Yost: Hronek and Hughes making their case as NHL's top blueline duo
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Do the Vancouver Canucks have the best defensive pairing in hockey? One month into the 2024-25 regular season, they have certainly forced their way into the discussion.
The Canucks have invested rather heavily in improving the state of the blueline over the past few years, to mixed degrees of success. But this offseason, Vancouver made a decisive bet, signing the recently-acquired Filip Hronek to an 8-year, $58 million contract.
Coupled with a face-of-the-franchise player in Quinn Hughes, the Canucks entered this season with nearly $16 million in payroll on their presumptive top pair. Or said differently, Vancouver’s top pair is consuming nearly 18 per cent of the team’s cap, a substantial number.
With large contracts come larger expectations of performance. But this duo has shined in a way that’s carrying this Canucks team in a considerable way — the exact type of outperformance you need to justify an expensive top-pair.
The Hronek/Hughes pairing would have felt ambitious just a decade ago, but the modernization of hockey has seen teams invest heavily in two-way defenders comfortable with the puck on their stick. It doesn’t just help alleviate defensive zone pressure after puck recoveries, It’s critically important for meaningful transition play and offence off the rush. Find the right duo, and any marginal loss in defensive integrity can be aggressively offset from a pairing’s ability to dictate possession and drive play north.
And watching this pairing over the first month, that’s all the tape shows – a Vancouver team, particularly at even-strength, that is extremely dangerous with their first pairing deployed. Puck possession and expected goal rates are remarkable, and that’s had a direct impact to goal differentials.
In fact, Vancouver’s fate in the standings would be quite different without this dynamic duo. Consider Vancouver’s even-strength splits with and without this pairing deployed:
Yost
They are dictating the run of play when they are on the ice, and the Canucks have parlayed that into a massive goal differential – just a month into the season, Vancouver’s outscoring teams 13-5 (plus-8) in less than 200 minutes of this pairing together. Juxtapose that against the production Vancouver’s getting from their second and third-pairings, who have been outscored 23-14 (minus-9) in 324 minutes. While it’s true they are playing with the team’s more talented forwards (to say nothing of playing in front of the venerable Thatcher Demko), it’s also true they are facing rather difficult competition. And it’s not that Vancouver is yielding quality results with their best players on the ice, that’s to be expected — it’s the level of dominance they are experiencing, even compared to high-end counterparts around the league. And compared to their depth players, it’s a 17-goal swing!
And this isn’t just the bottom rungs of Vancouver’s depth chart painting their top-pairing in a positive light. Compare Vancouver’s net-goal differential with the Hughes/Hronek pairing versus other quality defensive duos around the league – they standout as one of the best:
Yost
Amidst regular pairings across the NHL, only three – Brock Faber and Jacob Middleton in Minnesota, Dmitry Orlov and Jalen Chatfield in Carolina, and Janis Moser and Victor Hedman in Tampa Bay – have produced better goal differentials this season. And all three of those pairings have enjoyed extraordinary puck luck on one or both ends of the ice: the Minnesota tandem is getting a staggering 97.8 save percentage on the ice, whereas the duos in Carolina and Tampa Bay are benefiting from blistering shooting percentages exceeding 14 per cent. That’s the sort of company the Hughes and Hronek pairing is keeping right now!
How Hronek’s contract may age is a debate for another day, but there’s little arguing how well this is working in Month One, Year One. And in a relatively weak division, one dominant pairing in front of strong goaltending should be enough to ensure a top-four finish. They’ll certainly need better play from the rest of the lineup to beat teams like the Vegas Golden Knights or Edmonton Oilers when it matters, but right now, Rick Tocchet has to be pleased.
Data via Natural Stat Trick, NHL.com, Evolving Hockey