High-flying Jets thriving early with up-tempo style
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Entering the 2024-25 season, I figured the NHL’s Central Division would be the deepest and most competitive of the league’s four groupings. That theory has been reinforced by what we’ve seen on the ice through the first two weeks of the season.
The division is playing to a 98-point pace, and that’s with the league’s most disappointing team in the Nashville Predators (0-5-0) weighing things down.
A look at the rest of the division is something fierce: the Dallas Stars and Colorado Avalanche are Stanley Cup contenders until further notice, the Minnesota Wild and St. Louis Blues both look like improved teams, and write off this young Utah team at your own discretion – they look fast, dangerous, and ready to steal a playoff berth as soon as this year.
But no team is drawing more early attention than the Winnipeg Jets, and for good reason. Winnipeg is off to a 5-0-0 start, outscoring opponents by a staggering 24 to 8 (+16) goal differential in the process.
Some of this you expected. Connor Hellebuyck, for example, has a .952 save percentage and has erased five expected goals from the Winnipeg defensive ledger based on the shot profile he’s faced. For as long as Hellebuyck’s manning the crease, Winnipeg has a chance.
Offensively, the results have been a bit more surprising, and to the upside. Yes, the power play is firing on all cylinders, but they’re also shooting 33 per cent – an incredible start, but the type of puck luck that can delude our understanding of how effective that unit may be long term.
It’s at even strength where I think the results are intriguing, and perhaps more encouraging for the long-term success of this team.
For some years now, the Jets have been trying to build some productive depth behind the Mark Scheifele line, to varying degrees of success. To start this season, head coach Scott Arniel has preserved the Kyle Connor and Scheifele duo at the top of the lineup, paired with 25-year-old winger Gabe Vilardi.
That allows Nikolaj Ehlers to anchor the team’s second line with 22-year-old winger Cole Perfetti and veteran centre Vladislav Namestnikov, and preserves the team’s presumptive checking line further down with Adam Lowry, Mason Appleton, and Nino Niederreiter.
How has this strategy fared so far?
Notably, the only line that’s being outplayed of the four is the same Scheifele line that has carried this team for years. Scheifele and company tend to draw the toughest assignments, and just haven’t had the same shooting luck (3.1 per cent as a group) as the rest of the roster seems to have right now. But other than the temporarily quiet scoring, there’s nothing to be concerned with here.
What’s more encouraging is how the rest of the roster is playing. If you aggregate the bottom nine’s minutes together, they have outscored their opponents 9 to 2 (+7) and have done so while generally dictating the pace of play in all five games.
What’s been noticeable to me is just how aggressive this lineup seems to play in all three phases of the ice – they are playing a very up-tempo style of hockey that is leading to heaps of incremental chances, both for and against.
That’s an interesting strategy in the context of having a relative goaltending advantage on a nightly basis. A goaltender the calibre of Hellebuyck is hard to expose – even outside of structure. I don’t know if this is a strategy Winnipeg is leaning into or if they fell into it by random chance, but the idea of chasing more scoring opportunities offensively and leaning on Hellebuyck’s greatness to save you when the counterattacks and sustained pressure come isn’t a bad one.
And make no mistake, through five games it’s been a flurry of chances everywhere (via HockeyViz):
We will need a few more weeks to fully assess how good this Winnipeg team is – they are about to play five of their next six games on the road, with tests against the Blues and Seattle Kraken this week.
But the early results are encouraging for the Jets, and if they are a deeper, more polished team this season, they should be a serious contender for the Central Division crown.
Data via Natural Stat Trick, NHL.com, Evolving Hockey, Hockey Reference, Hockey Viz