have a 23 per cent chance.

Montreal picked up a huge win Sunday against the Panthers but had lost five straight games before that. The Canadiens kick off a huge homestand Tuesday against the Panthers before hosting the Bruins and Flyers later this week.