Maple Leafs punishing opponents on the power play

Travis Yost

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The Toronto Maple Leafs’ power play is otherworldly.

There is no other adjective to describe its performance over the first 12 games. Toronto has largely looked like the best team in the North Division so far, and a lot of it ties back to the fact that teams continue to struggle killing penalties against waves of Maple Leafs attackers.

We have seen many stretches over the years where teams have scored power-play goals at a relentless pace, seemingly converting on every other scoring opportunity. That’s an apt way to describe the Maple Leafs out of the gate as well.

Sheldon Keefe’s team (with the power play overseen by assistant Manny Malhotra) has scored 15 goals in those 12 games, and that number would be higher if they were more adept at drawing penalties.

Said another way: A league average power-play unit converts on about 20 per cent of power play opportunities, scoring about 7.5 goals per 60 minutes of play. Toronto is converting on 39 per cent of their opportunities, scoring 16 goals per 60 minutes of play. The daylight between the two is extraordinary.

One of the most encouraging parts about Toronto’s power play – we will get to the individual components of it in a moment – is the fact that it doesn’t seem entirely based on puck luck and white-hot shooting rates alone.

The Maple Leafs also lead the league in expected goals created per 60 minutes on the power play, a byproduct of their ability to generate heavy shot volumes on both units, with many of those coming from dangerous areas inside of the circles and the low slot.

Consider the shot profile of the Maple Leafs power play up a man this season versus last year (23 per cent conversion rate; sixth in the NHL). Data via HockeyViz:

That is a remarkable improvement in both volume and threat level on a power play that was already quite good a season ago. Whenever you see a sudden surge in performance like this, people tend to look at either personnel or structural changes for an explanation. The Leafs still attack the offensive zone with a similar style, but there have been personnel changes. Wayne Simmonds, T.J. Brodie and Joe Thornton have all been given opportunities to start the year.

All three of those names – and Simmonds in particular as the net-front presence on the first power-play unit – have added different wrinkles to both groups, though Simmonds (hand) and Thornton (rib) will be sidelined with injuries for the next few weeks. To the extent that the new personnel are contributing to the increase in performance, one inference is that the skill sets on both units are more complementary, raising the performance bar.

The combinations are a fair bit different from last year’s, and yet it is the productivity for returning skaters on the rise:

The balance between the two units, at least so far, is extraordinary. And that’s by design. Part of the strength of this Maple Leafs team is that they carry a big number of high-impact forwards, and can balance them across the two units.

The luxury of being able to let John Tavares (four goals, two assists on the power play) anchor the team’s second unit – a natural centre option behind Auston Matthews on the first power play – is a significant one, and it makes it awfully difficult for opposing coaching staffs who rarely can find answers on both of their penalty-kill teams.

Even over a full 82-game season, a power play this hot can be enough to take a team into the postseason. In a truncated season like this one, it can make a massive difference in the standings. Look no further than the 2012-13 Pittsburgh Penguins, who scored 42 power-play goals in just 48 games.

That Penguins team won the Atlantic Division by 16 points, and the Eastern Conference by nine points.

Data via NaturalStatTrick, Evolving Hockey, NHL.com, HockeyViz