Special teams are killing the Islanders
Published
It’s not often I use this space to discuss the New York Islanders, a team that has been stuck on the treadmill of mediocrity as an organization for many years now.
But the Islanders, in town for a New Year’s Eve afternoon affair with the Toronto Maple Leafs, are in dire straits right now. Hovering near the cellar of the Metropolitan Division with a 14-15-7 record, Patrick Roy’s team is desperately searching for answers — the level of play deteriorating to such a significant and alarming degree that the head coach even halted a recent practice to apologize to fans in attendance.
I find New York’s ruination this season fascinating on several levels. Chief among them: Chris Drury and the crosstown rival New York Rangers — who appear to be involved In aggressive, and perhaps desperate, nightly trade discussions at this point — have sucked a lot of the negative media coverage away from the Islanders orbit.
But this version of the Islanders isn’t just a bad hockey team. No, this is a team with perhaps the worst special teams combination I can recently recall — a punchless power play paired with a penalty kill leaking goals at every opportunity. It’s not just the brutal ineffectiveness of each; it’s how they’ve conspired to destroy one team’s hope for an entire season.
Let me highlight just how glaring the gap is between this Islanders team and the rest of the league. And remember, the regular season still has 55 or 60 per cent of its games in front of it:
The Islanders are dead last on the power play, averaging 4.0 goals per 60 minutes played (11 goals scored total). The league average is close to double that. Turn it to the penalty kill and it’s somehow worse, with the Islanders conceding 13.6 goals per 60 minutes played (27 goals conceded), also dead last. The team is 16 goals underwater just on special teams in a sample of 37 games. Take it over an 82-game season, and that number grows to -37 in goal differential lost solely from special teams play.
How bad is that number? Consider last season’s San Jose Sharks for a baseline, a truly overpowered team that scored just 42 goals on the power play while conceding 61 goals on the penalty kill (-19 net). Enough said.
Up a man, the Islanders have tried just about everything in terms of forward personnel: Noah Dobson is always anchoring the blueline, typically behind a combination of Bo Horvat, Kyle Palmieri, Brock Nelson, and Anders Lee, though Maxim Tsyplakov and Simon Holmstrom have also played considerable minutes. Mathew Barzal’s injury absence is not helping matters here, and I think it’s why (courtesy HockeyViz) you see such a void in shooting in the areas it matters most, the low slot and between the circles:
That will dry up goals in a blink. And the playmaking has been impossible to find on tape in Barzal’s absence.
It’s a different issue with the penalty kill, as Islanders kill units – led by a very capable Ryan Pulock – have done an adequate job suppressing scoring chances. In other words, goaltending underperformance is contributing to the pain. Ilya Sorokin is stopping just 77 per cent of shots and that is Hasek-esque compared to the veteran Semyon Varlamov, stopping 66 per cent of shots on the kill in his limited action this year.
It sets up what should be a very beatable opponent for the Maple Leafs to ring in 2025. And perhaps just as importantly, an opportunity for the off-and-on Toronto power play to get right for a night.
Data via Natural Stat Trick, NHL.com, HockeyViz, Evolving Hockey