Oilers, Golden Knights in full sprint to the finish line
Published
Some division races matter more than others. Out in the Pacific, the Edmonton Oilers are turning up the heat on their arch nemesis in the Vegas Golden Knights in a big way.
Edmonton and Vegas have become rivals by force — two elite teams with superstars at the top of the lineup who know postseason clashes are inevitable.
The success has been one-sided for now: Vegas infamously ended the Oilers 2022-23 Stanley Cup bid (Edmonton the road team here, I emphasize) on the way to winning their own title and have reached the Conference Final four times in less than a decade. It’s been a remarkable run.
When you are dealing with a force like this, you must squeeze out any advantage you might find. Vegas may be deep and talented, but with respect to the superstars, none can compare to Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. The McDavid/Draisaitl tandem is electric and stresses every opposing defence to a degree you can’t find elsewhere.
Here’s a second advantage Edmonton can lean into: forcing the Golden Knights to go on the road in the playoffs and beating them heads up, but this time at Rogers Place.
Home-ice advantage may have waned in importance over the past decade or two, but playing at home still matters, and that’s doubly true when talking about these two teams.
The Golden Knights are the last team you want playing at home, as they notoriously buzzsaw teams at T-Mobile Arena. But Vegas simply isn’t the same calibre of team on the road. Compare and contrast Vegas’ home and road splits with that of Edmonton over the past several seasons:
Both teams see an expected performance drawdown when playing on the road, but Vegas’ is particularly outsized.
Vegas’ goal share goes from 56 per cent at T-Mobile Arena to 50 per cent (break even!) away from home. Expected goal rates fall in similar fashion. That puck dominance and unrelenting forecheck just doesn’t have the same bite for Vegas when they’re on the road. It’s a big reason why the Golden Knights’ fourth-ranked even-strength offence at home (3.3 goals per 60 minutes played) shrinks to 18th in the league on the road (2.6 goals per 60 minutes played).
The home-ice advantage wrinkle Vegas brings to the table does seem unique and there are any number of theories as to why it’s so forceful: a deafening crowd and, perhaps, visiting players’ eagerness to enjoy the Vegas nightlife might help things along. How much home ice may be worth in terms of real win probability is debatable; so too is how much more having it might mean to a team like Vegas.
But there is no arguing whether it matters, and in a series where the talent gaps between the teams seem negligible, this can be the sort of X-factor that tips a series in one direction or another.
That’s why the past month of the regular season was so important, as the Oilers have closed a considerable gap in the divisional race. It sets up what should be a compelling race to the finish line: the two sides are separated by a single point in the standings, both playing to a 108-point pace with just over a third of the regular season remaining.
For the Oilers and Golden Knights, it’s a full sprint to the finish line. And to the divisional victor will go the home-ice spoils when it matters most.
Data via Evolving Hockey, NHL.com, Hockey Reference