Canada has questions in the crease ahead of 4 Nations Face-Off

Recency bias or not, the Paris 2024 Olympics felt like the most compelling international competition in recent history. From a shot heard ‘round the world to Canada’s stunning 4x100 metre relay gold medal, it was a two-week blitz of brilliant competition.

So pardon me (and many others) for feeling a little patriotic right now. And there’s good news on the horizon: hockey fans are set for their own best-on-best competition come February 2025 in the NHL’s 4 Nations Face-Off.

While it may lack the juice (and certainly the history) that Olympic competition brings to the table, it should be able to make up for it with high-calibre competition through this four-country gauntlet.

Canada is rightly expected to be favoured in the tournament, but Sweden, Finland, and the United States are icing exceptionally talented teams in their own right. In fact (and perhaps not dissimilar to men’s Olympic basketball), the talent gap between Canada and the chasing pack seems as narrow as it’s ever been. If you don’t believe me, consider the betting markets: Canada’s implied probability to emerge victorious is about 40 per cent, with the United States at 33 per cent.

Some of this is simply the reality of talent improvement around the world. I think there’s an argument the U.S. for example, is better and deeper than Canada at two of the three positions in a best-on-best competition. Perhaps the bluelines are debatable, but the goaltending is not, and it’s likely Canada’s biggest (and perhaps only) concern when it comes to finalizing their lineup.

To that end, our question to explore for today: Who, exactly, should backstop this otherworldly Canadian lineup?

A couple of weeks back, NHL Network posited six potential names for the work:

• Tristan Jarry (Penguins)
• Stuart Skinner (Oilers)
• Jordan Binnington (Blues)
• Connor Ingram (Utah)
• Adin Hill (Golden Knights)
• Logan Thompson (Capitals)

Those are six quality goaltenders, but none individually jumps off the page. Plus, you’re comparing them to the likes of the United States’ Connor Hellebuyck, Finland’s Juuse Saros, or a two-headed Swedish monster in Jacob Markstrom and Linus Ullmark.

So, who has the best shot of winning the ice for Canada? Let’s explore that question by analyzing the last three years of performance, focusing on save percentages and goals saved versus expectations (adjusting for the difficulty of the shot profile faced for each player). I have included other likely 4 Nations Face-Off goaltenders for comparison's sake:

Canada has no shortage of good options, but on a relative basis, you can see where the concern is: Hellebuyck, Saros, and the Swedish duo in Markstrom and Ullmark aren’t just four entrenched NHL starters, they are also four of the better goaltenders you can find in the world. And that’s before we get to the likes of Thatcher Demko (United States) or Ville Husso (Finland) as other playable options.

What I do think is interesting is two lesser-experienced Canadian goaltenders, at least from a performance standpoint, may have the best argument for the starter role.

The 25-year old Skinner won the starter’s net on an Edmonton team that, while strikingly talented, can play a very up-tempo game that exposes goaltenders from time to time. Ingram is even less experienced, with just 80 NHL games played in his professional career. And yet he had 50 appearances for the now-relocated Arizona Coyotes last year, playing strikingly well and pushing Karel Vejmelka into a backup role. Last season alone, Ingram erased about 18 goals from Arizona’s goals-against column based on the shot profile he faced, a number most comparable to New York’s Igor Shesterkin.

I liked everything I saw from Ingram last year, and it’s part of the reason why I think Utah has a chance to surprise teams in the Central Division this season. But you know there are going to be concerns with his (and possibly Skinner’s) inexperience, enough to ponder if a veteran like Pittsburgh’s Tristan Jarry makes sense.

Jarry has had a wildly up-and-down career but is coming off a strong season of his own on an otherwise middling Penguins team, and for the statistical purists out there, his three-year save percentage (91.2) is ninth best in the NHL over that time period – sandwiched between Tampa Bay’s Andrei Vasilevskiy and Los Angeles’ Darcy Kuemper.

Across the six Canadian options, I think the decision will ultimately come down to these three names. Jarry feels like a safe choice, and may be the safest choice of the six to make the team. But those starter minutes? They feel very much up for grabs, and another strong start to the season from the youngsters in Skinner and Ingram may force Canada to go with youth in net.

Data via Natural Stat Trick, NHL.com, Evolving Hockey