Considering an unlikely Crosby trade

The National Hockey League regular season is fast approaching, and before business picks up I need to address the elephant in the room: The hockey community is underestimating the possibility of Sidney Crosby being moved at the trade deadline.

The notion of trading a player the calibre of Crosby can be silly to begin with; doubly so when you consider what he has meant to the Pittsburgh Penguins over the past 19 years. Even with the supernova Connor McDavid taking center stage these days, Crosby remains a top-billing star who is a freakish combination of skill and hockey smarts as he enters his 20th season.

To be sure, the probability of him being moved isn’t high. Crosby, the face of the franchise and on an expiring deal, could be extended before camp begins. And if the Penguins are competitive this season, it’s hard to imagine they move their most capable player.

Over at The Athletic, the venerable Josh Yohe did a great job breaking down the argument against a Crosby trade. And yet I think you can turn some of those points on their face in a way that makes a trade viable — for both Crosby and the Penguins.

Imagine for a moment that the Penguins struggle early. It is precisely Crosby’s loyalty to the franchise that would suggest a trade could be fruitful: the returns even for a rental of Crosby would be extraordinary, and under the same assumption that Crosby’s loyalty is unwavering, he would return back to Pittsburgh (with possibly more help rostered as soon as 2025-26) on his retirement deal. Rebuilds can take years; a move of this magnitude could accelerate that timeline.

Crosby may be wholly disinterested in chasing a Stanley Cup, especially considering the hardware he already has. But compared in relativity to playing out the string in March and April? That’s the pertinent question. And if Crosby’s ultimate goal is to win another title in Pittsburgh, there’s nothing more selfless than signing up for this line of work. 

There’s one more argument brought forward: Pittsburgh is not in cap distress, so there’s no fiscal reason to move Crosby. Again, flip the scenario around. The space they maintain increases the likelihood of a deal — they can retain some of Crosby’s salary to juice the return on a trade, typical of what you see in deadline moves.

That said, this hypothetical is only as good as the identification of potential trading partners. Let’s consider those just from a cap space and centre depth perspective, and see if there are landing spots.

The below table shows each team’s top-nine centre profile as forecasted to start the year, as well as if the team were to replace their weakest link with Crosby:

Every team benefits across the board, and in many cases considerably. There are only a few cases where a Crosby fit seems unfathomable – the Edmonton Oilers being a good example, owing to their dominance already at the position between Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, and the non-existent cap space on top. But the Oilers are much more an outlier than anything else.

The top-three teams from last year’s Central Division (Dallas Stars, Winnipeg Jets, and Colorado Avalanche) all have flexibility and the pedigree to compete for a title with Crosby in tow. The Detroit Red Wings are another fascinating idea: a fringe contender, but one with ample cap space and the assets to move in a potential trade.

And then there are just downright dreamy, if unlikely scenarios. No team would benefit more from a rental of Crosby than the Canadiens, owing to their relative weakness down the middle. In the case of Montreal, Crosby’s presence and the displacement of one top-nine centre would mean a net improvement of five wins in the standings. That is exceptional.

And although they do not have the cap space today, one would be foolish to rule out the Vegas Golden Knights in any potential big deal. They have mastered salary cap gymnastics, are under immense pressure to win, and the thought of Jack Eichel, Sidney Crosby, and Tomas Hertl anchoring their top nine is downright terrifying.

One component to keep in mind when evaluating trade partners: Crosby has a full no-movement clause, which may or may not be a headwind. It will reduce trading partners, but also allows Crosby to self-select a team in the architecture of a trade. If Crosby has no interest in playing for a rival? Nixed. A Canadian franchise? Nixed. An American franchise because he wants to play back home temporarily? Nixed.

All this to say that a Crosby trade may be relatively unlikely, but the circumstances around both the player and the team give rise to it being a possibility.

It’s something that could be a true win-win-win for the Penguins, Crosby, and a trade partner pushing for a Stanley Cup. Those elements alone will mean this discussion won’t go away until Crosby has signed an extension, or the calendar turns past March 6, 2025.

Data via Natural Stat Trick, NHL.com, Hockey Reference, PuckPedia